Gadi Eisenkot’s recently formed centrist party, Yashar!, could emerge as the biggest single party in the next parliament, polls predict Paul Nuki is Global Health Security Editor at The Telegraph. A senior journalist and former editor at the Sunday Times, he leads coverage on global security threats including epidemics, biosecurity, and international health crises. He has also written and reported extensively on the conflict in Israel and the Middle East.

11:27am GMT If Benjamin Netanyahu loses office on Tuesday, the world will focus on the downfall of the most controversial prime minister in Israel’s history.

Within the country, though, it could mark a much more fundamental social shift: the end of political dominance of the country’s Ashkenazi establishment, which traces its roots to central Europe.

If the polls are correct, Gadi Eisenkot – a Mizrahi Jew of Moroccan heritage and former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) general – could become the first non-Ashkenazi prime minister of Israel.

Experts say it would mark an important symbolic moment for a group that, for decades, has faced discrimination, but gradually risen to dominate the country demographically.

The story of the rise of the Mizrahi – Israeli Jews who trace their heritage to the Middle East, North Africa and Asia – has not been an easy one, and racism still persists.

Two weeks ago, Yinon Magal, a prominent Right-wing TV host, caused a political firestorm by describing Mr Eisenkot as a “monkey” who was being secretly managed by liberal “Ashkenazi elites”.

Gadi Eisenkot places his hands on the Western Wall as he prays in the Old City of Jerusalem on Oct 22 He said: “He’s a monkey! He’s a monkey! ... They took a Mizrahi-Moroccan ... It’s like we can’t see reality. The emperor has no clothes.”In another alleged example of racism, Sara Netanyahu, Mr Netanyahu’s wife, has been sued for allegedly calling a member of her household staff an “undeveloped Moroccan”, which she denies.

Before Israel’s founding in 1948, Mizrahi communities flourished in cities across the Middle East and North Africa, including Baghdad, Casablanca and Tehran. But amidst state-sanctioned persecution across Arab and Muslim countries, more than 850,000 Jews were expelled or forced to flee.

Almost 600,000 arrived in Israel from 1948 to 1972, most of them destitute, according to the American Jewish Committee and Encyclopaedia Britannica. On arrival, they faced severe societal and institutional discrimination from the ruling Ashkenazi establishment.

Yemenite Jews at an immigrants camp in Israel in 1950 Many were funnelled into ma’abarot – overcrowded camps lacking basic amenities – and pressured to abandon their traditional Arabic dialects, culture and religious practices in favour of a Westernised ideal.

When the camps were closed, Mizrahi families were redirected to development towns along Israel’s volatile periphery or impoverished urban slums.

This social friction permanently transformed Israeli politics. In 1959, riots broke out in Haifa, where North African immigrants protested against police brutality and neglect. By 1971, second-generation Mizrahi youths in Jerusalem’s Musrara neighbourhood had formed the Israeli Black Panthers.

Taking inspiration from the US civil rights struggle, they demanded fair housing, educational funding, and an end to the paternalism of the then-dominant Israeli Labor party.

It was Mizrahi voters that helped propel Menachem Begin’s Right-wing Likud party to power in 1977 – and they have been a force to be reckoned with ever since.

Members of the Israeli Black Panthers at Tel Aviv University in 1972 For Mr Netanyahu, the Mizrahi working classes have provided political rocket fuel for more than 20 years. Opponents have sarcastically described him as the “Ashkenazi Messiah” of the Mizrahi Right.

Sir Max Hastings, the historian and former editor of The Telegraph, described in his memoirs a conversation with Mr Netanyahu in the 1970s that captured his approach.

He wrote: “He joked about the Golani Brigade, the Israeli infantry force in which so many men were North African or Yemenite Jews. ‘They’re ok as long as they’re led by white officers.’ He grinned.”Mr Netanyahu denied the story, but his command of the Mizrahi electorate may be coming to an end.

Benjamin Netanyahu speaks as he tours Mahane Yehuda market in Jerusalem on Friday Despite ongoing struggles for full economic parity, Mizrahi Jews have become a central driving force of Israel’s demographic, cultural, and political reality. Mizrahi figures have climbed to the top of many institutions – but not yet become prime minister.

Momi Dahan, an academic at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said ethnicity was no longer a predictor of voting patterns.

He said: “The differences between the two groups is not a big one today. Once you account for differences in income and other things, the difference in voting patterns disappears completely.

“As in other countries, including the UK, the main predictor is education. There is still a gap in educational attainment between Mizrahi and Ashkenazi groups in Israel, but it is not so great today.”Mr Eisenkot is, in many ways, a prime example. A foot soldier in the Golani Brigade at about the time Mr Netanyahu and Sir Max met for dinner, he rose to become head of the elite unit before becoming head of the IDF from 2015 to 2019.

Gadi Eisenkot with his son, Gal Eisenkot, who was killed while fighting in Gaza in December 2023 Polls predict his recently formed centrist party Yashar! (meaning “straight” or “honest”) will emerge as the biggest single party in the next parliament.

Yashar! sits in an anti-Netanyahu bloc with three other Jewish parties. And although they are not expected to win the 61 seats needed to form a simple majority government, polls suggest they will beat Mr Netanyahu’s bloc, giving them a strong chance of forming a minority government.

Manuel Trajtenberg, a senior Israeli economist and friend of Mr Eisenkot, said that if the former general became prime minister it would be a “source of pride for some Mizrahi voters”, but their support was not automatic.

“Is it going to change the perceptions of the Mizrahi in Israel? For some, yes, but for others it’s going to take time. For many, Likud has been their party for generations,” he said.

Dahlia Scheindlin, an American-Israeli pollster, also warned against assuming traditional Mizrahi voters would view Mr Eisenkot as a replacement for Mr Netanyahu.

She cited Amir Peretz’s leadership of Labor in 2006 as a cautionary example: excitement about his Moroccan background did not, in the end, reverse the party’s decline. She added that a candidate’s ethnicity alone would not outweigh ideology, historic grievances, and party identification.

On the other hand, Ms Scheindlin said that some polling data suggest turnout may be better for the opposition. There was a “four to five-point gap in self-reported turnout”, which suggested supporters of the governing coalition may be “less afraid if the other side wins”.

She added: “I don’t know, but I feel like maybe they’re not entirely sorry if Netanyahu goes.”At the Mahane Yehuda Market in Jerusalem, long a stronghold of the Mizrahi Right, there was some evidence of this on Sunday. The owners of several businesses said they were supporting the opposition, but did not want to go on the record for fear of upsetting their customers or landlords.

Idan, a stallholder selling spices, describes Mr Netanyahu as a ‘lame horse’ Others said they were voting for smaller Zionist parties, including the Reservists, a Right-wing party that has not ruled out aligning with Mr Eisenkot’s anti-Netanyahu camp.

Safo, a 31-year-old Mizrahi immigrant from Ethiopia, said Mr Eisenkot could be “trusted on security” and that he was going to vote for the Reservists with the economy and national unity in mind.

He said: “Now everyone will take care of security. We need someone who will stop the fighting and take care of the people and the money.”Others said they would be voting for parties on the hard-Right instead of Likud. Boaz, 65, said he liked Mr Eisenkot “as a man” but saw him as part of the “garbage Left” and would not vote for him.

Shalev, 20, says he will vote for Itamar Ben-Gvir Shalev, a 20-year-old first-time Mizrahi voter, said he would be voting for Itamar Ben-Gvir, the minister of national security and leader of the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party.

“For me, they protect us much more than the army. The army is under the government. They [Otzma Yehudit] do what they think – like the terrorists.”Edan, a stallholder selling spices, described Mr Netanyahu as a “lame horse” and said he would be voting for the Reservists because he wanted “no wars and no mess”. He said: “Bibi is going home. We need something new, something fresh.”