随着地区大国加大外交努力，力图防止美国-以色列对伊朗发动的这场已持续八个月的战争再次升级，德黑兰方面却几乎没有表现出退让其红线的迹象。
As regional powers step up diplomatic efforts to prevent another escalation in the eight-month United States-Israel war on Iran, Tehran is showing little sign of backing down from its red lines.
中国周二宣布，北京将很快向该地区相关国家派遣特使，以帮助避免新一轮升级。这一声明凸显出，为这场已扰乱全球能源市场并外溢至整个地区的冲突寻找和平解决方案正变得日益紧迫。
The announcement by China on Tuesday that Beijing will be sending an envoy to relevant countries in the region soon to help avoid another round of escalation highlights the growing urgency of finding a peaceful solution to a conflict that has disrupted global energy markets and spilled over across the region.
周一，沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦和土耳其——这三个于8月签署《麦加防务协议》的国家——的高级官员会见了伊朗高级官员，承诺将继续就地区“和平与安全”相关议题进行讨论。
On Monday, senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye– the three nations which signed the Mecca defence pact in August – met with high-ranking Iranian officials, promising to continue discussions related to “peace and security” in the region.
然而，德黑兰似乎决心在其要求上不让步，尤其是因为它对霍尔木兹海峡海上贸易的未来握有相当大的筹码——战前，全球五分之一的石油和液化天然气经由该海峡运输。
However, Tehran appears determined not to budge on its demands, particularly as it holds considerable leverage over the future of maritime trade in the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) were shipped before the war.
“伊朗的首要任务不仅仅是达成又一次停火，而是永久结束战争并建立威慑，使美国和以色列的军事打击循环不再不断重演，”《伊朗播客》编辑兼主持人内加尔·莫尔塔扎维对半岛电视台表示。
“Iran’s priority is not simply to secure another ceasefire, but to end the war permanently and establish deterrence so that the cycle of military attacks by the US and Israel does not keep repeating itself,” Negar Mortazavi, editor and host of The Iran Podcast, told Al Jazeera.
德黑兰继续坚持要求解除制裁、结束美国对其海湾港口的封锁，并保证美国不会再次发动袭击，以此作为帮助恢复霍尔木兹海峡正常通行的交换条件。美国则希望伊朗在最终和平协议谈判前作出更多让步——包括在其核计划问题上作出妥协。
Tehran continues to insist on sanctions relief, an end to the US naval blockade on its ports in the Gulf and guarantees that the US will not renew attacks, in exchange for helping to resume normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The US wants Iran to give up more before a final peace settlement is negotiated – including making concessions about its nuclear programme.
专家表示，伊朗目前的考量受到多个因素驱动，其中包括对华盛顿的深度不信任——自2025年6月以来，美国在举行谈判的同时已对伊朗发动了三次打击——认为持续的经济压力可能迫使美国做出更具吸引力的让步，以及本周和下周备受瞩目的以色列和美国大选。
Experts say Iran’s current calculations are being driven by several factors, including its deep distrust of Washington – which has launched strikes on Iran three times since June 2025 while conducting talks – the belief that continued economic pressure could force more attractive US concessions, and much-anticipated elections in Israel and the US this week and next.
缺乏信任 伊朗立场的核心在于相信，以往的外交努力未能提供足够的保护，以抵御美国和以色列重新发动的袭击。2月28日，就在阿曼举行和平谈判之际，美以发动了这场战争的首轮打击。去年6月，以色列对伊朗发动了为期12天的战争，美国也参与其中。
Lack of trust At the heart of Iran’s position is a belief that previous diplomatic efforts have failed to provide sufficient protection against renewed US and Israeli attacks. The US and Israel launched the first strikes of the war on February 28, just as peace talks were ongoing in Oman. Last year, Israel launched its 12-day war on Iran in June, which the US joined.
巴基斯坦和卡塔尔于今年6月帮助斡旋达成了一份谅解备忘录，旨在重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，结束美国对伊朗港口的封锁，并为伊朗核计划谈判的启动确立条件。
Pakistan and Qatar helped broker a memorandum of understanding in June this year aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the US blockade of Iranian ports and laying down the conditions for the start of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.
但该安排迅速瓦解，双方重启攻击，导致美国在7月对伊朗持续发动数周袭击，随后伊朗对美国在邻国海湾国家以及约旦的军事资产和能源基础设施实施了报复性打击。
But the arrangement quickly unravelled as both sides resumed attacks, leading to sustained US attacks on Iran for several weeks in July, followed by retaliatory strikes from Iran on US military assets and energy infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf countries, as well as in Jordan.
国际政策中心（CIP）高级非驻地研究员西纳·图西表示，该安排的失败使德黑兰的立场更加强硬。
Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy (CIP), said the failure of that arrangement had hardened Tehran’s position.
他对半岛电视台表示：“伊朗认为，以往的谈判和停火安排未能保护其免受重新发动的军事袭击，因此正在寻求更切实、更持久的担保。”
“Iran believes previous negotiations and ceasefire arrangements failed to protect it from renewed military attacks, and it is therefore seeking more tangible and durable guarantees,” he told Al Jazeera.
与此同时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对自己将在近期采取何种行动仍保持模糊态度。“我的问题是，我是跟他们达成协议，还是把他们彻底解决掉？”特朗普周日对记者说。他此前曾表示，对伊朗的袭击不会在11月3日美国中期选举之前进行。
US President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has remained ambiguous over what course of action he will take in the near future. “My question is, do I make a deal with them or do I finish them off?”Trump told reporters on Sunday. He had previously said attacks on Iran would not take place until after the US midterms on November 3.
伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书穆赫辛·礼萨伊上周表示，该国武装力量已做好准备，应对任何新的袭击，包括入侵德黑兰的邻国，以及打击美军行动所使用的基地，这是其在与美国的战争中新“进攻”战略的一部分。
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said last week that the country’s armed forces were prepared to respond to any new attacks including by invading Tehran’s neighbours and hitting bases used in US military operations as part of its new “offensive” strategy in its war with the US.
他还表示，只有在华盛顿采取具体措施重建信任后，伊朗才会重新开放霍尔木兹海峡并开始和平谈判，其中包括满足伊朗最新提出的一系列条件——暂停制裁、解冻伊朗资产、解除美国对伊朗港口的海上封锁，并作出具体保证不再发动袭击。
He also said Iran would only reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin peace talks once Washington took concrete steps to rebuild trust, including meeting Iran’s latest set of conditions – suspending sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, lifting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and giving concrete assurances that it will not begin strikes again.
美国中期选举、以色列大选迫在眉睫 下周举行的美国中期选举将改选众议院全部435个席位和参议院100个席位中的35个，这将决定哪个党派在特朗普总统任期最后两年控制美国国会。这场战争在美国国内已极不得人心，正成为日益激烈的国内争议议题。
US midterms, Israel elections loom The US midterms next week, when all 435 House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be up for grabs, will determine which party has control of the US Congress for the final two years of Trump’s presidency. The war, already deeply unpopular with Americans, is becoming an increasingly contentious domestic issue.
路透社/益普索本月早些时候的一项民调显示，仅有34%的美国人认可特朗普对这场冲突的处理——这是他在两个总统任期内的最低支持率。共和党在两院的多数优势已极其微弱——参议院为53比47（含两名与民主党一起投票的独立参议员），众议院为218比214。
A Reuters/Ipsos survey earlier this month found just 34 percent of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the conflict – his lowest rating during either of his presidential terms. Republican majorities in both houses of Congress are already wafer-thin – at 53-47 (including two independents who vote with Democrats) in the Senate and 218-214 in the House.
战争还推高了能源价格——尤其是柴油价格几乎翻倍，给农民和小企业带来沉重负担——加剧了主导竞选议程的通胀和负担能力担忧。
The war has also driven up energy prices – particularly diesel, which has nearly doubled in price, causing a major burden for farmers and small businesses – adding to concerns about inflation and affordability that are dominating the election campaign.
一些援引伊朗官员的报道称，德黑兰可能正在故意拖延谈判，以剥夺特朗普在选举前获得任何形式的政治胜利。
Some reports citing Iranian officials say Tehran may be deliberately prolonging negotiations to deny Trump any sort of political victory before the elections.
共和党的挫败可能进一步压缩特朗普的回旋余地，尤其是如果民主党赢得国会控制权并加大对政府作战行为的审查力度。
A Republican setback could further constrain Trump’s room for manoeuvre, particularly if Democrats gain congressional control and increase scrutiny of the administration’s conduct of the war.
分析人士莫尔塔扎维表示：“德黑兰想给华盛顿——包括未来的美国总统——一个教训：攻击伊朗要付出高昂代价。”
“Tehran wants to teach a lesson to Washington, including future American presidents, that attacking Iran comes with a high price,” analyst Mortazavi said.
“其威慑战略是多层次的，旨在施加远远超出战场的军事、经济和政治代价。”在美国中期选举之前，以色列将于周二举行选举，这为伊朗的盘算增添了另一个维度。总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的失败可能会使与美国联合攻击伊朗的行动复杂化，因为专家称，正是他主要推动了特朗普批准这场战争。
“Its deterrence strategy is multilayered, aimed at imposing military, economic and political costs that extend well beyond the battlefield.”Before the US midterms is Israel’s election on Tuesday, which introduces another dimension to Iran’s calculations. A defeat for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could complicate renewing joint attacks with the US on Iran, as experts say he was the main force behind Trump greenlighting the war.
尽管一些人认为，由前军事首脑加迪·艾森科特领导的反对派获胜可能有望缓解地区紧张局势，但内塔尼亚胡的下台未必意味着以色列对伊朗的立场会软化。
While some believe an opposition victory led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot could potentially ease regional tensions, Netanyahu’s removal would not necessarily translate into a softer Israeli position towards Iran.
艾森科特本人也是前军事首脑，他曾多次对伊朗的核计划和地区影响力表示担忧。
Eisenkot is himself a former military chief, and has repeatedly expressed concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme and regional influence.
尽管如此，莫尔塔扎维表示，虽然伊朗官员正密切关注这场战争对华盛顿和以色列双方的政治后果，但他们也认识到选举后局势重新升级的危险，“这使得持久的外交解决方案更加紧迫”。
Nevertheless, Mortazavi said, while Iranian officials are closely watching the political consequences of the war for both Washington and Israel, they recognise the danger of renewed escalation after the elections, “making a durable diplomatic settlement even more urgent”.
伊朗的霍尔木兹筹码 伊朗对通过霍尔木兹海峡航运的控制权仍是其最有力的谈判筹码之一。
Iran’s Hormuz leverage Iran’s control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains one of its strongest bargaining chips.
在2月28日战争爆发之前，这条水道承载着全球约五分之一的能源供应，这使德黑兰对全球石油市场拥有相当大的影响力。
The waterway carried about one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies before the war began on February 28, giving Tehran considerable leverage over global oil markets.
根据华盛顿近东政策研究所收集的数据，10月是霍尔木兹周边商业航运遭受袭击次数最多的月份。
October has recorded the highest number of attacks on commercial shipping around Hormuz, according to data collected by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
上周，在伊朗袭击油轮后，布伦特原油价格飙升至每桶117美元以上——相比之下，战前约为72美元——而通过该海峡的航运量仍远未恢复到战前水平。
Brent crude surged above $117 a barrel last week – compared with about $72 pre-war – following Iranian attacks on tankers, while shipping through the strait remains nowhere near pre-war levels.
IG集团首席市场分析师克里斯·博尚表示，他认为伊朗正在故意利用这种经济压力，将其作为与华盛顿更广泛耐力较量的一部分。
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, said he believes Iran is deliberately exploiting this economic pressure as part of a wider contest of endurance with Washington.
“他们知道自己正在与美国进行一场消耗战，看谁先撑不住，”博尚告诉半岛电视台。“不过就目前而言，他们乐于继续袭击航运以推高油价。”外交努力的不确定性最新的外交举措反映出地区大国对又一轮战斗后果的日益担忧。
“They know they are in an attritional race with the US to see who breaks first,” Beauchamp told Al Jazeera. “For now, however, they are happy to keep attacking shipping to push prices higher.”Uncertainty over diplomatic efforts The latest diplomatic initiative reflects a growing concern among regional powers about the consequences of another round of fighting.
沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦和土耳其周一与伊朗官员达成一致，将继续就地区和平与安全进行讨论，外界担心冲突可能再次升级。
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye agreed with Iranian officials on Monday to continue discussions about regional peace and security, amid fears that the conflict could escalate again.
此次德黑兰会谈举行之际，地区紧张局势加剧，此前也门与伊朗结盟的胡塞武装数周来对沙特阿拉伯发动袭击，该武装同时也在与效忠于也门国际公认、沙特支持的政府的部队交战。
The talks in Tehran come amid heightened regional tensions following weeks of attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, who are also engaged in a conflict with forces loyal to Yemen’s internationally recognised, Saudi-backed government.
巴基斯坦和土耳其与沙特阿拉伯保持着密切的战略关系，并根据这三个穆斯林占多数国家近期建立的麦加联合防务协议，承诺在军事上支持利雅得。
Pakistan and Turkiye maintain close strategic ties with Saudi Arabia and have committed to supporting Riyadh militarily under the recently established Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between the three Muslim-majority nations.
政治分析人士、华盛顿特区阿拉伯中心非常驻研究员拉米·库里表示，此次会议有多个目标，其中一些比其他更为紧迫。
Political analyst Rami Khouri, a nonresident fellow at the Arab Center in Washington DC, said the meeting had several objectives, some more immediate than others.
“最紧迫的目标：缓和局势，努力重返外交进程，实现永久停火，然后界定问题并通过更有力的调解加以解决，由这三个国家[沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦和土耳其]以及可能还有其他国家提供支持，”库里告诉半岛电视台。
“The most immediate goal: to de-escalate and to try to return to the diplomatic process, to have a permanent ceasefire, and then define the issues and address them with much stronger mediation, supported by these three countries [Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye] and maybe others,” Khouri told Al Jazeera.
他补充说，会谈可能标志着地区安全秩序开始转变，从由华盛顿主导转向中东国家及其他地区国家能够发挥更大影响力的秩序。
He added that talks could mark the beginning of a shift away from a regional security order dominated by Washington, towards one in which Middle East countries and other regional nations can exercise greater influence.
与此同时，危机国际组织的图西表示，地区大国日益认识到，尽管它们与德黑兰存在分歧，但自身安全无法与伊朗的安全分开。
Meanwhile, CIP’s Toossi said regional powers are increasingly recognising that their own security cannot be separated from that of Iran, despite their differences with Tehran.
他说：“在美国与伊朗更广泛的对抗持续之际，稳定也门将十分困难，正如在地区军事升级始终构成威胁的情况下，与伊朗达成持久解决方案同样困难。”
“It will be difficult to stabilise Yemen while the wider US-Iran confrontation continues, just as it will be difficult to reach a durable settlement with Iran while regional military escalation remains a constant threat,” he said.
然而，伊朗播客主持人莫尔塔扎维表示，最终最大的障碍仍是伊朗对华盛顿缺乏信任。
Ultimately, however, the biggest obstacle remains Iran’s lack of trust in Washington, Iran Podcast host Mortazavi said.
她说：“经历了两场战争之后，德黑兰对美国承诺深表怀疑，希望获得具体保证，确保任何协议不会仅仅成为下一次袭击前的又一次临时停顿。”
“After two wars, Tehran is deeply sceptical of American commitments and wants concrete guarantees that any agreement will not simply become another temporary pause before the next attack,” she said.
“伊朗愿意谈判，并已通过提出结束战争的方案展现了灵活性。但德黑兰认为它仍掌握着重要筹码，尤其是在霍尔木兹海峡，不会在军事或经济压力下放弃这一筹码。目标是永久结束战争，而不是又一次让根本冲突悬而未决的临时停火。”
“Iran is willing to negotiate and has already demonstrated flexibility by presenting a proposal to end the war. But Tehran believes it retains significant leverage, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, and will not surrender that leverage under military or economic pressure. The goal is a permanent end to the war, not another temporary ceasefire that leaves the underlying conflict unresolved.”