作者：Vinícius Andrade 和 Ye Xie随着投资者在路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦意外连任后纷纷撤离巴西，Rajiv Jain 正准备做他以前做过的事：在恐慌中买入。
By Vinícius Andrade and Ye Xie As investors flee Brazil following Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprise re-election, Rajiv Jain is preparing to do what he has done before: buy into the panic.
GQG Partners 联合创始人、已是国有石油生产商巴西国家石油公司最大私人股东的 Jain 表示，考虑到巴西公司估值依然具有吸引力，盈利强劲且股息收益率高，投资者对选举结果的反应过度了。
The co-founder of GQG Partners, already the largest private shareholder in state-owned oil producer Petrobras, said investors are overreacting to the election result given that Brazilian companies remain attractively valued, with strong earnings and high dividend yields.
“如果从长期角度来看，我们认为巴西是新兴市场中最好的股票市场之一，”管理约 1500 亿美元资产的 Jain 在接受采访时表示。“如果抛售变得更加严重，我们可能会成为买家。” 周一，卢拉意外获胜推翻了近几周的看涨押注，导致巴西市场暴跌。巴西雷亚尔遭遇逾二十年来最大单日跌幅，而巴西股指最多一度暴跌 17%，触发了自 2020 年以来的首次熔断机制。
“If you take a long-term view, we believe Brazil is one of the best equity markets” across emerging markets, said Jain, who manages about $150 billion, in an interview. “We could be a buyer if the selloff becomes more severe.”Brazilian markets cratered Monday after Lula’s unexpected victory upended bullish wagers in recent weeks. The real suffered its steepest drop in more than two decades, while the Ibovespa tumbled as much as 17%, triggering its first circuit breaker since 2020.
这场溃败暴露了投押注有多么集中在右翼候选人 Flávio Bolsonaro 身上，三周前他在首轮投票中意外领先，曾激起市场对收紧财政政策以遏制不断攀升的政府债务的希望。
The rout exposed just how heavily investors had bet on Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate whose surprise first-round lead three weeks earlier fueled hopes for tighter fiscal policy to curb mounting government debt.
这一押注正值 GQG 面临挑战之时。由于 Jain 早前对 AI 持看空立场导致业绩跑输大盘，该公司一直在应对大额资金外流。今年以来，其新兴市场基金回报率不足 2%，而其基准指数上涨了 14%。
The wager comes at a challenging time for GQG. The firm has been grappling with heavy outflows after Jain’s earlier bearish stance on AI contributed to underperformance. The emerging-market fund has returned less than 2% this year, compared with a 14% gain in its benchmark.
不过，Jain 希望巴西的动荡能重演他 2022 年发现的机会。那一年，随着其他投资者因担心卢拉重掌大权会给从燃油定价到分红等各方面带来更大的政治干预而抛售巴西国家石油公司，GQG 增持了该公司股份，成为其最大私人股东。
Jain, though, is hoping the turmoil in Brazil echoes an opportunity he spotted in 2022. That year, GQG boosted its investment in Petrobras to become its biggest private shareholder, as others dumped the company on concerns that Lula’s return to power would bring greater political interference in everything from fuel pricing to dividends.
这笔反向押注获得了回报。自那时起，以美元计价，包括股息在内，巴西石油公司的回报率已超过285%，跑赢了包括微软、亚马逊和Alphabet在内的一些高飞的美国科技巨头。
That contrarian bet paid off. Petrobras has returned more than 285%, including dividends, in dollar terms since then, outpacing even some high-flying US technology giants, including Microsoft, Amazon.com and Alphabet.
贾因指出，卢拉在2000年代初首次担任总统时，在全球大宗商品繁荣的推动下，巴西股市大涨，这证明政治担忧不一定会转化为糟糕的投资回报。
Jain pointed to Lula’s first stint as president in the early 2000s, when Brazilian equities rallied amid a global commodities boom, as evidence that political fears don’t necessarily translate into poor investment returns.
“人们总是存在这种恐惧，但制衡机制仍然相当不错，”贾因说。“依我们来看，现在抛售巴西将是一个错误。”在周一遭受重创后，当地市场正在企稳，周二早盘基准股指下跌约0.7%，货币上涨1.1%。
“People always have that fear, but the checks and balances are still reasonably good,” Jain said. “In our view, selling Brazil right now would be a mistake.”Local markets were stabilizing after Monday’s bruising losses, with the benchmark equity index down about 0.7% and the currency climbing 1.1% on Tuesday morning.
即使在最近几个月削减持仓、为购买台湾和韩国的半导体股票筹资（因他对AI转为看涨）之后，巴西仍然是贾因在新兴市场中最大的超配押注。截至9月底，巴西股票占其180亿美元的GQG Partners新兴市场股票基金的14%，低于3月的24%，但仍比基准权重高出近10个百分点。
Brazil remains Jain’s biggest overweight bet in emerging markets, even after he trimmed his holdings in recent months to fund purchases of semiconductor stocks in Taiwan and South Korea as he turned bullish on AI. At the end of September, Brazilian stocks accounted for 14% of his $18 billion GQG Partners Emerging Markets Equity Fund, down from 24% in March but still nearly 10 percentage points above the benchmark weighting.
遏制巴西的预算赤字对于降低两位数的借贷成本、振兴拉美最大经济体仍至关重要。虽然卢拉的胜利给这一前景蒙上了新的阴影，但贾因表示，在其政府领导下，仍有推行市场友好型改革的空间。
Curbing Brazil’s budget deficit remains crucial to bringing down double-digit borrowing costs and reviving Latin America’s largest economy. While Lula’s victory has cast fresh doubt over that prospect, Jain said there remains scope for market-friendly reforms under his administration.
贾因说，投资者往往会夸大政治波动对企业（如巴西石油公司）的影响，该公司“定价依然便宜”且提供高股息收益率。他也看好巴西的银行和公用事业股。
Jain said investors tend to exaggerate the implications of political swings on companies, such as Petrobras, which is “still cheaply priced” and offers a high dividend yield. He also favors Brazilian banks and utilities.
“巴西的政治永远不会像人们感觉的那么好，也永远不会像人们想的那么坏，”他说。“答案通常介于两者之间。”
“Politics in Brazil is never as good as people feel and never as bad as people think,” he said. “The answer is typically somewhere in between.”