字号·· | 护眼
英国广播公司

“卢拉大军”WhatsApp聊天群如何帮助扭转巴西选举局势How 'Lula's Army' WhatsApp chat helped turn Brazil election around

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

尽管民调显示现任总统将败选,卢拉的支持者仍大规模动员起来Lula's supporters mobilised en masse despite polls pointing to a defeat for the incumbent

一个为支持路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦连任竞选而创建的WhatsApp频道,被盟友认为帮助实现了近期巴西政治中最不可能的逆转之一。

A WhatsApp channel created to support Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election campaign is being credited by allies with helping deliver one of the most unlikely comebacks in recent Brazilian politics.

巴西这位左翼总统曾一度落后于右翼挑战者弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗,但仅用三周时间就扭转了局势。

Brazil's left-wing president had been trailing right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, but managed to turn the race around in just three weeks.

在许多人怀疑卢拉能否逆转结果之际,一个名为“卢拉军团”的WhatsApp频道应运而生,并迅速增长至1080万关注者。

At a moment when many doubted Lula could reverse the result, a WhatsApp channel called Lula's Army emerged, and rapidly grew to 10.8 million followers.

由国会议员安德烈·贾诺内斯领导的这一行动,鼓励支持者分享视频、推广话题标签并招募新选民。

Led by Congressman André Janones, the operation encouraged supporters to share videos, promote hashtags and recruit new voters.

其在两轮投票间隙的爆发式增长尤为引人注目,因为它似乎扭转了巴西政治中长期存在的失衡局面。

Its dramatic growth between the two rounds was particularly notable because it appeared to reverse a long-standing imbalance in Brazilian politics.

多年来,与前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗结盟的保守派被普遍认为主导了在线政治动员,尤其是在WhatsApp和Telegram等平台上。

For years, conservatives aligned with former President Jair Bolsonaro had been widely seen as dominating online political mobilisation, especially on platforms such as WhatsApp and Telegram.

“卢拉军团”的出现让许多支持者相信,巴西左翼终于找到了在数字竞技场竞争的方法。这一转变尤为重要,因为自雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗2018年当选总统以来,社交媒体在巴西政治中发挥了核心作用,WhatsApp网络成为政治竞选的一个显著特征。

The emergence of Lula's Army convinced many supporters that Brazil's left had finally found a way to compete in a digital arena. The shift was particularly significant because social media has played a central role in Brazilian politics since Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 election victory, when WhatsApp networks became a defining feature of political campaigning.

“卢拉军团”的信息通常包含现成的模板,供关注者分享给亲友。每条信息都给支持者分配具体任务,旨在提升卢拉在社交媒体上的曝光度。

Lula's Army messages often included ready-made templates for followers to share with friends and family. Each one assigned supporters a specific task aimed at boosting Lula's visibility on social media.

贾诺内斯经常指示他的“部队”“引爆”最新竞选视频,或帮助新话题标签“起飞”。

Janones frequently instructed his "troops" to "blow up" the latest campaign video or help a new hashtag "take off".

“伙计们,紧急!”、“别睡觉”、“任务完成前不许吃饭!”、“还有一项任务你们才能解散”,只是其中一些指令。

"Guys, urgent!", "Don't go to sleep yet", "No food before the mission!", and "I have one more task before you're dismissed", were some of the instructions. On the eve of the election, the congressman also hosted a 24-hour live event - dubbed the "turnaround livestream" - even as polls continued to suggest a victory for Bolsonaro. The tactic worked, despite worries by some members of the Workers' Party that Janones's often-confrontational style on social media could undermine the more moderate image they hoped to project for Lula.

在大选前夕,这位议员还主持了一场24小时直播活动——被称为“逆转直播”——即使民调仍持续显示博尔索纳罗将获胜。

In his victory speech, Lula referred to Janones as "our General" and thanked him for "raising the morale of our troops every day".

尽管工人党内部部分成员担心,雅诺内斯在社交媒体上往往采取对抗性风格,可能会削弱他们希望为卢拉塑造的温和形象,但这一策略奏效了。

Measuring the electoral impact of online mobilisation, however, is notoriously difficult.

在胜选演说中,卢拉称雅诺内斯为“我们的将军”,并感谢他“每天都在提振我们部队的士气”。然而,衡量网络动员的选举影响力却是出了名的困难。

While Lula's allies credit Lula's Army with helping fuel the comeback, political scientists caution that it is impossible to determine how many votes, if any, were directly influenced by the WhatsApp operation. Political scientist Denilde Holzhacker argues that a shift in Lula's campaign strategy was key to his comeback.

卢拉在安德烈·雅诺内斯的重大贡献奏效后,称他为“将军”Lula called André Janones a "General" after his major contribution paid off

虽然卢拉的盟友认为“卢拉军团”助力了卢拉的翻盘,但政治学家警告说,无法确定WhatsApp行动究竟直接影响了多少选票(如果有的话)。

Rather than relying solely on online engagement, she says the Workers' Party candidate succeeded in connecting digital campaigning with grassroots mobilisation on the ground.

政治学家德尼尔德·霍尔扎克认为,卢拉竞选策略的转变是其翻盘的关键。

According to Holzhacker, the campaign intensified local efforts and adapted its messaging - linking a Bolsonaro victory with concerns about potential changes to social programmes and the loss of rights.

她表示,工人党候选人并非仅依赖网络互动,而是成功将数字化竞选与地面基层动员相结合。

"It was to Lula's credit that he recognised his own weakness and completely changed his style," she says.

据霍尔扎克介绍,竞选团队加强了地方层面的努力,并调整了信息传递策略——将博索纳罗获胜与对社会项目可能发生变化及权利丧失的担忧联系起来。

"And Janones managed to do something that had seemed unthinkable for Brazil's left - dominate social media."

她说:“卢拉值得肯定,因为他认识到自己的弱点,并彻底改变了风格。而雅诺内斯做到了一件对巴西左翼来说似乎不可思议的事——主导社交媒体。”相比之下,霍尔扎克认为,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗进入决选时过于自信必胜,未能像对手那样有效地向支持者传达信息。

By contrast, Holzhacker argues that Flávio Bolsonaro entered the run-off overly confident of victory and failed to communicate his message to his supporters as effectively. Sociologist and political scientist Mayra Goulart, a professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, also cautions against attributing Lula's comeback solely to social media.

社会学家、政治学家、里约热内卢联邦大学教授迈拉·古拉特也警告,不应将卢拉的翻盘单纯归功于社交媒体。

"It was a combination of social media and street-level mobilisation," she says.

“这是社交媒体与街头动员相结合的结果,”她说。“现实世界实现了一种动员形式,能够降低弃权率并说服摇摆选民。”在她看来,卢拉的支持者成功将线上的热情转化为现实世界的政治参与。

"The physical world enabled a form of mobilisation capable of reducing abstention and persuading undecided voters." In her view, Lula's supporters succeeded in turning online enthusiasm into real-world political engagement. "Those committed to Lula's victory worked to bring people together and persuade them to vote," Goulart says.

“致力于卢拉获胜的人们努力把大家聚集起来,并说服他们去投票,”古拉尔说。

She argues that the effort not only helped increase turnout but could also prove valuable for Lula's next administration.

她认为,这种努力不仅有助于提高投票率,对卢拉的下一届政府也可能大有裨益。

"I believe this collective effort was an important learning experience and will prove valuable for a government that still faces many battles ahead.

“我相信,这种集体努力是一次重要的学习经历,将对仍面临许多战斗的政府大有裨益。它不仅有助于降低弃权率,还转化了大量摇摆选民。”卢拉本人也暗示,推动他东山再起的动员可能会塑造他未来几年的执政方式。

It not only helped reduce abstention, but also converted a significant number of undecided voters." Lula himself suggested that the mobilisation behind his comeback could shape the way he governs in the years ahead.

在胜选演讲中,他说大选教会了他许多经验,并承诺改变巴西的治理方式。

In his victory speech, he said the election had taught him many lessons and pledged to change the way Brazil is governed.

“我们将让民众在决策中拥有更大的话语权,数字传播将在我的政府中发挥重要得多的作用。”

"We are going to give people a greater say in decision-making, and digital communication will play a much bigger role in my government."

阅读媒体原文 ↗