人工智能交易因该领域信贷担忧上升而受到审视，但Trivariate Research创始人亚当·帕克依然看好。他在致客户的信中写道：“我们无法确定周期将持续多久，但大多数专家认为这是一个10年的周期，数据中心建设在某些情况下可能需要更长时间。即使这最终被证明是一个7到8年的投资周期，我们现在也才刚过一半，我们非常怀疑此时提前抛售相关证券是否明智。”
The artificial intelligence trade has been under scrutiny due to rising credit concerns in the space, but Trivariate Research founder Adam Parker is still bullish. "We can't be sure how long the cycle will last, but most experts think this is a 10-year cycle, with datacenter build outs likely taking longer than that in some cases. Even if this ends up being a 7-8 year investment cycle, we are only halfway into it now, and we highly doubt selling the exposed securities this far in advance is prudent," he wrote to clients.
帕克指出，虽然AI交易从2023年初开始认真启动，但该技术带来的生产力提升尚未完全反映在盈利中。“今年年初只有15%的公司在讨论这些问题，直到今天，美国市值前500大股票中讨论这些问题的仍不足50%。与成本相关的生产力提升在我们面前，而非身后。”他说。
Parker noted that, while the AI trade began in earnest in early 2023, increased productivity from the technology hasn't fully trickled into earnings yet. "Only 15% of companies were discussing any of these issues at the beginning of the year, and still less than 50% of the top 500 US equities are discussing any of them today. Cost-related productivity is IN FRONT of us, not behind us," he said.
近年来，AI相关股票推动牛市攀上新高。自2023年5月以来，标普500指数上涨84%，科技板块在同期飙升147%。半导体股票价格翻了四倍，VanEck半导体ETF（SMH）上涨335%——英伟达更是飙升647%。
AI-linked stocks have propelled the bull market to new heights in recent years. Since May 2023, the S & P 500 is up 84%, with the tech sector surging a whopping 147% in that time. Semiconductor stocks have quadrupled since then, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) up 335% — and Nvidia soaring 647%.
然而，2026年10月情况有所不同。尽管标普500指数本月微涨，但SMH下跌11%，标普500科技板块下跌4.8%，借贷担忧导致投资者减持AI股票。英伟达本月下跌逾5%。
October 2026 has been a different story, however. While the S & P 500 is up slightly this month, the SMH has tumbled 11% and the S & P 500 tech sector has fallen 4.8% as borrowing fears lead investors to pare exposure to AI names. Nvidia has fallen more than 5% this month.
帕克认为，AI交易的最佳表现尚在后头。“标普500指数的一个合理看涨理由是，由于尚未反映在数字中的劳动力生产力提升，盈利可能保持在趋势线之上。”他说。
Yet Parker thinks the best is yet to come from the AI trade. "A legitimate bull case for the S & P500 is that earnings can stay above trend because of productivity on labor that is still not yet in the numbers," he said.