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卢拉可能挑选谁担任巴西财政部长?Who could Brazil's Lula pick for finance minister?

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巴西利亚,10月26日——左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦出人意料地赢得连任后,巴西市场周一大幅抛售,这给这位资深领导人施加了压力,要求他挑选一位能够释放财政纪律信号并安抚市场的财政部长。

BRASILIA, Oct 26 - A sharp selloff in Brazilian markets on Monday after leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s surprise reelection is pressuring the veteran leader to pick a finance minister who can send a signal of fiscal discipline and reassure markets.

消息人士称,卢拉可能会慢慢做出决定。但三位不愿透露姓名的消息人士表示,已经浮现出两个关键人选:副总统杰拉尔多·阿尔克明,以及皮奥伊州连任州长拉斐尔·丰特莱斯——在首轮投票中落后于右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗后,丰特莱斯重振了卢拉一度低迷的竞选活动。以下是卢拉的选择概览:丰特莱斯是谁?

Sources say Lula is likely to take his time to make a decision. But three sources who spoke on condition of anonymity said two key names have emerged: Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Rafael Fonteles, the re-elected governor of Piauí state who revitalized Lula's flagging campaign after trailing in the first round to right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Here is a rundown of Lula’s choices: WHO IS FONTELES?

41岁的数学家丰特莱斯被视为一位恪守财政纪律的技术官僚,能够在卢拉政府与心存疑虑的投资者之间架起桥梁。

Mathematician Fonteles, 41, is seen as a fiscally disciplined technocrat who could bridge the gap between Lula's administration and wary investors.

他拥有数理经济学硕士学位,并于2015年至2022年担任皮奥伊州财政厅长。他还曾两度担任代表各州财政厅长的Comsefaz负责人。阿尔克明是谁?

He holds a master's degree in mathematical economics and served as Piaui's finance secretary from 2015 to 2022. He also completed two terms as head of Comsefaz, which represents state finance secretaries. WHO IS ALCKMIN?

73岁的阿尔克明来自巴西社会党,曾是总统的中右翼对手,在2006年总统选举中败给卢拉。他还曾两度担任圣保罗州州长,并担任过贸易和发展部长。

Alckmin, 73, comes from the Brazilian Socialist Party and was once the president's center-right rival who lost to Lula in the 2006 presidential election. He is also a former two-term governor of São Paulo and ex-trade and development minister.

路透社本月早些时候报道称,卢拉正在考虑让阿尔克明出任财政部长,以增强其财政公信力并争取中间派选民。哪些因素对丰特莱斯有利或不利?

Reuters reported earlier this month that Lula was weighing Alckmin as finance minister to bolster his fiscal credibility and win over centrist voters. WHAT IS WORKING FOR OR AGAINST FONTELES?

在卢拉首轮投票中落后于博索纳罗之后进行的一次调整中,丰特莱斯在卢拉的竞选中崭露头角。

Fonteles gained prominence in Lula’s campaign after a shakeup that followed Lula’s first-round finish behind Bolsonaro.

作为卢拉所属劳工党(PT)成员,他是卢拉的前教育部长、当选参议员卡米洛·桑塔纳的亲密盟友。两人在巴西东北部共同参与卢拉的竞选活动,总统在那里取得了压倒性领先优势。

A member of Lula's Workers' Party (PT), he is a close ally of Lula’s former education minister and senator-elect Camilo Santana. The two worked together on Lula’s campaign in Brazil’s Northeast, where the president secured a commanding lead.

在胜选演说中,卢拉感谢了丰泰莱斯在竞选中的作用,但指出这位州长仍在皮奥伊州有一项“使命要完成”,一些盟友将其解读为卢拉可能不愿这么快让他入阁的信号。阿尔克明有哪些优势和劣势?

In his victory speech, Lula thanked Fonteles for his role in the campaign, but noted that the governor still had a “mission to fulfill in Piauí,” which some allies read as a sign he may be reluctant to bring him into the cabinet so soon. WHAT IS WORKING FOR OR AGAINST ALCKMIN?

在胜选演说中,卢拉大加赞赏阿尔克明的忠诚,甚至在自己发言之前先把麦克风交给了他。一位消息人士称,卢拉想要一位他完全信任的财政部长。另一位消息人士指出,阿尔克明是卢拉“100%信任”的人。

In his victory speech, Lula lavished praise on Alckmin’s loyalty and even handed him the microphone before speaking himself. Lula wants a finance minister he trusts completely, one of the sources said. Alckmin is someone Lula trusts “100%,” another source noted.

“如今,党外极少有人能与卢拉拥有这种关系,”其中一位消息人士说。

"There are very few people outside the PT who have that kind of relationship with Lula today," one of the sources said.

然而,消息人士称,卢拉最终可能决定留任现任财政部长达里奥·杜里甘。

Lula, however, may ultimately decide to retain current Finance Minister Dario Durigan, said the sources.

据第四位消息人士透露,虽然杜里甘缺乏一些竞争对手的政治分量,但卢拉据称非常看重他,并视其为一名“高效的执行者”。

While Durigan lacks the political weight of some rivals, Lula is said to value him highly and view him as an "effective operator," according to a fourth source.

关键可能在于幕僚长人选 这三位消息人士表示,卢拉对财政部长的选择,与卢拉是否任命前财政部长费尔南多·阿达德为幕僚长,变得日益交织在一起。

IT COULD COME DOWN TO THE CHIEF OF STAFF The three sources said Lula’s choice of finance minister has become increasingly intertwined with whether Lula makes former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad his chief of staff.

阿达德是工人党成员,应卢拉之请离开财政部去竞选圣保罗州长——尽管民调指向大概率落败——以巩固总统在巴西人口最多州的基本盘。他败选了。

Haddad, a member of the PT, left the Finance Ministry earlier this year to run for governor of Sao Paulo at Lula’s request - despite polls pointing to a likely defeat - to bolster the president’s base in Brazil’s most populous state. He lost.

杜里甘和阿尔克明均来自工人党之外,被视为与阿达德关系密切,这也将有助于确保财政部与总统府保持一致。

Both Durigan and Alckmin, who are from outside the PT, are seen as having close ties to Haddad, which would also help ensure alignment between the Finance Ministry and the presidential palace.

两位消息人士还表示,卢拉明白,在当前市场环境下,仅靠工人党人物难以遏制巴西雷亚尔贬值或长期利率期货飙升的势头。如果阿达德出任幕僚长,这可能会增加杜里甘和阿尔克明出任财政部长的机会。

Two sources also said that Lula understands that, given current market conditions, a PT figure alone would struggle to curb the slide in the Brazilian real or the surge in long-dated interest rate futures. This could boost Durigan and Alckmin's chances of being finance minister if Haddad is chief of staff.

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