安吉利斯10月26日电 - 由于柴油价格飙升推动联合包裹（UPS）和联邦快递（FedEx）的燃油附加费率进一步走高，零售商成本增加，有史以来最昂贵的包裹运输年份有望以有史以来最高的假日季送货价格收官。
ANGELES, Oct 26 - The most expensive parcel shipping year on record is on track to end with the highest-ever holiday season delivery prices as soaring diesel prices drive even higher fuel surcharge rates from UPS and FedEx, boosting costs for retailers.
据TD Cowen/AFS货运指数显示，假日相关包裹量在第四季度可能翻倍，届时包括电商购买在内的陆运送货定价预计将比去年同期高出5.8%。
Holiday-related package volume can double during the fourth quarter, when pricing for ground deliveries, including e-commerce purchases, is expected to be 5.8% higher than the same period last year, according to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index.
该指数分析了包括大型零售商在内的1800家发货人的匿名数据，预测速递包裹送货定价将较2025年第四季度跃升13.8%。该指数报告百分比变化而非美元金额，因为包裹成本因重量、尺寸和目的地而异。
Pricing for speedier express parcel deliveries is forecast to jump 13.8% from the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the index, which analyzes anonymized data from 1,800 shippers including major retailers. The index reports percentage change rather than dollar amounts because parcel costs vary based on weight, size and destination.
AFS Logistics首席分析官明淑·贝茨（Mingshu Bates）表示：“燃油是大家考量的重中之重，同样，那方面没有什么真正的好消息。”
"Fuel is front and center in everybody's consideration and, again, no real good news there," said Mingshu Bates, chief analytics officer at AFS Logistics.
据能源信息管理局数据，截至10月19日，美国公路柴油平均价格为每加仑6.28美元，自美国和以色列于2月28日袭击伊朗以来上涨了65%。
The US average on-highway diesel price was $6.28 per gallon as of October 19, according to the Energy Information Administration, up 65% since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
承运商计算方式变更推高成本 但贝茨表示，柴油价格上涨仅占燃油附加费成本的30%不到。由UPS和联邦快递等行业龙头计算方式变更驱动的附加费涨幅远超燃油价格涨幅——甚至在燃油价格不涨时也会上涨。
CHANGES TO CARRIERS' CALCULATIONS BOOST COSTS But diesel price increases account for just under 30% of the fuel surcharge cost, Bates said. Surcharges driven by changes to how industry leaders such as UPS and FedEx calculate them are rising far faster than fuel prices — and go up even when fuel prices do not, she said.
例如，2021年第一季度柴油价格为每加仑2.91美元时，指数燃油附加费为基础运费的7.75%。根据该指数，即使柴油价格回落至该水平，现在的燃油附加费也将是23.75%，大约是原来的三倍。这反映了燃油附加费计算方式的变更如何增加承运商收入并推高零售商成本。
For example, when diesel was $2.91 per gallon in the first quarter of 2021, the index fuel surcharge was 7.75% of the base shipping rate. Even if diesel returned to that price, the fuel surcharge now would be 23.75%, roughly three times higher, according to the index. That reflects how changes in fuel surcharge calculations are raising carriers' revenue and driving up retailers' costs.
根据EIA平均柴油价格6.28美元，依据公司附加费表，UPS的燃油附加费为29.5%，FedEx为29%。
Based on company surcharge tables at the EIA's average diesel price of $6.28, UPS' fuel surcharge is 29.5% and FedEx's is 29%.
UPS表示，其定价反映了其优质服务和基础设施投资。FedEx暂未置评。两家公司将于本周发布季度财报，投资者渴望了解客户是否在抵制附加费。
UPS said its pricing reflects its premium service and infrastructure investments. FedEx did not immediately comment. The companies will report quarterly earnings this week and investors are keen to learn if customers are pushing back on surcharges.
快速增长的快递公司，包括OnTrac、GoFo、UniUni、Jitsu和Veho，覆盖了美国约70%的人口，并增加了运力以应对假日季的更多包裹量，快递跟踪和管理公司ShipMatrix总裁Satish Jindel表示。
Fast-growing delivery firms, including OnTrac, GoFo, UniUni, Jitsu and Veho, cover some 70% of the US population and have added capacity to handle more volume during the holiday season, said Satish Jindel, president of ShipMatrix, a delivery tracking and management firm.
“许多发货人为了降低运输支出，正在采用这些公司的服务，”Jindel说。
"They are getting adoption from many shippers looking to lower their transportation spend," Jindel said.
尽管如此，其中一些公司也采取了高额燃油附加费。根据公司公开的附加费表，截至10月25日当周，OnTrac的西海岸附加费为29.5%。
Nevertheless, some of those companies have also adopted hefty fuel surcharges. OnTrac's West Coast surcharge is 29.5% for the week ending October 25, according to the company's publicly available surcharge table.
分析师表示，零售商和其他快递客户可以通过将业务转向美国邮政署（USPS）或Amazon.com的物流部门来省钱。受到严格监管的USPS于4月首次对大多数包裹征收8%的燃油附加费，同一个月，Amazon开始向卖家的配送费加收3.5%的燃油和物流相关附加费。
Retailers and other delivery customers could save money by shifting their business to the US Postal Service or to Amazon.com's logistics arm. The heavily regulated USPS imposed its first fuel surcharge of 8% on most packages in April, the same month Amazon began adding a 3.5% fuel and logistics-related surcharge to sellers' fulfillment fees.
分析师称，在不同公司间转移快递业务可能带来负面影响。将快递业务拆分给多家公司可能抵消基于量的任何节省，而且假日配送计划提前数月制定，临时更改困难。
Switching deliveries between companies can bring downsides, analysts said. Splitting deliveries between firms can nullify any savings based on volume and holiday delivery plans are set months ahead, making late changes difficult, they said.
为此，摩根大通分析师表示，Amazon短期内不太可能打破UPS和FedEx对市场的控制。
To that end, JPMorgan analysts said it is unlikely Amazon will soon break UPS and FedEx's grip on the market.