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印度银行创纪录现金盈余消退,因印度央行遏制卢比押注India’s Record Bank Cash Surplus Fades as RBI Curbs Rupee Bets

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印度银行的创纪录现金盈余正在迅速消退,因央行维持紧缩流动性以遏制做空货币的押注。

A record cash surplus at Indian banks is fading quickly as the central bank keeps liquidity tight to curb bets against the currency.

Pratigya Vajpayee 和 Siddhi Nayak 报道 根据彭博经济学指数,贷款机构的超额资金已从9月初的高点11万亿卢比(1160亿美元)缩减至10月26日的4620亿卢比。

By Pratigya Vajpayee and Siddhi Nayak Excess funds with lenders have shrunk from a high of 11 trillion rupees ($116 billion) in early September to 462 billion rupees as of Oct. 26, according to a Bloomberg Economics index.

本月初印度储备银行采取全面措施捍卫卢比(当时卢比逼近历史低位)以来,紧缩局势加剧。IDFC First Bank 和 Emkay Global Financial Services 的分析师预计紧缩将持续,称印度储备银行似乎不愿完全补充银行体系流动性。

The squeeze has intensified since the Reserve Bank of India earlier this month took sweeping measures to defend the rupee as it approached a record low. Analysts at IDFC First Bank and Emkay Global Financial Services expect the crunch to persist, saying the Reserve Bank of India appears reluctant to fully replenish banking system liquidity.

Emkay 首席经济学家 Madhavi Arora 表示:“紧缩似乎是有意为之。”她称,印度储备银行的行动旨在提高对冲卢比进一步走弱和做空货币的成本,因为更高的借贷成本使得交易员借入卢比买入美元的费用更加昂贵。

“The tightness seems intentional,” said Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay. The RBI’s actions appear designed to raise the cost of hedging against further rupee weakness and betting against the currency, she said, as higher borrowing costs make it more expensive for traders to borrow rupees and buy dollars.

央行仅提供了有限的缓解。迄今为止,其将流动性支持上限设定为1.5万亿卢比,在需求超过可用金额的日子里避免提供更多资金。

The central bank has only offered limited relief. It has so far capped liquidity support at 1.5 trillion rupees, refraining from offering more funds on days when demand has exceeded the amount available.

由此导致的紧缩已将隔夜拆借利率推向央行政策利率区间的上限附近。

The resulting tightness has pushed overnight borrowing rates close to the top end of the central bank’s policy range.

行长 Sanjay Malhotra 周五表示,货币政策有时可用于应对金融稳定风险。被问及利率是否可能成为央行捍卫货币工具箱的一部分时,他说这是利率制定委员会“当然会审议的”事项。现金紧缩也正蔓延至国内融资市场。新发三个月和六个月期存单利率上周上升约40-50个基点,升至七个月高位。更高的银行融资成本反过来可能使非银行贷款机构筹资更加昂贵。

Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Friday that monetary policy could sometimes be used to address financial-stability risks. Asked whether interest rates could form part of the central bank’s currency-defense toolkit, he said it was something the rate-setting committee “certainly deliberates on.”The cash crunch is also spreading through domestic funding markets. Rates on fresh three- and six-month certificates of deposit rose about 40-50 basis points last week to a seven-month high. Higher bank funding costs can, in turn, potentially make it more expensive for non-bank lenders to raise money.

“未来利率走向存在很大不确定性,但如果宏观形势维持现状且原油价格小幅上涨,投资者将要求其投资获得溢价,”非银行贷款机构Capri Global Capital执行董事Ajay Manglunia表示。“借贷成本曲线可能变得更陡峭。”

“There is a lot of uncertainty on where rates will go from here, but if the macro situation stays as is and crude oil prices inch higher, investors will want a premium on their investments,” said Ajay Manglunia, executive director at Capri Global Capital, a non-bank lender. “The borrowing cost curve can get steeper.”

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