新加坡：印度尼西亚减少对新加坡天然气出口的举动，引发了人们对其日益增长的国内能源需求以及将更多天然气留在国内所涉及的经济权衡的质疑，尽管分析人士预计此举对新加坡的即时影响有限。
SINGAPORE: Indonesia's move to reduce natural gas exports to Singapore has raised questions about its growing domestic energy needs and the economic trade-offs involved in keeping more gas at home, even as analysts expect the immediate impact on Singapore to be limited.
印尼于周六（10月24日）开始减少对新加坡的天然气出口，每天将3100万标准立方英尺的天然气从纳土纳群岛和苏门答腊岛转用于满足国内电力需求。
Indonesia began reducing natural gas exports to Singapore on Saturday (Oct 24), diverting 31 million standard cubic feet of gas a day from Natuna and Sumatra to meet domestic electricity needs.
分析人士对亚洲新闻台表示，这可能预示着印度尼西亚在平衡国内能源需求与出口承诺方面将出现长期转变，并对新加坡未来的天然气供应产生影响。
Analysts told CNA that this could signal a longer-term shift in how Indonesia balances its domestic energy requirements against export commitments, with implications for Singapore's future gas supplies.
新加坡国立大学能源研究所首席能源经济学家戴维·布罗德斯托克表示，印尼所称的优先保障国内能源供应的必要性，反映了世界各国面临的挑战：是将能源资源出口，还是将其留作国内使用。
David Broadstock, lead energy economist at the Energy Studies Institute (ESI) at the National University of Singapore, said Indonesia's stated need to prioritise domestic energy supply reflects a challenge faced by countries around the world: whether to export their energy resources or retain them for domestic use.
他说：“如果这确实构成印尼在能源贸易立场上的转向，那么这一趋势有可能会延续并进一步加深。”
"If this does constitute a pivot in Indonesia's stance towards energy trade, then there is a chance that the trend will continue and potentially deepen," he said.
印尼上游油气监管机构表示，削减出口旨在保障国内发电用天然气供应。能源研究所首席研究员罗杰·富凯表示，印尼的经济增长可能正在推高电力需求以及发电所需天然气的需求。
Indonesia's upstream oil and gas regulator SKK Migas said the cuts were intended to safeguard domestic gas supplies for electricity generation Roger Fouquet, principal research fellow at ESI, said Indonesia's economic growth could be driving higher demand for electricity and the natural gas needed to generate it.
他说，印尼经济多年来一直以每年约5%的速度增长，这意味着电力需求也以大致相同的幅度增长。
The Indonesian economy has been growing at about 5 per cent annually for several years, translating into broadly equivalent increases in electricity demand, he said.
数据中心的扩张可能进一步增加这一需求，使未来的电力需求远高于当初与新加坡拟定天然气供应合同时的预期。
The expansion of data centres could add to this demand, pushing future electricity needs much higher than anticipated when the gas supply contracts with Singapore were drawn up.
拉惹勒南国际研究院（RSIS）高级研究员阿尔文·周表示，雅加达可能正在减少天然气出口，以支持非油气行业实现更强劲的增长。
Mr Alvin Chew, a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), said Jakarta may be reducing gas exports in a bid to support stronger growth in non-oil and gas sectors.
他说：“从经济角度看，印尼如果将天然气以更高的价格出口到新加坡，而不是留作国内使用，将获益更多。”
"Economically, Indonesia will stand to gain more if it exports its natural gas to Singapore at higher prices compared to reserving it for its domestic use," he said.
周先生表示，尽管如此，如果在合同协议仍然有效的情况下立即削减出口，而不是通过明确传达的未来时间表来实施，印尼作为主要天然气供应国的国际声誉可能会受损。
All the same, Indonesia's international reputation as a major gas supplier could take a hit if its exports were immediately reduced while contractual agreements remained in place, rather than through a clearly communicated future timeline, said Mr Chew.
他补充说，尽管如此，新加坡与印尼之间牢固的双边关系有助于为恢复原有天然气供应铺平道路，但他也表示，印尼此举背后可能有政治考量。
Nevertheless, strong bilateral ties between Singapore and Indonesia could help pave the way for the original gas supplies to be reinstated, he added, though he also said political considerations could be behind Indonesia’s move.
据CNBC印尼报道，周先生指出，印尼能源与矿产资源部长巴赫利尔·拉哈达利亚10月22日曾警告说，雅加达可能会重新审视对未向其展示“相互尊重”的国家的能源出口。
Mr Chew pointed to remarks by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia on Oct 22 in warning that Jakarta could review energy exports to countries that did not show it "mutual respect", as reported by CNBC Indonesia.
新加坡能源、贸易与工业部长（能源与工业）陈诗龙于周日（10月25日）表示，由于新加坡大部分天然气以全球基准价格定价，削减供应在短期内不太可能对电价产生太大影响。
Singapore's Minister for Energy, Trade and Industry (Energy and Industry) Tan See Leng on Sunday (Oct 25) said the cuts are unlikely to have much impact on electricity prices in the short term as much of Singapore's gas is priced against global benchmarks.
他说：“（印尼）可能有一些国内供应需求和瓶颈，这我们可以理解。”他同时重申了两国之间的牢固关系。
"(Indonesia) may have some domestic supply needs and bottlenecks, which we can understand," he said, reaffirming the strong relationship between the two countries.
ESI的布罗德斯托克博士表示，新加坡和印尼可以借此机会重新讨论如何平衡各自的能源安全需求，同时加强东盟范围内更广泛的能源合作。
ESI's Dr Broadstock said that Singapore and Indonesia could use the opportunity to renew discussions on how to balance their respective energy security needs, while strengthening broader energy cooperation across ASEAN.
长期能源安全 睿咨得能源亚太油气分析主管普拉蒂克·潘迪表示，尽管印尼有充分理由优先考虑国内能源需求，但将更多天然气转用于这些努力需要基础设施投资。
LONGER-TERM ENERGY SECURITY While Indonesia has good reason to prioritise its domestic energy requirements, redirecting more gas to such efforts would require investment in infrastructure, said Mr Prateek Pandey, head of APAC Oil & Gas Analysis at Rystad Energy.
生产商还需要具有商业可行性的价格来维持生产，这给印度尼西亚保留更多天然气供国内使用的努力增添了另一项考量因素。
Producers would also need commercially viable prices to sustain production, adding another consideration to Indonesia's efforts to retain more gas supplies at home.
周一，SKK Migas商业副总裁Rayendra Sidik先生在新加坡出席新加坡国际能源周的一个特别环节并发言。
On Monday, Mr Rayendra Sidik, vice-president of commercial at SKK Migas, was in Singapore to speak in a special session for Singapore International Energy Week.
他说，印度尼西亚面临着平衡日益增长的国内天然气需求的挑战，特别是来自化肥等行业的需求。
He said Indonesia was facing challenges in balancing growing domestic demand for natural gas, particularly from the fertiliser sector among others.
Rayendra先生补充说，来自各行业的需求正在同时增加，这使得规划未来的天然气需求变得困难。
Demand from various sectors was increasing simultaneously, Mr Rayendra added, making it difficult to plan for future gas requirements.
他说，随着印度尼西亚也看到来自超大规模数据中心的需求不断增长，而这些数据中心需要稳定的全天候能源供应，满足这一需求将需要周密的规划。
With Indonesia also seeing growing demand from hyperscalers which require firm, round-the-clock energy supply, meeting this need would require careful planning, he said.
会后，当媒体就出口削减问题向Rayendra先生提问时，他拒绝置评，而是将问题转交给印度尼西亚的部长办公室。
When approached by the media after the session with questions on the export cuts, Mr Rayendra declined to comment, referring queries instead to the ministerial office in Indonesia.
2026年10月26日，SKK Migas商业副总裁Rayendra Sidik先生在新加坡国际能源周的一个小组讨论环节发言。
Mr Rayendra Sidik, vice-president of commercial at SKK Migas, speaking during a panel at Singapore International Energy Week on Oct 26, 2026.
Rystad Energy的Pandey先生表示，未来几年印度尼西亚能转向国内使用的天然气量有限，即将启动的Mako等项目预计将满足巴淡岛的需求，而管道输送能力和其他基础设施限制将制约进一步的转向。
Rystad Energy's Mr Pandey said there were limits to how much more gas Indonesia could divert to domestic use over the next few years, with upcoming projects such as Mako expected to meet Batam's demand, while pipeline capacity and other infrastructure constraints would restrict further diversions.
他补充说，超过一定程度后，削减出口可能会迫使印度尼西亚生产商减产，而不仅仅是将天然气重新导向另一位买家。
Beyond a certain point, he added, cutting exports could force Indonesian producers to reduce production rather than simply redirecting gas to another buyer.
他指出，一些天然气流向的变化早在2024年就已规划，这从Jambi Merang等气田相关的天然气销售和互换协议等安排中便可看出端倪。
He noted that some changes to gas flows had already been planned as early as 2024, signalled by arrangements such as gas sales and swap agreements relating to gas fields such as Jambi Merang.
总体而言，潘德表示，新加坡一直在通过多元化天然气供应为潜在中断做准备，因此最新的削减应该是“可控的”——前提是不出现进一步变化，例如更深度的削减或油气田生产中断。
On the whole, the latest cuts should be "manageable" for Singapore, which has been preparing for potential disruptions by diversifying its gas supply, said Mr Pandey – barring any further changes such as deeper reductions or field production disruptions.
他补充道，虽然预计最新的削减可控，但新加坡更大的考验可能在2028年后到来，届时现有的天然气出口合同将开始到期。
While the latest reduction is expected to be manageable, the bigger test for Singapore could come after 2028, when existing gas export contracts start expiring, he added.
布罗德斯托克博士指出，新加坡此前已因中东冲突导致全球能源供应链中断，而开始审视并重新配置其天然气进口。他补充道，在国际天然气市场寻找替代供应应该“相对容易”。
Dr Broadstock noted that Singapore had already been reviewing and reconfiguring its gas imports following disruptions to global energy supply chains caused by the Middle East conflict. It should be "relatively easy" to find alternative supplies in the international gas market, he added.
富凯博士指出，来自澳大利亚和美国的液化天然气（LNG）是潜在选项。
Dr Fouquet highlighted liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Australia and the United States as potential options.
然而，新加坡拉惹勒南国际问题研究院（RSIS）的周博士表示，扩建液化天然气基础设施和多元化供应，并不会让新加坡对能源风险免疫。
However, RSIS' Dr Chew said that expanding LNG infrastructure and diversifying supply would not make Singapore invulnerable to energy risks.
他说，与其依赖进口资源，不如通过太阳能或核能发展国内发电能力，这将使新加坡获得更高程度的能源独立。
Instead of depending on imported resources, developing domestic electricity generation capacity through solar or nuclear energy would give Singapore a greater degree of energy independence, he said.
他补充道，核能特别是能提供一种低碳电力来源，能够满足持续的电力需求。
Nuclear power, in particular, could provide a low-carbon source of electricity capable of meeting continuous demand, he added.
作为实现电力部门脱碳努力的一部分，新加坡也在扩大低碳电力进口来源。
Singapore is also expanding its sources of low-carbon electricity imports as part of efforts to decarbonise its power sector.
能源市场管理局（EMA）于周一（10月26日）宣布，已授予胜科公用事业有条件批准，进口1.3吉瓦电力至新加坡。胜科公用事业正与MY Energy Consortium和Petrovietnam Technical Services Corporation合作，采购并整合低碳电力，包括来自越南的海上风电和来自马来西亚的太阳能发电，目标在2035年前开始进口。
The Energy Market Authority (EMA) on Monday (Oct 26) announced that it had granted conditional approval to Sembcorp Utilities to import 1.3 gigawatts of electricity into Singapore Sembcorp Utilities is working with MY Energy Consortium and Petrovietnam Technical Services Corporation to source and integrate low-carbon electricity, including offshore wind from Vietnam and solar power from Malaysia, with imports targeted to begin by 2035.
新加坡还已有条件地批准并发放了来自澳大利亚、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和越南的电力进口项目的许可证。
Singapore has also granted conditional approvals and licences to electricity import projects from Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam.
然而，布罗德斯托克博士警告称，各国优先满足国内能源需求的影响可能不仅限于天然气进口。
However, Dr Broadstock cautioned that the implications of countries prioritising their domestic energy needs could extend beyond natural gas imports.
他说，如果这种做法在该地区变得更加普遍，新加坡可能需要仔细审视其能源依赖情况，包括低碳电力进口。
If such an approach becomes more widespread in the region, Singapore may need to carefully review its energy dependencies including low-carbon electricity imports, he said.
总理黄循财于2026年10月25日在2026年人民行动党党庆暨大会上发表演讲。
Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers an address at the 2026 PAP Party Awards and Conference on Oct 25, 2026.
短期影响有限 尽管存在这些长期担忧，所有四位分析师均告诉《海峡时报》（CNA），最新的削减不太可能显著影响新加坡的能源安全或电价，这与政府早前的评估一致。
LIMITED IMMEDIATE IMPACT Despite these longer-term concerns, all four analysts told CNA the latest reduction was unlikely to significantly affect Singapore's energy security or electricity prices, echoing the government's earlier assessment.
新加坡能源研究所（ESI）的布罗德斯托克博士表示，削减本身不会影响国际天然气价格，这使得其影响更容易控制。
The cut would not itself affect international gas prices, making its impact more manageable, said Dr Broadstock of ESI.
能源市场管理局（EMA）周六表示，印度尼西亚天然气出口的削减量不到新加坡日需求的2%，并补充称该国拥有充足的供应和应急计划来应对此类中断。
EMA on Saturday said that the cut in Indonesian natural gas exports amounts to less than 2 per cent of Singapore's daily demand, adding that the country had sufficient supplies and contingency plans in place to manage such disruptions.
天然气约占新加坡发电量的95%，供气来源包括来自印度尼西亚和马来西亚的管道气，以及来自国际供应商的液化天然气（LNG）船运。
Natural gas accounts for about 95 per cent of Singapore's electricity generation with supplies coming through pipelines from Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as LNG shipments from international suppliers.
总理黄循财周日（10月25日）在人民行动党大会上发言时表示，新加坡期望各方遵守其商业天然气供应协议。“新加坡的天然气进口商将采取必要措施，维护其在这些合同下的权利和利益，”他说。
Speaking at the People's Action Party convention on Sunday (Oct 25), Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said Singapore expects all parties to honour their commercial gas supply agreements "Singapore's gas importer will take the necessary steps to protect its rights and interests under these contracts," he said.
黄循财补充说，新加坡一直在为这类风险做准备，通过投资液化天然气接收站，使其能够从不同国家进口天然气，而不必完全依赖管道。
Mr Wong added that Singapore had been preparing for such risks by investing in LNG terminals, allowing it to import gas from different countries without relying solely on pipelines.
布罗德斯托克博士表示，如果必须在现货市场购买额外的液化天然气以满足发电需求，可能会出现一些短期价格波动。不过他补充说，涉及的量“相当适度”，成本的任何变化也是如此。
Dr Broadstock said there could be some short-term price disruptions if additional LNG had to be purchased on the spot market to meet power generation needs. However, he added, the volume involved was "fairly modest", as would be any changes in costs.