法国在债务市场上严重依赖外国投资者，引发担忧，认为这可能成为波动的又一驱动因素。
France’s heavy reliance on foreign investors in its debt market is raising concern that it could become another driver of volatility.
据央行备案显示，法国在主要欧洲国家中境外持有债务的比例最高之一，非居民持有约60%的债务，接近十年来的最高水平。美国和英国的可比数字约为30%。
The country has one of the highest levels of overseas ownership among major European nations, with non-residents holding about 60% of its debt, near the highest level in a decade, according to central bank filings. The comparable figure for the US and UK is roughly 30%.
国际清算银行的研究显示，外国投资者在建立一国债务头寸时可能会花时间，但在市场紧张时却可能仓促抛售这些债券。
While foreign investors take their time building up positions in a nation’s debt, they can jettison those bonds in haste when markets are stressed, research conducted by the Bank for International Settlements shows.
目前，在其他不面临法国所经历的那种金融和政治动荡的市场中，他们有大量高收益替代选择。
And right now there are plenty of high-yielding alternatives for them in markets elsewhere that aren’t grappling with the kind of financial and political ructions France is facing.
“法国对外国需求的依赖可能成为脆弱性的来源，”意大利联合信贷银行战略研究主管卢卡·卡扎杜拉尼表示。非居民持有者“进一步减持的空间仍然显著，应被视为风险因素，”他说。
“France’s reliance on foreign demand could become a source of vulnerability,” said Luca Cazzulani, UniCredit’s head of strategy research. The scope for non-resident holders to “further reduce their holdings remains significant and should be regarded as a risk factor,” he said.
经济合作与发展组织今年早些时候在一份全球债务报告中指出，外国投资者（包括对冲基金）的大量存在，可能会集中风险，并导致“去杠杆化和快速外流”，从而将“波动转化为更高的融资成本”。过去一个月，法国市场因对该国沉重债务和演变为暴力的生活成本抗议的担忧而动荡不安。十年期借贷成本徘徊在5%附近，与德国债务的收益率差距最近扩大至15年来最大。
In a global debt report earlier this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development noted that a heavy foreign-investor presence, including hedge funds, can concentrate risk and lead to “deleveraging and fast outflows” that translate “volatility into higher funding costs.”French markets have been rocked in the past month by concerns over the country’s mountain of debt and cost-of-living protests that turned violent. Ten-year borrowing costs are hovering near 5%, and the yield spread over German debt recently widened to the most in 15 years.
法国债券历来因其良好的流动性和相对稳定性，以及相对于德国国债（该地区最安全的资产）提供的额外收益率而受到全球投资者的青睐。
French bonds have historically appealed to global investors because of their good liquidity and relative stability, while also providing extra yield over German bunds, the region’s safest asset.
外国持有的法国债券规模远超其他主要发达国家的同等比例。截至6月底，非居民持有英国债券的比例约为34%；截至2025年底，美国约为31%。意大利在8月的比例接近37%，日本在3月仅为13%。
Foreign holdings of French debt far outstrip the equivalent share in other major developed nations. Non-residents accounted for around 34% of UK debt at the end of June and about 31% in the US at the end of 2025. In Italy they held a share of almost 37% in August and a mere 13% in Japan in March.
交易员根据传闻称，法国国内机构买家鲜少进入市场。法国保险公司和银行的债券持有量，在第二季度末分别占总量的9.2%和10.5%，远低于过去水平。
Traders say anecdotally that they see few domestic institutional buyers in France stepping into the market. Bond holdings at French insurance companies and banks accounted for 9.2% and 10.5% of the total, respectively, at the end of the second quarter, much lower than in the past.
太平洋投资管理公司（Pacific Investment Management Company LLC）负责欧洲利率的投资组合经理康斯坦丁·韦特（Konstantin Veit）表示，如果新发债券的需求开始显得不稳定，法国当局可能会鼓励国内银行购买。
According to Konstantin Veit, a portfolio manager overseeing European rates at Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, French authorities may encourage domestic banks to buy if demand for new issuance starts to look shaky.
法国债券抛售吸引澳大利亚养老金入场，其他机构却望而却步。“对法国来说，大问题是他们必须经常到市场上来，”韦特说。“如果某次拍卖出现问题，确实可能出现他们致电银行的情况。”国内家庭可以帮助填补政府财政缺口，但尽管法国的平均储蓄率远高于欧盟平均水平，该国仍缺乏强大的散户债券买家基础。相比之下，意大利政府近年来一直致力于重建其债券的散户持有量，因为家庭倾向于长期持有投资。希腊和英国展示了当外国投资者撤资时可能发生的情况。
French Bond Rout Draws Australia Pension Into Market Others Shun“The big issue for France is they have to come to the market regularly,” Veit said. “If there’s a problem at one of the auctions, there could indeed be a situation where they call up the banks.”Domestic households can help plug gaps in government finances, but France lacks a strong base of retail-bond buyers despite an average savings rate that’s well above the European Union average. By contrast, Italy’s government has made a push in recent years to rebuild retail holdings of its debt because households tend to stick with their investments for longer. Greece and the UK show what can happen when foreign investors take flight.
根据智库布鲁盖尔（Bruegel）汇编的数据，2007年，约74%的希腊债务由非居民持有，随着该国金融问题的程度变得明显，这一比例到2011年已跌至40%以下。
In 2007, about 74% of Greek debt was held by non-residents — a share that plunged below 40% by 2011 as the extent of the country’s financial problems became apparent, according to data compiled by the Bruegel think-tank.
2022年，在前英国首相莉兹·特拉斯（Liz Truss）提出未融资减税提案后的两个月内，外国投资者抛售了创纪录的290亿英镑（348亿美元）英国国债。
In 2022 in the UK, foreign investors sold a record £29 billion ($34.8 billion) of gilts in the two months that followed ex-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s unfunded tax cut proposals.
由于债券持有情况的数据发布存在滞后，很难追踪债券所有权，但分析人士正密切关注法国最大的外国债权人之一——日本，以观察投资者是否正在撤资。随着日本收益率接近历史高位，市场预期资金将被带回并在国内投资。
While it’s hard to track bond ownership because data is published with a lag, analysts are watching one of France’s largest foreign creditors — Japan — for signs investors are pulling money out. With Japanese yields near record highs there are expectations money will be brought back and invested at home.
住友三菱DS资产管理公司的国枝信司本月早些时候表示，其全球固定收益组旗下基金已抛售所持全部法国政府债券。
Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management’s Shinji Kunibe said earlier this month that funds in his global fixed-income group had sold their entire holdings of French government bonds.
“即使法国实现5%的赤字目标，其债务仍在上升，”英意银行经济学家里卡多·贝莱西亚表示。“其薄弱之处在于谁来为其融资。”
“Even if France hits its 5% deficit target, its debt keeps rising,” Riccardo Bellesia, an economist at Intesa Sanpaolo said. “Its weak point is who funds it.”