特朗普总统的乌克兰政策正如温斯顿·丘吉尔当年评价俄罗斯时那句名言所说：“一个谜，包裹在神秘之中，又置于不可捉摸之内。”2025年，他在椭圆形办公室羞辱了乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基。他还对俄罗斯强人弗拉基米尔·普京予以红毯礼遇，终止了美国对乌克兰的直接经济和军事援助，并推出了一系列荒谬的和平计划，这些计划只会姑息俄罗斯的侵略。
President Trump’s Ukraine policy has been, as Winston Churchill famously said of Russia, “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”In 2025, he humiliated Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. He also gave Russian strongman Vladimir Putin the red-carpet treatment, ended direct American economic and military aid to Ukraine and pushed absurd peace plans that only appease Russian aggression.
这种向俄罗斯倾斜的做法毫无道理。猜测满天飞。特朗普是怕普京吗？普京手里是否掌握他的把柄？他是俄罗斯的代理人吗？
The tilt toward Russia makes no sense. Speculation runs wild. Is Trump is afraid of Putin? Does Putin have blackmail material on him? Is he a Russian asset?
我想起一句常被归于丘吉尔名下的话：“你们在战争与耻辱之间做选择，你们选择了耻辱，结果将两者皆得。”自从他上一次通过电话与普京通话以来，特朗普宣布豁免制裁，允许俄罗斯向全球市场供应柴油。他可能参与了切断乌克兰获取关键战场卫星系统的举动。他搁置了对俄罗斯的全面新制裁，呼吁罢免泽连斯基，并阻止美国制造的“爱国者”拦截导弹这一至关重要物资从美国和欧洲政府运往乌克兰。
I think of a line often attributed to Churchill: “You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.”In the days since he last spoke to Putin by telephone, Trump has announced a sanctions waiver for Russian diesel supplies to the global market. He may have been involved in throttling Ukraine’s access to vital battlefield satellite systems. He put sweeping new sanctions against Russian on hold, called for Zelensky’s ouster and blocked vital supplies to Ukraine of U.S.-made Patriot interceptor missiles both from the U.S. and European governments.
制裁豁免让俄罗斯得以在全球市场出售柴油，为普京对乌克兰的战争提供了额外资金。
The sanctions waiver lets Russia sell diesel on the global market, and gives Putin extra cash for his war on Ukraine.
但就全球柴油供应而言，限制因素依然是伊朗战争和霍尔木兹海峡。这项俄罗斯交易对国内燃油价格的影响将微乎其微，而对俄罗斯经济的提振作用却显著。
But as far as global diesel supplies go, the limiting factor remains the Iran War and the Strait of Hormuz. The Russian deal’s impact on domestic fuel prices will be minimal, and the upside impact on Russia’s economy significant.
特朗普在制裁即将生效前豁免了制裁，他称此举“符合美国的国家利益”。他没有解释原因，也没有说明这些利益是什么。制裁旨在挤压俄罗斯为对乌克兰战争筹集的资金。豁免制裁是送给普京的一份他不配得到的礼物。
Trump waived the sanctions, which he said was “in the national interests of the United States,” just before they would have become effective. He did not explain why or what those interests were. The sanctions were intended to squeeze Russia’s finances for its war against Ukraine. The waiver was a gift to Putin that he did not deserve.
弗吉尼亚州民主党众议员唐·拜尔毫不掩饰他的厌恶：“特朗普再次向普京投降，背叛了我们的乌克兰伙伴，也公然违背了国会旨在因俄罗斯非法侵略战争而惩罚俄罗斯的立法的明确意图。”令人费解的是，特朗普似乎兑现了他的威胁，限制乌克兰获取情报以及使用星链，包括该卫星服务的军用版本。乌克兰依赖与埃隆·马斯克的太空探索技术公司相关的两个卫星系统。一个是星链，负责通信、防御型无人机以及协调地面部队。另一个是星盾，用于进攻目的，由美国政府控制。
Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) made no bones about his disgust: “Trump’s latest surrender to Putin again betrays our Ukrainian partners and defies clear congressional intent of legislation designed to punish Russia for its illegal war of aggression.”Inexplicably, Trump appears to have made good on his threats to restrict Ukraine’s access to intelligence and its use of Starlink, including the satellite service’s military version. Ukraine relies on two satellite systems related to Elon Musk’s SpaceX. One is Starlink, which handles communications, defensive drones and coordinating ground forces. The other is Starshield, used for offensive purposes and controlled by the U.S. government.
尽管特朗普宣称他已促成“能源停火”，但10月14日，俄罗斯向乌克兰的能源和民用目标发射了39枚弹道导弹和120多架无人机。乌克兰没有收到美国的情报预警。乌克兰操作人员在没有星链的情况下，发现他们无法控制时速超过100英里的无人机。
Although Trump declared he had arranged an “energy ceasefire,” on Oct. 14, Russia launched 39 ballistic missiles and more than 120 drones against energy and civilian targets in Ukraine. Ukraine received no intelligence warning from the U.S. Ukrainian operators, without Starlink, found they could not control drones at speeds above 100 mph.
俄罗斯的这轮齐射是战争中最猛烈的攻击之一，造成至少六名乌克兰人死亡，至少60万人断电。显然有人向克里姆林宫透露了机会窗口。
Russia’s salvo was one of the largest attacks of the war, killing at least six Ukrainians and leaving at least 600,000 without power. Someone had obviously tipped off the Kremlin about the window of opportunity.
这一连串事件的味道，仿佛出自布雷特·哈特笔下：三个人打扑克，一个被枪杀，两个幸存者互相指责。马斯克一直批评泽连斯基对俄罗斯的战争。乍看之下，他似乎在乌克兰军事行动进行期间故意破坏这些行动，无视美国的国家安全政策。但马斯克把责任推给特朗普：“星盾系统由美国政府拥有和控制。对速度或使用量的任何限制都由美国军方决定，并最终由”总统决定，他写道。
The sequence of events had a flavor that could have come from the pen of Bret Harte, where three play poker: One is shot, and the two survivors blame each other. Musk has been critical of Zelensky’s war against Russia. It appeared at first blush that he deliberately sabotaged Ukrainian military operations while they were underway, in defiance of American national security policy. But Musk blamed Trump: “Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the US government. Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the U.S. military and ultimately” the president, he wrote.
特朗普表示，他和马斯克都没有导致限制措施：“据我所知，我甚至不认为它被减速了。”关于马斯克可能的角色，特朗普说：“据我所知，不是我，也不是埃隆。”但路透社此前报道称，限制乌克兰使用星盾的命令来自白宫内部。
Trump said that neither he nor Musk had caused the limitations: “In fact, I don’t even think it was slowed down, from what I understood.”About Musk’s possible role, Trump said, “it wasn’t me, and it wasn’t Elon, as I understand.”But Reuters had reported that the order to limit Starshield for Ukraine came from inside the White House.
知情人士透露，是马斯克向特朗普提出了在乌克兰减速系统的想法，特朗普同意了。一位消息人士说，马斯克“发推称自己清白，是美国政府干的”。那么，究竟是谁干的？该消息人士说：“事实是，他们都参与其中。”最终，美国官员将限制措施归咎于马斯克。
According to sources familiar with the discussions, it was Musk who had approached Trump with the idea of slowing down the systems in Ukraine, and Trump agreed. One source said Musk “tweeted out that he was innocent and that it was the U.S. administration that did it.”So, whodunit? The source said: “The reality is that they were both in it.”Ultimately, American officials blamed Musk for the restriction.
泽连斯基表示，对星盾的速度和使用限制是故意实施的。“这是一次预谋行动。”这位乌克兰领导人表示，这些限制始于10月13日深夜，一直持续到周六，当时他宣布运营已恢复正常。一组两党美国参议员已要求对这些中断事件展开调查。在乌克兰问题上，我们究竟站在哪一边？特朗普让我们感到困惑。
Zelensky said the speed and usage restrictions had been deliberately imposed on Starshield. “This is a planned operation.”The Ukrainian leader suggested that the restrictions, which began overnight on Oct. 13, were in place until Saturday, when he announced that operations were back to normal. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators has demanded an investigation into the disruptions. Whose side are we on in Ukraine? Trump has left us mystified.
詹姆斯·D·齐林是纽约南区地方法院的前联邦检察官，也是一位出版过法律分析文章的作家。
James D. Zirin is a former federal prosecutor in the Southern District of New York and a published legal analyst.