以色列将于10月27日举行大选，总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡面临着权力的终极考验。这是自2023年加沙战争爆发以来以色列举行的首次大选，此时这位总理正面临腐败审判、国际刑事法院的逮捕令以及多场战争。
Benjamin Netanyahu faces the ultimate test for power as Israel heads to the polls on October 27. The elections in Israel, which are the first to be held since the war in Gaza broke out in 2023, come as the prime minister faces a corruption trial, an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court and multiple wars.
过去三年里，以色列至少处于四场战争的最前沿——加沙地带对哈马斯、黎巴嫩对真主党、2025年的伊朗以及2026年再次面对伊朗，但这一次是与美国并肩作战。除了这些战争和腐败审判，这位以色列总理正寻求第三个连续任期，也是他总共的第四个任期。
In the past three years, Israel has been at the forefront of at least four wars - Gaza Strip against Hamas, Lebanon against Hezbollah, Iran in 2025 and Iran again in 2026, but this time, alongside the United States. Along with this and a corruption trial, the Israeli prime minister is eyeing a third consecutive term, and his fourth overall.
随着投票今日开始，一个关键问题依然存在——“比比”能否保住他的政治权力？如果他落选，能否因针对他的指控受审？针对内塔尼亚胡的案件国内腐败审判总理正在三起案件中受审。这些案件指控内塔尼亚胡犯有受贿、欺诈和背信罪。根据以色列政策论坛的资料，以色列总理在以下案件中被起诉：案件1000（欺诈、背信）：内塔尼亚胡及其家庭成员涉嫌向以色列商人阿农·米尔钱和澳大利亚商人詹姆斯·帕克索取并接受礼物，以换取帮助。
With the polls set to begin today, a key question remains - Will 'Bibi' be able to preserve his political power? And if he loses, can he be tried for the charges against him? The cases against NetanyahuThe corruption trial at homeThe prime minister is on trial in three cases. These cases accuse Netanyahu of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. As per the Israel Policy Forum, the Israeli PM was indicted in the following cases -Case 1000 (fraud, breach of trust): Netanyahu and his family members allegedly requested and accepted gifts from Israeli businessman Arnon Milchan and Australian businessman James Packer in exchange for favours.
案件2000（欺诈、背信）：内塔尼亚胡涉嫌试图接受《新消息报》发行人阿农·莫泽斯提出的贿赂交易，即内塔尼亚胡将设法限制竞争对手《以色列今日报》的发行量，以换取《新消息报》给予有利报道；《新消息报》被认为是以色列最大的付费报纸。
Case 2000 (fraud, breach of trust): Netanyahu allegedly attempted to accept a bribery deal from Yediot Ahronot publisher Arnon Mozes, in which Netanyahu would try to limit the circulation of Israel Hayom, a rival publication, in exchange for favourable coverage in Yediot Ahronot, which is considered Israel's largest paid newspaper.
案件4000（受贿、欺诈、背信）：内塔尼亚胡担任通信部长期间，涉嫌接受媒体大亨绍洛·埃洛维奇的贿赂交易，即他作出有利于该大亨经济利益的监管决定，以换取《瓦拉新闻网》给予正面报道；《瓦拉新闻网》是一个以色列网络门户和在线新闻媒体。
Case 4000 (bribery, fraud, breach of trust): As communications minister, Netanyahu allegedly accepted a bribery deal from media mogul Shaul Elovitch in which he made regulatory decisions that financially benefited the mogul in exchange for positive coverage on Walla News, which is an Israeli web portal and online news outlet.
2020年，时任总检察长阿维哈伊·曼德尔布利特制定了一项利益冲突安排，禁止内塔尼亚胡介入或影响会影响其审判的事务。这些事务包括：任命执法、最高法院和耶路撒冷地方法院的人员，推动可能影响诉讼程序的立法，以及影响与其审判有关的部长和官员。
In 2020, then-Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit drew up a conflict-of-interest arrangement, barring Netanyahu from involvement in or influence over matters that would affect his trial. These included appointments to law enforcement, the Supreme Court, and the Jerusalem District Court, introducing legislation that could affect proceedings, and influencing ministers and officials related to his trial.
然而，在以利库德集团领导的联合政府重新掌权后，以色列总理发起了一项司法改革，旨在遏制司法机构对公共政策和立法的影响。该改革还要求限制最高法院的司法审查权，引发了全国大规模抗议和总罢工。内塔尼亚胡的改革仍处于部分且有争议的状态，因为许多关键措施被法院驳回，且随着加沙战争爆发，司法改革退居次要地位。
However, after returning to power with the Likud-led coalition, the Israeli Prime Minister launched a judicial overhaul intended to curb the judiciary's influence over public policy and lawmaking. The overhaul, which also called for the limiting of the Supreme Court's powers for judicial review, led to mass nationwide protests and a general strike. Netanyahu's overhaul remains in a partial and contested state, as many of the key measures struck by the court, and with the start of the war in Gaza, the judicial overhaul took a backseat.
2024年12月，内塔尼亚胡在耶路撒冷地方法院的腐败案中出庭作证，且在……在审判期间，以色列还发现自己陷入了另外两场战争——一场是在黎巴嫩对阵真主党，另一场是在美国协助下对阵伊朗。总理否认了针对他的所有指控，并将这些案件和起诉称为“猎巫行动”。支持内塔尼亚胡的是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普，他呼吁予以赦免，称“比比”是“为以色列做了这么多事的伟大英雄”，也是一名“战士”。
“投票给比比当总理”：特朗普重申支持内塔尼亚胡加沙战争罪行与国际刑事法院逮捕令2024年11月21日，国际刑事法院对本雅明·内塔尼亚胡发出了逮捕令。
In December 2024, Netanyahu took the stand at Jerusalem District Court in the corruption case, and amid his trial, Israel also found itself engaged in two other wars - one in Lebanon against Hezbollah and the other against Iran with the US. The prime minister has denied all charges against him and referred to the cases and indictment as a "witch hunt." Backing Netanyahu is US President Donald Trump, who has called for a pardon as Bibi is a "great hero, who has done so much" for Israel, and a "warrior".'Vote for Bibi for PM': Trump renews pitch for NetanyahuWar crimes in Gaza and an ICC warrantOn November 21, 2024, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu.
以色列总理被指控在加沙地带对巴勒斯坦人民实施所谓的战争罪和反人类罪。
The Israeli prime minister was accused of carrying out alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.
内塔尼亚胡面临的指控出现之际，正值关于以色列在加沙实施种族灭绝的指控不断升级，此前激进组织哈马斯在以色列南部发动恐怖袭击，造成约1200人死亡。除内塔尼亚胡外，国际刑事法院还对前国防部长约亚夫·加兰特发出了逮捕令。
内塔尼亚胡否认针对他的指控，并将以色列在巴勒斯坦领土上的行动定义为“自卫行为”。
The charges against Netanyahu came in the midst of the allegations of Israeli genocide in Gaza, which escalated after a terror attack in southern Israel by the militant group Hamas, which killed around 1,200 people. Along with Netanyahu, a warrant was also issued for former defence minister Yoav GallantNetanyahu has denied the charges against him and defined Israeli actions in the Palestinian territory as “acts of self-defence.”
海牙方面提出的指控包括：将饥饿作为战争手段、蓄意以平民为攻击目标、谋杀、迫害及其他不人道行为。国际刑事法院还指出，以色列阻挠人道主义援助和食物进入，并切断加沙的电力和供水，构成反人类罪。
The charges filed by the Hague include use of starvation as a method of warfare, intentional targeting of civilians, murder, persecution and other inhumane acts. The ICC also stated that Israel's blocking of humanitarian aid and food, and cutting electricity and water to Gaza, constituted crimes against humanity.
尽管美国和特朗普总统斡旋达成停火，以色列仍在加沙继续其行动。根据巴勒斯坦卫生部2026年10月发布的信息，自2023年10月8日起，巴勒斯坦领土上的死亡人数已达74,498人。
Depsite a truce brokered by the US and President Donald Trump, Israel continues its operations in Gaza. Since October 8, 2023, the death toll in the Palestinian territory stands at 74,498 people, based on information issued by the Palestinian health ministry in October 2026.
然而，由于袭击在三年后仍在持续，预计死亡人数将高于已记录的数字。除了国际刑事法院的逮捕令，内塔尼亚胡政府还面临国际法院的审判，该案由南非发起，指控以色列在加沙地带犯下种族灭绝罪。该案由南非于2023年提起，指控以色列军队在加沙地带的行动违反了1948年《防止及惩治灭绝种族罪公约》。除南非外，西班牙、巴西、巴基斯坦、爱尔兰、马来西亚、约旦、伊斯兰合作组织和阿拉伯联盟等多个国家也支持针对以色列的诉讼。
However, the toll is expected to be higher than what has been recorded as attacks continue even three years later. Along with the ICC arrest warrant, the Netanyahu government also faces a trial at the International Court of Justice, which was led by South Africa, accusing Israel of committing genocide in the Gaza Strip. The case, filed by South Africa in 2023, alleges that the Israeli military's actions in the Gaza Strip were in violation of the 1948 Genocide Convention. Along with South Africa, several other nations have also backed the case against Israel, including Spain, Brazil, Pakistan, Ireland, Malaysia, Jordan, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League.
过去两年里，国际法院已多次警告以色列防止违反《防止及惩治灭绝种族罪公约》，并呼吁该国允许人道主义援助进入饱受战火蹂躏的加沙地带。然而，在美国的支持下，以色列否认了所有针对其的指控，坚称所有行动均是在哈马斯恐怖袭击后采取的自卫措施。在国际法院针对该国的诉讼和国际刑事法院针对内塔尼亚胡的案件进行之际，这位以色列总理还面临国内抗议，抗议者包括被哈马斯绑架的以色列人质家属，以及对导致袭击发生的严重安全失误感到不满的民众。
Over the past two years, the ICJ has issued multiple warnings to Israel to prevent the violation of the Genocide Convention and called on the state to allow the movement of humanitarian aid into the war-torn strip. However, Israel, with backing from the United States, has denied all allegations against it, maintaining that all actions were taken as part of self-defence measures after the Hamas terror attack. Amid the ICJ case against the state and ICC cases against Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister also saw protests across the country from families of the hostages who were kidnapped by Hamas and discontent around the grave security failure, which led to the attack.
据第12频道7月发布的一项民调，内塔尼亚胡与其竞争对手、前以色列国防军参谋长加迪·艾森科特支持率不相上下。据第12频道报道，38%的公众希望内塔尼亚胡继续领导国家，但也有38%的人希望艾森科特接替现任总理。据第12频道10月的另一项民调，尽管获得特朗普背书，内塔尼亚胡现在落后于艾森科特。阿加姆实验室的另一项民调显示，内塔尼亚胡的极右翼联盟不大可能在选举中存续。
As per a poll published by Channel 12 in July, Netanyahu is neck-and-neck with his competitor, former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot. According to Channel 12, 38 per cent of the public would prefer to see Netanyahu continue leading the country, but 38 per cent would also want to see Eisenkot take over from the incumbent. According to another poll by Channel 12 in October, Netanyahu is now behind Eisenkot, despite an endorsement from Trump. Another poll by Agam Labs, Netanyahu's far-right coalition is unlikely to survive the vote.
内塔尼亚胡如果落选，会被逮捕吗？情况错综复杂在地区紧张局势升级和国内不满情绪高涨之际，内塔尼亚胡试图保住权力，另一个关键问题随之浮现——如果他在10月27日的投票中失利，针对他的案件将会怎样？
Can Netanyahu be arrested if he loses? It’s complicatedAs Netanyahu tries to hang on to his power amid rising regional tensions and dissatisfaction at the domestic front, another key question has been raised - What happens to the cases against Netanyahu if he loses the October 27 vote?
就国际刑事法院（ICC）的案件而言，该最高机构已对以色列总理发布了有效逮捕令。
As far as the ICC case is concerned, the top institution has issued an active warrant against the Israeli prime minister.
国际刑事法院没有自己的独立警察力量，依赖《罗马规约》的124个缔约国，该规约要求成员国执行逮捕令并将嫌疑人移交海牙。
The ICC does not have its own independent police force and relies on the 124 Rome Statute, which requires member states to execute warrants and transfer suspects to the Hague.
虽然以色列不是国际刑事法院成员国并拒绝接受其管辖权，但如果内塔尼亚胡无论胜败前往任何缔约国，这些国家在法律上有义务逮捕他。
While Israel is not a member of the ICC and rejects its jurisdiction, if Netanyahu, despite a win or a loss, travels to any of the ICC member nations, those nations are legally obligated to arrest him.
如果内塔尼亚胡失利，他也将失去外交豁免权。然而，非成员国或盟国（如美国）不太可能拘留他。
If Netanyahu loses, he also loses his diplomatic immunity. However, non-member or allied nations, such as the US, are unlikely to detain him.
与此同时，即使反对派赢得选举，未来的以色列政府将前总理移交国际法庭的可能性依然很小。
Meanwhile, even if the Opposition wins the elections, it remains unlikely that a future Israeli government would hand over a former prime minister to an international tribunal.
另一方面，就针对以色列总理的腐败审判而言，如果内塔尼亚胡被定罪，他可能入狱，这不取决于他是否获得另一个任期。然而，失去职位本身并不使内塔尼亚胡面临入狱风险。
On the other hand, when it comes to the corruption trial against the Israeli prime minister, Netanyahu can be jailed if he is convicted, and this will not depend on whether or not he secures another term. However, losing office does not itself make Netanyahu liable to imprisonment.
如果他在投票中失利，内塔尼亚胡将恢复公民身份，从而失去总理职位这一保护屏障。
If he loses the vote, Netanyahu returns to citizen status, thus removing the buffer of the prime minister's office.