
俄罗斯原油出货量降至一个多月来的最低水平,尽管其关键波罗的海港口的运营已从早前的停摆中强劲复苏。
Russia shipped the least crude in more than a month, even as operations at its key Baltic port recovered strongly from an earlier halt.
彭汇编的油轮数据显示,截至10月25日的四周内,俄罗斯海运原油出口量微降至日均355万桶。较截至10月18日的统计周期减少日均3万桶,降至五周低位。这一下降出现之际,单周出口量却出现了反弹。
In the four weeks through Oct. 25, overseas crude flows edged lower to 3.55 million barrels a day, tanker data compiled by Bloomberg showed. That was down by 30,000 barrels a day from the period to Oct. 18, to the lowest in five weeks. The drop came despite a rebound in weekly flows.
上周,共有12艘油轮从圣彼得堡附近的普里莫尔斯克港起航。而前一周仅有4艘,该周出现了为期三天的进出港空窗期。过去类似的中断曾与维护作业有关。
A total of 12 tankers left the Primorsk terminal near St. Petersburg last week. That compared with just four the previous week, which saw a three-day gap in arrivals and departures. Similar interruptions in the past were linked to maintenance.
俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争正冲击全球燃料和粮食供应,叠加波斯湾冲突的影响,推高国际油价至全面入侵初期以来的最高水平,当时布伦特原油基准价曾短暂突破每桶120美元。
Russia’s war on Ukraine is hitting global supplies of fuel and food, compounding the impact of the conflict in the Persian Gulf and sending crude prices to the highest since the early days of the full-scale invasion, when the Brent benchmark briefly topped $120 a barrel.
近期基辅对俄罗斯炼厂的袭击出现间歇,使莫斯科得以提高加工率,这很可能分流了原本用于出口的原油。在截至10月25日的七天里,未有针对俄罗斯石油加工厂袭击的报道,这正值推动俄罗斯、乌克兰和美国三方会谈之际。
A recent lull in Kyiv’s attacks on Russian refineries has allowed Moscow to boost processing rates, likely diverting crude that would otherwise have been exported. There were no reported strikes on Russian oil processing plants in the seven days to Oct. 25, amid moves to initiate trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US.

如果针对炼厂的袭击暂停持续下去,随着先前受损工厂修复复产,未来几周俄罗斯可用于出口的原油量可能会下降。
If the halt to attacks on refineries continues, the amount of Russian crude available for export could fall in the coming weeks, as previously damaged plants are repaired and brought back into operation.
与此同时,由于运费高企且波斯湾产油国提供更廉价的替代选择,印度买家可能正在远离俄罗斯原油。这种转变发生在中东原油出口量恢复至战前水平附近之际。在美国中期选举和以色列大选之后,如果伊朗冲突升级,这些出口量能否维持仍有待观察。
At the same time, buyers in India may be turning away from Russian barrels amid sky-high shipping costs and cheaper alternatives from the Persian Gulf. The shift comes as crude flows from the Middle East return to near pre-war levels. Whether those flows can be maintained if the Iran conflict flares up after the US mid-terms and the Israeli election remains to be seen.
船舶追踪数据和行业报告显示,截至10月25日这一周,约有37艘油轮装载了2693万桶俄罗斯原油。与前一周31艘船装载的略作修订的2187万桶相比,运量有所增加。
In the week to Oct. 25, some 37 tankers loaded 26.93 million barrels of Russian crude, vessel-tracking data and industry reports show. The volume compared with a slightly revised 21.87 million barrels on 31 ships the previous week.
上周,装运量每天增加73万桶,日均达到385万桶,为一个月来的最高水平。
Shipments jumped by 730,000 barrels a day last week to average 3.85 million barrels a day, the highest in a month.
普里莫尔斯克的流量出现反弹,此前一周船舶运输中断数天,表明该港口或其供油管道的装载作业可能因维护而暂停。
Flows from Primorsk rebounded after a gap in ship movements of several days during the previous week that suggested that loading operations may have been suspended for maintenance at the port or the pipeline that supplies it.

每周装运量可能波动,受天气、维护工作、制裁、军事活动和出港时间等因素影响。
Weekly shipments can be volatile, affected by weather, maintenance work, sanctions, military activity and the timing of departures.
该周内,从新罗西斯克运出了一批哈萨克斯坦的Kebco等级原油。自9月初以来,莫斯科已将所有哈萨克斯坦原油通过黑海港口运出,从而为其在波罗的海的乌斯特卢加港腾出更多装运自身原油的能力,后者被认为更安全。
There was one shipment of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade from Novorossiysk during the week. Since the start of September, Moscow has diverted all shipments of Kazakh crude through the Black Sea port, freeing up more capacity for its own barrels at Ust-Luga on the Baltic, which is seen as safer.
俄罗斯原油在海上的数量上周反弹,受该国波罗的海港口装运量大幅增加所推动。
The amount of Russian crude on the water rebounded last week, driven by the jump in shipments from the country’s Baltic ports.
按四周平均计算,截至10月25日的28天内,莫斯科原油装运的总价值几乎持平,为每周26.1亿美元,接近前一周的三周低点。总流量小幅下降和俄罗斯关键乌拉尔原油价格下跌,被太平洋ESPO等级原油价格上涨所抵消。
On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s oil shipments was little changed at $2.61 billion a week in the 28 days to Oct. 25, close to the previous week’s three-week low. The small drop in total flows and lower prices for Russia’s key Urals crude were offset by higher prices for the Pacific ESPO grade.


按周计算,出口价值增加约4.3亿美元,达到战时高点27.6亿美元,乌拉尔原油价格下降被装运量大幅增加以及ESPO价值连续第八周上涨所抵消。
On a weekly basis, the value of exports jumped by about $430 million to a wartime high of $2.76 billion, with lower Urals prices more than offset by the jump in shipments and an eighth straight weekly increase in ESPO values.

中国和印度仍然是俄罗斯原油的最大买家,而且优势相当明显。但并非总能在一批货物航行很远之前就确定其最终目的地,这使得许多最近由油轮运输的货物显示的是中转目的地,如苏伊士、苏丹港或新加坡。在获得可信的最终目的地之前,这些货物被记录为“亚洲未知目的地”。如果船只的目的地仍显示为俄罗斯装货港,或直布罗陀等地,则被记录为“其他未知目的地”。
China and India remain the biggest buyers of Russian crude by a considerable margin. But it’s not always possible to assign a final destination to individual cargoes until well into their voyage, leaving many of the more recent shipments on tankers showing interim destinations, such as Suez, Port Sudan, or Singapore. These are recorded as “Unknown Asia” until a credible final destination is available. Ships still showing their destinations as their Russian loading ports, or places such as Gibraltar, are recorded as “Other Unknown.”
截至10月25日的28天里,追踪到的对俄罗斯亚洲客户的发货量(包括未显示最终目的地的发货量)小幅降至每日342万桶,低于截至10月18日修正后的每日345万桶。
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, edged lower to to 3.42 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Oct. 25, down from a revised 3.45 million in the period to Oct. 18.

对地中海地区俄罗斯剩余客户的发货量与截至10月18日修正后的数字相比没有变化。在有一艘驶向土耳其的油轮将目的地改为苏伊士运河后,该数字被向下修正为每日约13万桶。
Shipments to Moscow’s remaining customers in the Mediterranean region were unchanged from the revised figure for the period to Oct. 18. That figure was revised down to about 130,000 barrels a day after one tanker heading toward Turkey changed its destination to the Suez Canal.

这使得截至10月25日的四周内对土耳其的流量约为每日8万桶,与前期持平。
That took flows to Turkey to about 80,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Oct. 25, unchanged from the earlier period.
此前一波对埃及的发货潮曾使6月中旬的流量达到每日16万桶,但在最近一个时期已回落至每日约5万桶。
An earlier flurry of shipments to Egypt, which took flows to as much as 160,000 barrels a day in mid-June, has fallen back to about 50,000 barrels a day in the most recent period.
自8月以来,对叙利亚的流量已降至零。此前,这个地中海国家在与美国就解除剩余制裁进行的谈判中同意“大幅”减少俄罗斯石油进口。
Flows to Syria have fallen to zero since August after the Mediterranean nation agreed to “drastically” reduce Russian oil imports in negotiations with the US on lifting remaining sanctions.
一旦每日近180万桶原油的目的地明确,对该地区的发货量可能会被向上修正。从历史上看,显示中转目的地的船只上的大多数货物都交付到了印度或中国。
Shipments to the region may be revised higher once destinations for almost 1.8 million barrels a day of crude become clear. Historically, most cargoes on ships showing intermediate destinations have been delivered to India or China.
本文是追踪俄罗斯出口码头原油发货量及这些流量总值的每周系列报道的一部分。下一次更新将在11月3日(周二)。
This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

所有数据均不包括被认定为哈萨克斯坦 KEBCO 等级的货物。这些货物由 KazTransoil JSC 运输,经俄罗斯过境,通过新罗西斯克和乌斯特-卢加出口,不受欧盟制裁或价格上限限制。哈萨克斯坦原油与俄罗斯产原油混合,形成统一的出口流。自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来,哈萨克斯坦已对其货物进行重新品牌化,以将其与俄罗斯公司运输的货物区分开来。
All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
如果自动定位信号似乎被关闭或伪造——这种手段称为“欺骗定位”——以隐瞒两艘船只会合进行货物转运,彭博社将这种船对船转运归类为秘密转运。
Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.
船舶跟踪数据与港口代理报告以及其他信息提供商(包括 Kpler 和 Vortexa Ltd.)报告的流向和船舶动向、覆盖俄罗斯港口的卫星图像进行交叉核对。
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd. and satellite imagery covering Russian ports.
如果您在彭博终端阅读此报道,请点击此处获取一份俄罗斯向主要目的地输出的四周平均流量 PDF 文件链接。
If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.