摩根大通私人银行亚洲利率和外汇策略主管唐宇轩（Yuxuan Tang）在接受采访时表示，在经历最新一轮抛售之后，由于流动性依然薄弱且利率仍有上升空间，黄金仍面临下行风险。
Gold still faces downside risk after the latest sell-off as liquidity remains thin and interest rates have room to rise, Yuxuan Tang, head of rates and foreign-exchange strategy for Asia at JPMorgan Private Bank, said in an interview.
她表示：“当利率见顶时，黄金将找到一个坚实的底部。”该行预计美联储将在12月以及2027年第一季度再次加息，将10年期美国国债收益率从目前略高于5%的水平推高至年中5.25%至5.5%的峰值。
“Gold will find a solid bottom when rates peak,” she said. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to hike in December and again in the first quarter of 2027, pushing yields on 10-year Treasuries to a peak of 5.25% to 5.5% midyear, from the current level of just over 5%.
更高的收益率削弱了不支付利息的黄金的投资吸引力。但唐宇轩表示，鉴于黄金作为对冲经济和政策风险工具的持久吸引力，她认为一旦美联储结束紧缩政策，金价可能在明年晚些时候强劲反弹。
Stronger yields sap investment appetite for gold, which doesn’t pay interest. But Tang said she thinks bullion could rally strongly later next year once the Fed is done tightening, given its enduring appeal as a hedge against economic and policy hazards.
由于投资者为弥补其他地方的亏损而抛售黄金，该贵金属上周被卷入股市的更广泛抛售中，跌破了每盎司4000美元的关键关口。自8月下旬触及峰值以来，金价已下跌约13%，此后一直徘徊在该水平附近，因为高于预期的通胀数据增强了美联储将在年底前加息的预期。
The precious metal dipped below the critical mark of $4,000 an ounce last week, after getting caught in a broader sell-off in the stock market as investors sold gold to cover losses elsewhere. It’s stayed close to that level after losing around 13% from a peak in late August, as hotter-than-expected inflation prints bolstered expectations for the Fed to raise rates by year-end.
唐宇轩表示，市场仍然“相当脆弱”，每盎司4000美元下方几乎没有什么技术支撑。她指出，在发生美国和以色列大选等动荡事件时，黄金是其他资产的“稳定资金来源”，而随着预期转向更高且更晚出现的收益率峰值，现在很难判断底部。
The market remains “pretty fragile” with very little technical support below $4,000 an ounce, Tang said. Gold is a “stable funding source” for other assets during volatile events, such as elections in the US and Israel, and it’s hard to call a bottom now that expectations have shifted to a higher and later peak in yields, she said.
唐宇轩说，由于央行的购买，金价今年大体上一直保持在4000美元上方。随着年底临近，投资者进行大胆押注的意愿降低，较为清淡的交易状况可能会放大价格波动。“任何波动都可能是大波动，”她表示，“在利率高企时，流动性很薄弱。每个人都在争夺资金。”华尔街对该贵金属的近期前景存在分歧。东方汇理资产管理公司是预计金价会反弹的机构之一。但渣打银行认为，如果黄金无法守住每盎司3886美元的阻力位，技术支撑将会消失。
Bullion has largely held above $4,000 this year because of central bank buying, said Tang. Investors have been less inclined to make bold bets as the year draws to a close and lighter trading conditions could amplify price moves. “Any move could be a big move,” she said. “Liquidity is thin when rates are high. Everyone is competing for capital.”Wall Street is divided on the near-term outlook for the precious metal. Amundi SA is among those expecting a rebound. But Standard Chartered Plc sees technical support falling away if gold can’t hold above resistance of $3,886 an ounce.
唐宇轩表示，对于能够忍受短期波动的长期投资者来说，黄金仍然具有吸引力。该私人银行预测，到2027年年中，金价将上涨至每盎司4500美元，到年底将达到5000美元。
Gold is still attractive to long-term investors who can tolerate short-term volatility, Tang said. The private bank forecasts gains to $4,500 an ounce by mid-2027 and $5,000 by the end of the year.