路透社对经济学家的调查显示，印度本财年经济增长预计将从令人惊讶的强劲步伐放缓，并在预测期内徘徊在7%左右，因为较高的能源成本增加了近期通胀风险。美以主导的与伊朗的战争迄今对经济增长影响有限，但主要通过推高能源成本推升了通胀。印度储备银行已加息一次，预计到3月底前还将加息两次，将利率提至6.0%。但由于没有计划重大政策变化，亚洲第三大经济体预计将继续以稳健速度增长，大多数预测者一致认为这一速度不会给就业前景带来任何显著改善，尤其是对年轻人而言。
Economic growth in India is forecast to have slowed this fiscal year from a surprisingly strong pace and hover around 7% over the forecast horizon as higher energy costs add to near-term inflation risks, a Reuters poll of economists found. The US-Israeli-led war with Iran has so far had limited impact on economic growth, but it has pushed up inflation mainly through higher energy costs. The Reserve Bank of India has raised rates once and is expected to do so twice more, to 6.0%, by end-March. But with no planned major policy changes, Asia's third-largest economy is forecast to carry on growing steadily at a rate most forecasters agree will not bring about any significant improvements in job prospects, particularly for young people."7% growth is quite healthy, especially in this climate. But is that healthy for India?
“7%的增长相当健康，尤其是在当前环境下。但这对印度来说健康吗？我会说这可能只是平均水平，”Pantheon Macroeconomics首席新兴亚洲经济学家Miguel Chanco表示。
I would say it's probably just average," said Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Gross domestic product was forecast to grow 7.1% in the fiscal year ending March 2027, according to the median estimate in an October 19-26 Reuters poll, down from 7.7% in FY 2025-26.
根据10月19日至26日路透社调查的中位数估计，截至2027年3月的财年国内生产总值预计增长7.1%，低于2025-26财年的7.7%。随后增长预计将在2027-28财年放缓至7.0%。
Growth was then expected to ease to 7.0% in FY 2027-28. The forecast for this fiscal year was in line with RBI expectations as well as an earlier Reuters survey and broadly matched that of the International Monetary Fund. Economists have underestimated India's growth in 10 of the past 12 quarters despite forecasts generally clustering within a narrow range close to 7%.JOBS OUTLOOK DIMS AS OIL, AI WEIGHPrivate investment, a key driver of job creation, expanded by nearly 12% in the June quarter. Forecasters say sustaining such growth will become increasingly difficult if oil prices remain elevated.
本财年的预测与印度储备银行的预期以及早前的路透社调查一致，大体也符合国际货币基金组织的预测。
Crude oil futures are trading around $116 a barrel, about 60% above pre-war levels. India has also missed out on the surge in AI investment that has lifted growth in other Asian economies like South Korea."
尽管预测通常集中在接近7%的狭窄区间内，但经济学家在过去12个季度中有10个季度低估了印度的增长。就业前景因油价、AI而转暗私人投资是就业创造的关键驱动力，在6月季度扩张了近12%。预测者称，如果油价保持高位，维持这种增长将变得越来越困难。原油期货交易价格在每桶116美元左右，比战前水平高出约60%。
India's caught between its own ... domestic issues of low, insufficient private investment growth, but also there's this global backdrop of AI making it unnecessary to hire as many entry-level positions," said Chanco. "It's causing a lot of dissatisfaction among the youth in India, and rightly so."A student-led movement that began as online satire has spilled onto India's streets in recent months, reflecting growing concerns over education and jobs despite the country's rapid economic growth. Inflation is squeezing household budgets as savings dwindle. Price growth was forecast to average 6.1% this quarter and remain above the RBI's 4% medium-term target at least until end-2027. That outlook is slightly higher than the forecast in last month’s survey."
印度也错过了推动韩国等其他亚洲经济体增长的AI投资热潮。“印度陷入了自身的……陈科表示：“国内问题是私人投资增长低迷、不足，同时还有人工智能这一全球背景，使得企业不必再招聘那么多入门级岗位。这正在印度年轻人中引发大量不满，而且这种不满是合理的。”一场最初以网络讽刺形式出现的学生主导运动近几个月来已蔓延到印度的街头，反映出尽管该国经济增长迅速，人们对教育和就业的担忧却在日益加剧。随着储蓄不断减少，通货膨胀正在挤压家庭预算。本季度通胀率预计平均为6.1%，并且至少到2027年底都将高于印度储备银行4%的中期目标。这一预测略高于上月调查中的预测。法国兴业银行印度经济学家库纳尔·昆杜写道：“更强的成本转嫁以及逐步上升的服务业通胀，加大了高企的价格压力变得根深蒂固的风险。”经济学家表示，家庭面临未来福利支出被削减的风险，而福利支出长期以来一直有助于支撑需求，并保护数百万人免于贫困。2026-27年度预算预计将把食品、化肥和石油补贴削减4.5%。Yes Bank首席经济学家因德拉尼尔·潘表示：“不仅是中央政府，各邦政府实际上也在提供大量现金来保护消费，这基本上就是它们正在实施的所有计划，这立刻告诉我一切并不顺利。”
Stronger cost pass-through and gradually rising services inflation increase the risk that elevated price pressures become embedded," wrote Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale. Households are at risk from future cuts to welfare spending, which has long helped support demand and protect millions from poverty, economists say. The 2026-27 budget projected a 4.5% cut in food, fertiliser and petroleum subsidies." The fact not only the central government but state governments are also actually providing significant amounts of cash to protect consumption, which is basically all the schemes they are running, immediately tells me all is not well," said Indranil Pan, chief economist at Yes Bank.