一位被谋杀的总理、一波自杀式爆炸袭击、以及一场仅以不到一个百分点之差决出胜负的选举：这些因素塑造了以色列1996年的大选，让本雅明·内塔尼亚胡首次掌权。随着现任总理寻求连任，这让人回想起公众的焦虑和围绕和平的激烈辩论是如何为他的崛起铺平道路的。
A murdered prime minister, a wave of suicide bombings and an election decided by less than one percentage point: these shaped Israel’s 1996 contest which brought Benjamin Netanyahu to power for the first time. With the incumbent seeking reelection, it brings to mind how public anxiety and bitter debates over peace laid the groundwork for his rise.
1996年5月29日，时任反对党利库德集团领袖的内塔尼亚胡在以色列首次总理直选中击败了现任总理希蒙·佩雷斯。内塔尼亚胡获得50.4%的选票，佩雷斯获得49.5%，内塔尼亚胡以0.98%的优势获胜。这一结果出现在长达六个月的政治动荡之后。虽然前以色列总理伊扎克·拉宾遇刺震惊全国，一度增强了对工党的支持，但1996年初发生的一系列自杀式爆炸袭击将安全问题推向竞选前沿，削弱了佩雷斯的地位。
On May 29, 1996, Netanyahu, then leader of the opposition Likud party, defeated incumbent Prime Minister Shimon Peres in Israel’s first direct election for prime minister. Netanyahu secured 50.4% of the vote against Peres’s 49.5%, winning by 0.98%. The result came after six months of political upheaval. While former Israeli PM Yitzhak Rabin’s assassination had shaken the country and briefly strengthened support for the Labour Party, a series of suicide bombings in early 1996 put security at the forefront of the campaign and weakened Peres’s position.
决定以色列下届政府组阁的席位算术与关键步骤
The seat arithmetic and the steps that will decide who forms Israel’s next governmentAn assassination that shook IsraelOn November 4, 1995, Yitzhak Rabin attended a large peace rally in Tel Aviv.
震惊以色列的一次暗杀 1995年11月4日，伊扎克·拉宾出席了在特拉维夫举行的一场大型和平集会。该集会以“支持和平、反对暴力”为口号，旨在支持他为达成与巴勒斯坦人的协议所做的努力。
The rally, held under the message “Yes to Peace - No to Violence”, supported his efforts to reach an agreement with the Palestinians.
据《卫报》当时报道，当拉宾离开活动走向座驾时，一名据称反对和平进程的犹太极端分子伊加尔·阿米尔向他开枪射击三枪，其中两枪击中。拉宾随后在医院去世。
As Rabin left the event and walked towards his car, Yigal Amir, a Jewish extremist allegedly opposed to the peace process, fired three shots at him. Two of them hit him. Rabin later died at a hospital, The Guardian reported at the time.
拉宾主导了关键谈判，促成了《奥斯陆协议》的签署，以色列和巴勒斯坦解放组织（PLO）通过该协议互相承认，并就巴勒斯坦自治框架及后续谈判达成一致。1994年，拉宾、佩雷斯和巴解组织主席阿拉法特因推动和平努力而共同获得诺贝尔和平奖。暗杀事件使拉宾长期的政治伙伴兼外交部长佩雷斯接管了政府。
Rabin had led key negotiations that produced the Oslo Accords, through which Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) mutually recognised each other and agreed on a framework for Palestinian self-government and further negotiations. In 1994, Rabin, Peres and PLO chairman Yasser Arafat received the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts towards peace. The assassination left Peres, Rabin’s long-time political partner and foreign minister, to lead the government.
他成为总理并继续支持和平进程。这次暗杀也改变了下届大选前的政治氛围。时年四十多岁的内塔尼亚胡领导反对派对抗拉宾，并开展竞选活动反对《奥斯陆协议》。据《世界报》报道，一些工党支持者指责内塔尼亚胡和其他右翼政客在暗杀前帮助制造了针对拉宾的敌对氛围。以色列出口民调显示内塔尼亚胡领导的集团领先，反对派落后，但无明显多数席位1996年自杀式爆炸袭击拉宾遇刺身亡后的几个月里，佩雷斯和工党受益于一股公众同情浪潮。
He became prime minister and continued to support the peace process. The assassination also changed the political atmosphere ahead of the next election. Netanyahu, then in his forties, led the opposition against Rabin and campaigned against the Oslo Accords. Some Labour supporters accused Netanyahu and other right-wing politicians of helping create an atmosphere of hostility towards Rabin before the assassination, according to a report in Le Monde. Israel exit polls put Netanyahu-led bloc ahead as Opposition trails, but no clear majoritySuicide bombings in 1996In the months after Rabin’s death, Peres and the Labour Party benefited from a wave of public sympathy.
然而，这种支持在1996年初面临新的考验，当时一系列自杀式爆炸袭击造成平民伤亡，将安全问题推向了竞选活动的最前沿。
That support, though, faced a new test in early 1996, when a series of suicide bombings killed civilians and brought the issue of security to the forefront of the election campaign.
据犹太电讯社（JTA）报道，1996年2月25日，耶路撒冷和阿什凯隆发生自杀式爆炸袭击，造成25人死亡。这些袭击几乎立即改变了竞选局势。
On February 25, 1996, suicide bombings in Jerusalem and Ashkelon killed 25 people, according to the Jewish Telegraphic Agency (JTA). The attacks changed the campaign almost immediately.
犹太电讯社两天后发表的一篇新闻分析称，民意调查显示，爆炸袭击发生后，内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团支持率激增。袭击发生前，内塔尼亚胡一度大幅落后于佩雷斯，但差距在事后急剧缩小。据称袭击者是反对和平进程的巴勒斯坦武装组织。
In a news analysis published two days later, JTA reported that opinion polls showed a surge in support for Netanyahu’s Likud party after the bombings. Netanyahu had been trailing Peres by a wide margin before the attacks, but the gap narrowed sharply in the aftermath. The attacks were allegedly by Palestinian militant groups opposed to the peace process.
3月份的进一步袭击加深了公众担忧。《华盛顿邮报》报道称，在2月25日爆炸袭击前不久的一次民调中，佩雷斯以16个百分点领先内塔尼亚胡。袭击发生后，这一优势大幅缩水，内塔尼亚胡在一些民调中一度反超。
Further attacks in March deepened public concern. Peres led Netanyahu by 16 percentage points in a poll shortly before the February 25 bombings, a Washington Post report said. After the attacks, that lead fell sharply, and Netanyahu briefly moved ahead in some surveys.
随后，内塔尼亚胡将这些担忧作为其竞选活动的核心。他表示，以色列需要采取更强硬的反恐手段，并批评政府对和平进程的处理。他的竞选活动宣扬“安全的和平”理念。与此同时，佩雷斯寻求继续拉宾开启的谈判。
Netanyahu then made those concerns the crux of his campaign. He said that Israel needed a tougher approach to terrorism and criticised the government's handling of the peace process. His campaign promoted the idea of a “secure peace”.Peres, meanwhile, sought to continue the negotiations begun under Rabin.
他的政府表示，和平进程为稳定和地区解决提供了一条道路。然而，爆炸袭击使得佩雷斯更难说服选民相信该进程能保护他们免受袭击。
His government said that the peace process offered a path towards stability and a regional settlement. The bombings though made it harder for Peres to convince voters that the process could protect them from attacks.
以色列面临的选项：内塔尼亚胡-艾森科特协议、少数派政府或无法组建新政府两位候选人，两种以色列愿景1996年大选将两种竞争性的以色列未来路径直接摆上了台面。
The options before Israel: A Netanyahu-Eisenkot deal, a minority government or no new governmentTwo candidates, two visions for IsraelThe 1996 election brought two competing approaches to Israel’s future into direct competition.
佩雷斯代表了拉宾所倡导的主张：与巴勒斯坦人谈判、落实《奥斯陆协议》以及努力与阿拉伯邻国建立更牢固的关系。他表示，外交手段有助于保障以色列的未来。
Peres represented what Rabin preached: negotiations with the Palestinians, implementation of the Oslo Accords and efforts to build stronger relations with Arab neighbours. He said that diplomacy could help secure Israel’s future.
内塔尼亚胡对此提出挑战。他反对《奥斯陆进程》的关键部分，并声称向巴勒斯坦人做出让步可能危及以色列的安全。他的竞选活动吸引了希望对恐怖主义采取更强硬回应、并质疑和平协议是否奏效的选民。黎巴嫩行动增加了佩雷斯的困难竞选活动也与以色列对黎巴嫩的轰炸同步展开，该行动被称为“愤怒的葡萄行动”，于1996年4月发动，理由是真主党发动了袭击。
Netanyahu challenged this. He opposed key parts of the Oslo process and claimed that concessions to the Palestinians could put Israel’s security at risk. His campaign appealed to voters who wanted a more forceful response to terrorism and who questioned whether the peace agreements were working. Lebanon operation adds to Peres’s difficultiesThe campaign also unfolded in parallel with Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon, known as Operation Grapes of Wrath, launched in April 1996, citing attacks by Hezbollah.
以色列对卡纳联合国建筑群的袭击造成100多名寻求庇护的平民丧生，引发国际谴责。以色列飞行员驾驶固定翼飞机和直升机实施了600次空袭，炮兵部队向黎巴嫩领土发射了约25,000枚炮弹。据人权观察组织统计，黎巴嫩有154名平民丧生，另有351人受伤。
An Israeli strike on a United Nations compound at Qana killed more than 100 civilians who sought shelter there, drawing international condemnation. Israeli pilots carried out 600 air raids with fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, and artillery units fired some 25,000 shells into Lebanese territory. Some 154 civilians were killed in Lebanon, and another 351 injured, as per Human Rights Watch.
佩雷斯对该行动的处理造成了进一步的政治困难。华盛顿近东政策研究所在1996年5月31日发布的分析中指出，该行动让佩雷斯失去了阿拉伯选民的支持，却未能赢得足够多犹太摇摆选民的支持来弥补损失。
结果是一场佩雷斯因和平进程和政府维持安全的能力而同时受到批评的竞选活动。
Peres’s handling of the operation created further political difficulties. In its analysis published on May 31, 1996, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said the operation cost Peres support among Arab voters without winning enough undecided Jewish voters to compensate.
内塔尼亚胡成功将公众关注点集中在恐怖主义问题及其承诺采取的更强硬应对方式上。内塔尼亚胡以不到1%的优势获胜以色列于1996年5月29日举行大选。这是选民首次直接选举总理，该制度与议会选举一同推出。据华盛顿近东政策研究所数据，内塔尼亚胡获得50.4%的选票，佩雷斯获得49.5%。内塔尼亚胡获1,501,023票，佩雷斯获1,471,566票，差距为29,457票。
The result was a campaign in which Peres faced criticism over both the peace process and the government's ability to maintain security. Netanyahu was able to keep attention on terrorism and his promise of a tougher approach. Netanyahu wins by less than 1%Israel held its election on May 29, 1996. It was the first time voters directly elected the prime minister, in a system introduced alongside the parliamentary election. Netanyahu won 50.4% of the vote, while Peres received 49.5%, according to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
警告伊朗勿干扰以色列10月27日大选以色列2026年大选这是2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击后以色列的首次大选，也是内塔尼亚胡在加沙、叙利亚、黎巴嫩和伊朗发动的一系列持续战争之后的首次大选，这些战争已造成数十万人丧生、数千万人受伤，其中包括儿童。内塔尼亚胡政府面临关于安全、对2023年袭击的应对、后续战争的行事方式以及国家政治方向的质疑。
Netanyahu secured 1,501,023 votes against Peres’s 1,471,566 - a difference of 29,457 votes. warns Iran against attempts to disrupt Israel’s October 27 electionsIsrael elections 2026This is Israel’s first election after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and Netanyahu's series of continued wars in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and Iran that have killed lakhs and injured crores of people, including children. Netanyahu’s government faces questions over security, the handling of the 2023 attack, the conduct of the subsequent wars and the country’s political direction.
据路透社报道，内塔尼亚胡再次将自己定位为最能保护以色列的领导人。然而，反对派已联合起来对抗他，前军方首脑、雅夏尔党领袖加迪·艾森科特成为关键竞争对手。
Netanyahu is now again presenting himself as the leader best placed to protect Israel, Reuters reports. However, the opposition has united against him, with former military chief and Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot emerging as a key rival challenger.