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伊朗主办沙特阿拉伯及地区大国会议,外界担忧战火重燃Iran hosts Saudi Arabia and regional powers as fears grow of return to war

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土耳其、巴基斯坦和沙特阿拉伯的领导人及官员于10月5日在沙特阿拉伯利雅得出席土耳其、沙特阿拉伯和巴基斯坦之间的麦加防御协定会议。沙特通讯社/供图/路透社/档案照片Leaders and officials of Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia take part in the Mecca defense pact meeting between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 5. Saudi Press Agency/Handout/Reuters/File

沙特阿拉伯及其盟友周一派遣高级安全官员前往伊朗举行会谈。外界担心,美国和以色列可能发动新一轮攻势,使中东陷入进一步动荡。

Saudi Arabia and its allies dispatched top security officials to Iran for talks on Monday amid fears of a fresh US-Israeli offensive that could plunge the Middle East into further instability.

巴基斯坦军方领导人阿西姆·穆尼尔和土耳其情报负责人易卜拉欣·卡林与沙特王子哈立德·本·萨勒曼一同抵达德黑兰,与伊朗高级官员会晤,包括国家安全负责人穆赫辛·雷扎伊和总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬。

Pakistani military chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin joined Saudi Prince Khalid bin Salman in Tehran for meetings with Iran’s top officials, including national security chief Mohsen Rezaei and President Masoud Pezeshkian.

德黑兰会谈举行之际,中东局势正值紧张时刻,外界日益猜测唐纳德·特朗普总统可能在下周中期选举后下令对伊朗发动新的打击。此次会谈也标志着自也门受伊朗支持的胡塞武装上个月升级对沙特目标的袭击以来,伊朗与沙特之间的首次高层接触。

The meeting in Tehran comes at a tense moment in the Middle East as speculation grows that President Donald Trump could order new strikes on Iran after next week’s midterm elections. It also marks the first high-level contact between Iran and Saudi Arabia since Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis escalated attacks against Saudi targets last month.

沙特外交部官员拉伊德·克里姆利表示,会议将讨论“持续危机”相关各方之间的“局势降级”。伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加埃对记者表示,会谈可能成为“建立地区安全框架”的前奏。巴加埃还说:“我们一直强调,地区安全只能依靠地区国家的意愿和安全考量来保障。”

The meeting will discuss “de-escalation” between parties involved in the “ongoing crisis,” a Saudi Foreign Ministry official, Rayed Krimly, said. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, told reporters the talks may serve as a prelude to “establishing a regional security framework.”“We have consistently emphasized that regional security can only be ensured by relying on the will and security considerations of the countries of the region,” Baghaei added.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于10月6日在马里兰州斯帕罗兹波因特与国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯握手。吉姆·沃森/法新社/盖蒂图片社US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in Sparrows Point, Maryland, on October 6. Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

沙特、土耳其和巴基斯坦代表“麦加联盟”——一个由该地区三个最大强国新组建的联盟。该条约规定对一国的攻击即被视为对所有成员国的攻击,因其将拥有核武器的巴基斯坦、土耳其的军事力量和沙特的财力联合在一起而受到关注。

Saudi, Turkey and Pakistan represent the Mecca Alliance – a newly formed coalition of three of the region’s largest powers. The pact, under which an attack on one is deemed an attack against all, has drawn scrutiny for uniting nuclear-armed Pakistan, Turkey’s military strength and Saudi Arabia’s financial resources.

自2月战争爆发以来,巴基斯坦一直是华盛顿与德黑兰之间的关键中间人。

Pakistan has been a key intermediary between Washington and Tehran since the war started in February.

国际危机组织(ICG)智库的伊朗问题高级分析师哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹对CNN表示:“这次会面的重要意义主要在于时机和参与的官员。它发生在伊朗与美国之间爆发新一轮战争的风险正在上升之际,而麦加条约的三个成员国都有着直接的安全利益。”哈立德·本·萨勒曼——沙特王室成员、沙特事实上的领导人王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的兄弟——此次访问令观察人士感到意外。

“The significance of the meeting lies primarily in its timing and the officials involved,” Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, told CNN. “It comes at a moment when the risk of another round of war between Iran and the United States is growing, and the three members of the Mecca Pact have direct security interests at stake.”The visit by Khalid bin Salman – a Saudi royal and brother of the kingdom’s de-facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – surprised observers.

伊朗和沙特代表着相互竞争的宗教意识形态,数十年来一直陷入地区对抗,并在今年早些时候美国和以色列对伊朗伊斯兰共和国发动战争后,最终演变为正面冲突。

Iran and Saudi Arabia represent competing religious ideologies and have been locked in a regional rivalry for decades, culminating in an outright confrontation earlier this year after the US and Israel launched a war on the Islamic Republic.

今年2月,美国和以色列在杀死伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊以及其大部分军事高层和顶尖核科学家的同时,伊朗打击了华盛顿的地区盟友,包括沙特阿拉伯。伊朗的盟友和代理人,包括在伊拉克和也门的那些,也打击了沙特的石油设施和民用基础设施,给这个王国带来了前所未有的压力。

Iran struck Washington’s regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, after the US and Israel killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with much of his military brass and top nuclear scientists in February. Iran’s allies and proxies, including those in Iraq and Yemen, have also struck Saudi oil facilities and civilian infrastructure, putting unprecedented pressure on the kingdom.

3月3日拍摄的美国驻利雅得大使馆总部。法新社/盖蒂图片社The US embassy headquarters in Riyadh is pictured on March 3. AFP/Getty Images

中东国家担心,在中东经历了八个月的不稳定之后,美国对伊朗的新一轮攻势将招致伊朗的进一步报复。

Countries in the Middle East are concerned that a fresh US offensive against Iran would invite further Iranian retaliation after eight months of instability in the Middle East.

两名美国官员告诉CNN,目前该地区已部署了足够的美国兵力来执行可能的袭击。消息人士还称,美国新一轮军事行动的范围很可能超出单纯“修剪草坪”或通过打击雷达、发射装置及其他可迅速重建的伊朗资产来维持现状的努力——自特朗普今年早些时候叫停全面作战行动以来,情况一直如此。

Sufficient US forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, two US officials told CNN. The scope of new US military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.

在数月来伊朗对美国盟友邻国发动报复性导弹和无人机袭击之后,德黑兰降低了打击强度,转而将战略重点放在制造经济不确定性上,试图封锁每日运输全球五分之一石油和天然气的唯一水道。

After months of retaliatory Iranian missile and drone projectiles on its US-allied neighbors, Tehran has decreased the intensity of strikes, instead focusing its strategy on creating economic uncertainty by trying to block the only waterway used by vessels transporting a fifth of the world’s oil and gas daily.

德黑兰呼吁该地区国家撤除美国基地,并结束在防务上对华盛顿的依赖。伊朗在该地区的大多数邻国都拥有美国武装的军队,但由于担心华盛顿对其盟友防御承诺的可靠性,这些国家已开始缓慢推进武器来源多元化,并正式确立新的军事联盟。

Tehran has called on countries in the region to remove US bases and end their reliance on Washington for defense. Most of Iran’s regional neighbors field militaries armed by the US, but have slowly begun diversifying their arsenals and formalizing new military alliances amid concerns over Washington’s commitment to defending its allies.

以色列军事情报部门伊朗处前负责人丹尼·西特里诺维茨写道,“麦加联盟”是发展更加“独立的地区安全架构”的“更广泛努力”的一部分。西特里诺维茨补充道:“直接与德黑兰接触的决定同样意义重大。这不仅体现了对伊朗政权的承认,也体现出一种理解,即伊朗仍是地区核心参与者,其影响力不能被简单忽视。”伊朗官员对该倡议表示欢迎,包括前外长穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫在内的一些人将其视为一个机会,可借此推动该地区建立更广泛的安全框架,并摆脱对美国的依赖。然而,国际危机组织的阿齐兹表示,这些进展尚不意味着外交上的立即突破。

The Mecca Alliance is part of a “broader effort” to develop a more “independent regional security architecture,” Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence, wrote on“The decision to engage directly with Tehran is equally significant,” Citrinowicz added. “It reflects not only recognition of the Iranian regime but also an understanding that Iran remains a central regional player whose influence cannot simply be ignored.”Iranian officials have welcomed the initiative, and some, including former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, see it as an opportunity to move toward a broader security framework between the region and away from dependence on the US. Yet, these developments do not yet signal an immediate diplomatic breakthrough, Azizi of the Crisis Group said.

他说:“德黑兰希望获得可信的保证,确保任何协议都能防止再次发生军事攻击,而很难看出沙特阿拉伯、土耳其或巴基斯坦如何能提供这样的保证,或对特朗普施加足够影响以确保这些保证。”

“Tehran wants credible guarantees that any agreement would prevent another military attack, and it is difficult to see how Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Pakistan could provide such guarantees or exert sufficient influence over Trump to secure them,” he said.

阿齐兹补充说:“除非这些国家拿出能够改变德黑兰或华盛顿盘算的新东西,否则这次会议不太可能取得实质性突破。目前来看,这更像是为防止战火重燃而做的最后一刻尝试,而非一个新外交进程的开端。”

“Unless these countries bring something new to the table that could change the calculations in either Tehran or Washington, the meeting is unlikely to produce a substantive breakthrough,” Azizi added. “For now, it looks more like a last-minute attempt to prevent the resumption of war than the beginning of a new diplomatic process.”

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