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梅拉尼娅还是教皇:谁在奥列什基促成了俄乌停火?Melania or the pope: Who brokered Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in Oleshky?

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2026年10月6日,在乌克兰基辅,一场集会要求建立人道主义走廊,以便在俄罗斯袭击乌克兰之际从赫尔松地区奥列什基镇撤离乌克兰平民 [阿丽娜·斯穆特科/路透社]A rally demanding the establishment of a humanitarian corridor to evacuate Ukrainian civilians from the town of Oleshky in Kherson region, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, October 6, 2026 [Alina Smutko/Reuters]

乌克兰一项关键的局部停火协议有望帮助1000多名平民,却引发了一场关于谁斡旋达成该停火的意外争论。

A critical localised ceasefire in Ukraine that promises to help more than 1,000 civilians has set off an unlikely contest over who brokered the truce.

白宫坚称,美国第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普斡旋了俄罗斯与乌克兰在奥列什基的停火,此前数周来,该镇传出越来越令人担忧的报告,警告人道主义危机日益加剧。

The White House insists that United States’ First Lady Melania Trump mediated the ceasefire in Oleshky between Russia and Ukraine, after weeks of increasingly alarming reports from the town warning of a growing humanitarian crisis.

但梵蒂冈提供了自己的说法,暗示教皇通过分别与俄罗斯总统普京和乌克兰总统泽连斯基通话,帮助促成了这一战斗暂停。

But the Vatican has offered its own narrative, suggesting that the pope was responsible for helping the pause in fighting through phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

以下是我们对奥列什基停火的了解,以及为何关于促成停火原因的不同版本至关重要:俄罗斯在2022年2月入侵初期攻占了乌克兰南部赫尔松州的奥列什基镇,并自那时起一直控制该镇。

Here’s what we know about the Oleshky ceasefire, and why the diverging versions of what led to the truce matter: Russia took the southern Ukrainian town of Oleshky in the Kherson region in the early days of the invasion in February 2022 and has retained control over it since.

但该镇遭受了严重的战争破坏,后来又因附近的卡霍夫卡大坝于2023年被毁而遭遇洪水侵袭。

But the town has suffered from extensive war damage and was later hit by flooding after the destruction of the nearby Kakhovka Dam in 2023.

据居民和官员称,留在镇上的居民——美国估计为1700至2000人——报告称面临严重的食品、药品和其他物资短缺。

According to residents and officials, those who remain in the town, which the US estimates at 1,700-2,000 residents, have reported severe shortages of food, medicine, and other supplies.

随后,在10月23日,宣布了一项短暂停火。乌克兰和俄罗斯官员表示,奥列什基的战斗暂停将允许人道主义援助送达,并允许想要离开这个被俄罗斯占领的城镇的人员撤离。他们补充说,将建立人道主义走廊以便援助物资送达。

Then, on October 23, a brief ceasefire was announced. Ukrainian and Russian officials have said the pause in fighting over Oleshky will allow the delivery of humanitarian assistance and the evacuation of those who want to leave the Russian-occupied town. They’ve added that humanitarian corridors would be established to allow for aid deliveries.

双方均表示,这项计划于周日结束的停火,并非全面结束敌对行动。迄今为止,结束战争的多项外交努力均告失败。

Both sides have said this ceasefire, which is scheduled to end on Sunday, is not a comprehensive end to hostilities. Multiple diplomatic efforts to end the war have so far failed.

尽管如此,克里姆林宫周一表示,该停火可能为未来类似的局部停火树立先例。

Still, the Kremlin said on Monday that the truce might set a precedent for similar localised ceasefires in the future.

俄罗斯国防部在Telegram上宣布,已于周二莫斯科时间凌晨4点(格林威治时间凌晨1点)停止朝乌克兰城市赫尔松方向炮击,以准备在奥列什基的行动。

On Telegram, Russia’s Ministry of Defence announced that it had stopped shelling in the direction of Ukraine’s city of Kherson from 4am Moscow time (01:00 GMT) on Tuesday, to prepare for the effort in Oleshky.

“作为乌克兰谈判团队负责人,我确认乌克兰方面正在履行其承诺,”乌克兰议会人权专员德米特罗·卢比涅茨在Facebook帖文中确认了俄罗斯停火的时间点。

“As head of the Ukrainian negotiating team, I confirm that the Ukrainian side is honouring its commitments,” Dmytro Lubinets, the parliamentary commissioner for human rights, said in a Facebook post confirming Russia’s timing of its halt.

美国第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普在周五宣布停火时表示,该镇局势“严峻”,处于“灾难边缘”。

Announcing the ceasefire on Friday, US First Lady Melania Trump said the situation in the town was “dire”, and it was on the “brink of disaster”.

她在白宫发布的声明中说:“奥列什基居民电力有限,生活在布满地雷的道路中,并忍受着定期的军事袭击。显而易见,如果没有我的干预,将人道主义援助送入该市并撤离老年人将是不可能的。”

“The people of Oleshky have limited electricity, live amid mined roads, and endure regular military attacks. It was abundantly clear that without my intervention, the possibility to bring humanitarian aid into the city and to evacuate the elderly would be impossible,” she said in a statement issued by the White House.

声明补充称,梅拉尼娅及其代表曾与俄乌双方领导人密切合作,以确定停火条款。

It added that Melania and her representatives had worked closely with Russian and Ukrainian leadership to define the terms of the ceasefire.

梅拉尼娅说:“两国的非军事、平民领导人将共同前往奥列什基居民家中探访,并确定他们所需援助的程度。希望撤离的居民将获得协调一致的支持和交通,前往他们首选的目的地。我预计一些人会想去俄罗斯,一些人会想去乌克兰。”

“Non-military, civilian leaders from both countries will work together to visit Oleshky residents in their homes and determine the level of assistance they require. Residents who wish to evacuate will receive coordinated support and transportation to their preferred destination. I anticipate some will want to go to Russia, and some to Ukraine,” said Melania.

乌克兰人权专员德米特罗·卢比涅茨也公开感谢第一夫人及其团队帮助协调谈判。俄罗斯官员证实了该协议。

Ukrainian human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets also publicly thanked the first lady and her team for helping coordinate the talks. Russian officials confirmed the agreement.

在白宫宣布的第二天早上,梵蒂冈在其官方报纸《罗马观察报》上刊登了一篇头版文章。标题为:奥列什基的人道主义停战。

The morning after the White House announcement, the Vatican published a front-page article in its official newspaper, L’Osservatore Romano. The headline: Humanitarian truce for Oleshky.

文章强调,该停火是在教皇利奥与俄乌领导人通话后达成的,教皇敦促他们同意暂停战斗,以帮助拯救被困平民。

The article underscored that the ceasefire was secured after Pope Leo spoke to Russian and Ukrainian leaders, urging them to agree to the pause in fighting to help save trapped civilians.

教皇利奥10月16日通过电话与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京通话,表达了他“对奥列什基市严峻人道主义局势的深切关切”,并表示他已呼吁停火,以便提供食物和医疗援助。

Pope Leo spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin via phone call on October 16 and expressed his “deep concern about the grave humanitarian situation in the city of Oleshky”, adding that he had called for a ceasefire to allow for food and medical assistance.

教皇是在医院康复期间拨打该电话的,此前他刚接受手术切除肺部癌肿。

The pontiff made the phone call while he was in hospital recovering from surgery to remove a cancerous tumour in his lung.

三天后,即10月19日,教皇利奥还与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基通话,讨论了奥列什基的局势。

Three days later, on October 19, Pope Leo also spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about the situation in Oleshky.

教皇特使、马泰奥·祖皮枢机主教曾在9月下旬访问莫斯科期间,就奥列什基的状况向俄方施压。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与教皇利奥关系紧张。

The pope’s special envoy, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, had pressed Russian authorities on conditions in Oleshky during a visit to Moscow in late September. US President Donald Trump and Pope Leo have had a strained relationship.

教皇利奥是历史上首位美国籍教皇,他曾批评特朗普发动伊朗战争的决定,称其违反了天主教“正义战争”的道德原则。

Pope Leo, the first US pope in history, has criticised Trump’s decision to launch the Iran war, saying it violated Catholic moral principles of a “just war”.

4月,针对利奥的批评,特朗普称教皇“在打击犯罪上软弱,在核武器问题上软弱”,并声称如果不是他当总统,利奥根本当选不了教皇——他未提供任何证据,宣称自己的总统任期助推了利奥获得该职位。

In April, responding to Leo’s critiques, Trump said the pope was “weak on crime, weak on nuclear weapons”, and that he would not have been elected pope if Trump wasn’t president – claiming, without evidence, that his presidency had helped Leo into the position.

“利奥作为教皇应该振作起来,运用常识,别再迎合激进左派,专心做一位伟大的教皇,而不是政客。这严重损害了他本人,更重要的是,损害了天主教会!”特朗普当时在“真相社交”平台上写道。

“Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician. It’s hurting him very badly and, more importantly, it’s hurting the Catholic Church!”Trump wrote on Truth Social at the time.

在天主教徒中,特朗普的支持率很低。甚至拒绝提及教皇在奥列什基停火中所起的作用,不太可能帮到他。

Among Catholics, Trump’s popularity is low. Refusing to even mention the pope’s role in the Oleshky ceasefire is unlikely to help him.

定于下周举行的中期选举,往往反映在任总统的表现,选民将决定特朗普领导的共和党能否保持对国会的控制权。

The midterms, scheduled for next week, often reflect a sitting president’s performance as voters decide whether Trump’s Republicans can retain control of Congress.

皮尤研究中心在9月28日至10月4日期间进行的一项研究显示,特朗普在天主教徒中的支持率已从他2025年1月第二个任期开始时的47%降至2026年10月的仅30%。多达20%的美国成年人自称天主教徒。

A Pew Research Centre study conducted between September 28 and October 4 suggested that Trump’s approval rating among Catholics has fallen from 47 percent at the start of his second term in January 2025 to just 30 percent in October 2026. As many as 20 percent of US adults identify themselves as Catholic.

在白人天主教徒中,特朗普的支持率从59%降至39%;而在西班牙裔天主教徒中,他的支持率则从31%暴跌至18%。

Among white Catholics, Trump’s popularity has fallen from 59 to 39 percent, while among Hispanic Catholics it has crashed from 31 to 18 percent.

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