纽约州约克镇 —— 民主党因预期今年将出现大规模“蓝色浪潮”而士气高涨。但纽约州的一个地区可能并非稳操胜券。
YORK — Democrats are riding high on the prospect of a massive blue wave this year. But one part of New York might not be such a sure bet.
在长岛，民主党人试图利用对唐纳德·特朗普总统的反弹情绪获利，却不得不面对选民对本地民主党的不满。共和党试图将选举焦点聚焦于州长凯西·霍楚以及纽约市的左倾转向。而当地政党机器正在动员起来捍卫共和党的地盘 —— 这可能有助于共和党抵御全国性的逆风。
On Long Island, Democrats hoping to capitalize on the backlash against President Donald Trump are confronting frustration with their own party closer to home. Republicans are trying to make the election about Gov. Kathy Hochul and New York City’s leftward turn. And the local party machines are mobilizing to defend GOP turf — potentially helping Republicans withstand the national headwinds.
全国范围内的民调对民主党有利 —— 甚至有利到他们正向俄克拉荷马、得克萨斯、爱荷华和密西西比等红州投入巨资。但长岛的共和党实力经受住了民主党在其他地方近期取得进展的考验：在去年的地方选举中，共和党守住了阵地，而民主党则在纽约州和全国其他地方庆祝胜利。
Polling looks good for Democrats across the country — so much so that they’re pouring cash into red states like Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa and Mississippi. But Republican strength on Long Island has survived recent Democratic advances elsewhere: In last year’s local elections, the party held its ground even as Democrats celebrated victories across New York and the country.
“几乎每个国会席位都可能两党各有胜算，”前共和党众议员彼得·金表示，他代表长岛近三十年。“我们对全国趋势的免疫力强得多。这里的地方政治非常活跃；选民知道本地竞选活动家是谁，本地候选人是谁。” 霍楚上一次出现在选票上是2022年，当时她的共和党对手李·泽尔丁在长岛获得了强劲票数，该地区是他在国会代表了近10年的选区。
“Almost every congressional seat could go either way,” said former GOP Rep. Peter King, who represented Long Island for nearly three decades. “We’re as immune as you can be to national trends. It’s very active local politics; people know who the local campaigners are, who the local candidates are.”When Hochul last appeared on the ballot in 2022, her Republican opponent Lee Zeldin racked up strong numbers on Long Island, an area he represented in Congress for almost 10 years.
那一年，共和党众议员候选人横扫拿骚县和萨福克县，其中包括后来因电信诈骗和身份盗窃罪入狱的乔治·桑托斯，以及安东尼·德埃斯波西托，他在击败劳拉·吉伦后，两年后的复仇战中败给了对方。
Republican House candidates swept Nassau and Suffolk that year, including George Santos, who was later sentenced to prison on wire fraud and identity theft charges, and Anthony D’Esposito, who defeated Laura Gillen before losing their rematch two years later.
霍夫斯特拉大学郊区政治专家拉里·利维指出，持续存在的治安担忧和强大的县级共和党组织是共和党今年的优势。该党的州长提名人、拿骚县县长布鲁斯·布莱克曼也拥有强大的本地基本盘。
Larry Levy, a suburban politics expert at Hofstra University, pointed to lingering crime concerns and strong county GOP organizations as advantages for Republicans this year. The party’s nominee for governor, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, also has a strong local base.
“所有这些零碎因素加在一起，可能会导致共和党爆冷获胜，”他说。“我们在纽约郊区处于一种奇怪的境地。”吉伦和民主党同僚、众议员汤姆·苏奥齐正在进行一场激烈的角逐，以守住涵盖纽约市郊区关键战场拿骚县的席位。在更东边，民主党正在发起一场艰难的攻势，试图翻转共和党众议员尼克·拉洛塔在萨福克县的选区。
“You've got all these little pieces that could add up to Republican upsets,” he said. “We're in a weird place here in the New York suburbs.”Gillen and fellow Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi are in a pitched fight to hold seats that cover battleground Nassau County in the New York City suburbs. Farther east, Democrats are marshaling an uphill push to flip Republican Rep. Nick LaLota’s district in Suffolk County.
而占据萨福克-拿骚跨县选区的共和党众议员安德鲁·加巴里诺，由于选民对现状的焦虑，正面临一场竞争更加激烈的竞选；特朗普在2024年曾以14个百分点的优势赢下该选区。
And Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino, who occupies a Suffolk-Nassau seat Trump won in 2024 by 14 points, is facing a more competitive race given voter agita with the status quo.
非党派选情评级机构认为，今年长岛四位现任议员均占据优势。尽管如此，在共和党团体在整个竞选期间对苏奥齐的选区投入巨资后，全国民主党的主要超级政治行动委员会在最后一周投入近100万美元用于电视广告，给他提供额外助力。
Nonpartisan election raters give all four Long Island incumbents the edge this year. Still, after Republican groups spent heavily on Suozzi’s seat throughout the campaign, national Democrats’ main super PAC put close to $1 million into TV advertising to give him an extra boost in the final week.
众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯和议长迈克·约翰逊均在竞选最后几天造访长岛，凸显这些席位对争夺众议院多数党地位的重要性。
Both House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Speaker Mike Johnson have visited Long Island in the campaign’s final days, underscoring the seats’ importance to the fight for the House majority.
霍楚尔承担了民主党2022年下层选票表现不佳的大部分责备。尽管民调显示霍楚尔在全州范围内领先两位数，但她的支持率平平，在郊区甚至处于倒挂状态。普遍存在的反现任情绪也可能打乱民主党大获全胜的局面，因为选民在权衡：他们对霍楚尔更不满，还是对特朗普更不满——许多下层选票上的共和党人正与特朗普保持一致。
Hochul weathered much of the blame for Democrats’ poor down-ballot performance in 2022. Although polls show Hochul leading by double digits statewide, she has a middling approval rating and is underwater in the suburbs. A widespread anti-incumbent sentiment could also scramble a wave-like outcome for Democrats, as voters weigh if they’re more frustrated with Hochul or Trump, whom many down-ballot Republicans are aligning themselves with.
挑战苏奥齐和吉伦的共和党候选人——前州众议员迈克·利佩特里和亨普斯特德税务局局长珍妮·德里斯科尔——正寄希望于布莱克曼能为他们带来顺风。他们把霍楚尔当作攻击的靶子——尽管这并没有阻止吉伦，他在本月初还与霍楚尔一起竞选。苏奥齐与州长关系并不特别亲密，因为他在2022年参加州长民主党初选挑战霍楚尔但未成功。在上周与利佩特里的辩论中，他说他支持霍楚尔，但“当我不同意她的政策时，我会发声”，包括地方分区政策。
The Republican challengers running against Suozzi and Gillen, former state Assemblymember Mike LiPetri and Hempstead Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll, are looking to Blakeman to provide tailwinds. They’ve used Hochul as a cudgel — though that hasn’t kept away Gillen, who campaigned with her earlier this month. Suozzi doesn’t have a particularly close relationship with the governor after unsuccessfully primarying her for governor in 2022. At his debate against LiPetri last week, he said he supports Hochul but “will speak up when I disagree with policies that she has,” including local zoning.
一些民主党人乐观地认为，霍楚尔这次在该地区的表现会更好，即使她面对的是布莱克曼。同时担任拿骚县民主党主席的州民主党主席杰伊·雅各布斯表示，霍楚尔将赢得拿骚县，并在郊区表现良好，因为拿骚县的民众“已经听腻了布莱克曼的吹嘘”。当地共和党也押注纽约市市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼会把选民从民主党赶走。
Some Democrats are optimistic Hochul will have a better performance in the area this time around, even as she faces off against Blakeman. State Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs, who also leads the Nassau Democrats, said Hochul will win Nassau County and do well in the suburbs because people in Nassau have “listened to Blakeman’s bluster long enough.”The local GOP is also betting New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani will drive voters away from Democrats.
虽然这位民主社会主义市长并没有完全成为共和党预期的那种“吓人怪物”，但长岛共和党人认为，他们靠近纽约市——且许多长岛居民正是为逃离纽约市才搬到这里——这使得马姆达尼在这里比在该州和全国其他地方更具攻击性。
While the democratic socialist mayor hasn’t emerged as quite the boogeyman Republicans were expecting, Long Island Republicans contend their proximity to New York City — and the concentration of Long Islanders who’ve moved there to get away from the city — makes him an especially salient target compared to other parts of the state and country.
共和党还看到犹太裔选民因反犹太主义上升和马姆达尼在以色列问题上的立场而感到不安，从中发现机会——尽管吉伦和苏奥齐都已确立了坚定亲以色列的形象。“人们把长岛视为常识的堡垒，”利佩特里告诉《政治报》。
Republicans also see an opening among Jewish voters alarmed by rising antisemitism and Mamdani’s positions on Israel — though both Gillen and Suozzi have established themselves as staunchly pro-Israel. “People look at Long Island as a bastion of common sense,” LiPetri told POLITICO.
他的竞选重点之一是猛烈抨击苏奥齐——和吉伦一样，苏奥齐也是温和派民主党人——指责民主党内部社会主义思潮抬头。这一攻击让长岛民主党人陷入被动。苏奥齐公开批评马姆达尼和社会主义。而吉伦本月初发布的一则广告将这座城市描述为“另一个星球”。民主党押注特朗普的影响力将更强。在拿骚县和萨福克县，注册民主党人都多于共和党人。
A prime focus of his campaign has been hammering Suozzi — who, like Gillen, is a moderate Democrat — on the rise of socialism within the Democratic Party. The attack line has put Long Island Democrats on their heels. Suozzi has been vocal in his critiques of both Mamdani and socialism. And Gillen released an ad earlier this month describing the city as “another planet.”Democrats are betting Trump’s impact will be even stronger. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in both Nassau and Suffolk counties.
虽然特朗普在2024年分别以4.2个百分点和10个百分点的优势赢得拿骚县和萨福克县，但自上次大选以来，他的支持率并未维持住。锡耶纳学院上个月的一项民调显示，52%的长岛受访者对特朗普持负面看法。
And while the president won Nassau by 4.2 points in 2024 and Suffolk by 10, his popularity hasn’t held since the last election. A Siena poll from last month found 52% of Long Island respondents viewed him unfavorably.
“我实际上在全国发起了一场运动，对抗民主党的极左派，”苏奥齐在上周的辩论中说。“独立的外部机构评定我是美国国会中最具两党合作精神的议员之一，我现在愿意把我的发言时间让给利佩特里先生，如果他能告诉我们：他在哪些问题上不同意总统？”吉伦也强调自己的两党合作资历——包括在共和党众议员迈克·劳勒的帮助下通过了她的首个法案，劳勒也是另一位处于激战区的现任议员——目的是为自己接种疫苗，抵御将她与党内极左派挂钩的攻击。
“I've actually started a movement in the country to fight against the far-left of the Democratic Party,” Suozzi said at last week’s debate. “I am rated by independent outside entities that say I'm one of the most bipartisan members of Congress in the United States of America, and I will cede my time to Mr. LiPetri right now if he will tell us: What does he disagree with the president on?”Gillen has emphasized her bipartisan credentials as well — including the passage of her first bill with the help of Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, another battleground incumbent — with the goal of inoculating herself against attacks tying her to the party’s far left.
“我北边的同事汤姆·苏奥齐，我们一直是同一类人、同一类领导人，都想试着寻找两党合作的途径来解决问题，”她告诉《政客》杂志，并补充说，作为少数党，法案“最有可能”进入议程进行表决的方式是有共和党联合提案人。她说，有了对方的支持，“法律更有可能长久有效，而不只是随着多数党易手而改变”。
“My colleague to the north, Tom Suozzi, we have both been the same kind of person, same kind of leaders, like we want to try to find bipartisan ways to get solutions done,” she told POLITICO, adding that the “most likely way” for a bill to get to the floor in the minority is having a Republican cosponsor. With buy-in from the other side, “the law is more likely to last and not just shift” when the majority flips, she said.
选民对总统的不满很大程度上源于居高不下的生活成本——民主党希望这一问题能在今年跨越党派界限、对己方有利，而共和党则试图将责任推给他们的纽约对手。汽油价格尤为痛点，因为伊朗持续的战争推高了柴油成本。但许多纽约共和党人依然支持特朗普的军事行动，理由是伊朗获取核武器的威胁。
Much of voters’ frustration with the president has to do with stubbornly high costs — an issue Democrats are hoping cuts across party lines in their favor this year and one Republicans have sought to blame on their New York rivals. Gas prices in particular have been a pain point, as the continued war in Iran has elevated diesel costs. But many Republicans in New York have stuck by Trump’s military action, pointing to the threat of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon.
为民主党候选人助选的组织“战场纽约”的外联总监惠特尼·罗尔斯顿表示，虽然长岛选民“历来更容易被电视上的恐吓广告或当地出现的任何问题所左右”——比如无现金保释制度，这是过去几个选举周期的主要议题——但她从未见过像在负担能力问题上这样团一致的情况。
Whitney Ralston, field director for Battleground New York, a group boosting Democratic candidates, said that while voters on Long Island have been “historically more caught up with whatever the scary ad on television is or whatever issue is popping locally” — like cashless bail, a major issue in past cycles — she’s never seen such unity on an issue as she has with affordability.
“他们反对的是唐纳德·特朗普创造的经济，以及他如何抛弃了支持他的共和党人，这种背叛在共和党内部根深蒂固，”众议院少数党党鞭凯瑟琳·克拉克说，她最近与吉伦一起竞选造势。
“What they are against is the economy that Donald Trump has created and how he has abandoned the Republicans who supported him, and that betrayal runs deep in the Republican Party,” said House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, who recently campaigned with Gillen.
克拉克补充说，长岛共和党人可能会从布莱克曼那里获得提振，“但他们无法克服这种关联和背叛。”利维说，拿骚县和萨福克县以强大的共和党组织著称，它们将相对次要的地方竞选（如镇长）视为“生死攸关”且是“其庇护组织的跳动心脏”。
Long Island Republicans, she added, may see a boost from Blakeman, “but they cannot overcome that connection and betrayal.”Nassau and Suffolk are known for their strong Republican organizations, which approach relatively minor local races, like town supervisor, as “existential” and the “beating heart of their patronage organization,” Levy said.
“他们希望地方共和党会如此充满激情地捍卫核心地盘，从而可能为选票上层的候选人带来更多选票，”他说。
“They’re hoping the local Republican party is going to be so energized to protect the heartland, it may pay off in an increased vote for people higher in the ballot,” he said.
这种动态萦绕在吉伦心头。在10月中旬与克拉克在长滩举行的拉票启动仪式上——当地共和党在那里获得了进展——吉伦警告支持者注意拿骚县共和党在下层竞选中的投入。
It’s a dynamic that’s on Gillen’s mind. At the mid-October canvass kickoff with Clark in Long Beach, where local Republicans have gained ground, Gillen warned her supporters about the Nassau County GOP’s investment in down-ballot races.
“那台机器运转有序，他们甚至比关心布鲁斯·布莱克曼更关心亨普斯特德镇，那是我的老本行，”她说。“他们将比为布鲁斯·布莱克曼更大力地为[现任亨普斯特德镇督察]约翰·费雷蒂动员每一位共和党选民。……所以我们需要全力以赴，确保我们的人知道不能待在家里。”长岛民主党基本盘中很大一部分是不常投票的选民。
“That machine is organized, and even more than caring about Bruce Blakeman, they care about the Town of Hempstead, my old job,” she said. “They’re going to turn out every Republican even more for [incumbent Hempstead Town Supervisor] John Ferretti than they are for Bruce Blakeman. … So we need to come back in full force to make sure our people know they cannot stay at home.”A significant share of the Democratic base on Long Island consists of infrequent voters.
一些民主党人对本党在长岛的组织架构提出担忧。上个月，长期担任萨福克县民主党主席的里奇·谢弗面临来自南奥尔德当地领袖凯瑟琳·凯西·奎格利的激烈领导权挑战。虽然他最终保住了职位，但这场斗争暴露了长岛民主党内部的紧张关系。
Some Democrats have raised concerns about their own party’s infrastructure on the island. Last month, longtime Suffolk County Democratic Chair Rich Schaffer faced a contentious challenge to his leadership from Kathryn Casey Quigley, a local leader in Southold. While he ended up retaining the post, the battle exposed the tensions gripping Long Island Democrats.
“如果我们早有准备、民主党组织有序，我认为我们本可以更好地利用这一时机，”奎格利说。“你提前建立了什么——或者没建立什么——都将决定你的表现。而我们没有进行足够层面的候选人招募和对城镇的投入，以真正产生影响。”全国共和党看到了机会——尽管长岛竞选受到的关注远少于哈德逊河谷的高调角逐，那里劳勒正试图抵御民主党人凯特·康利的挑战。
“If we had been ready and been an organized Democratic Party, I think we would've been able to capitalize on this moment much better,” Quigley said. “What you built in advance — or haven’t built — is all going to inform how you do. And we haven’t been doing the level of candidate recruitment and investing in the towns to really make a difference.”National Republicans see an opening — though the Long Island races have been getting far less attention than the high-profile competition in the Hudson Valley, where Lawler is trying to fend off a challenge from Democrat Cait Conley.
外部共和党团体在长岛投入了数百万美元用于广告——针对苏奥齐的投入多于吉伦，后者在2024年即使在共和党全国表现强劲的情况下仍以微弱优势翻转了该席位。如果两年前没有大量外部资金投入，利佩特里距离击败苏奥齐仅差四个百分点。
Outside GOP groups have placed millions of dollars on advertising on Long Island — more so against Suozzi than Gillen, who flipped her seat by a narrow margin in 2024 even as Republicans had strong performances nationally. Without significant outside spending two years ago, LiPetri came just four points shy of defeating Suozzi.
现金流在最后几周有所减弱，但李佩特里告诉《政客》杂志，他对自己的竞选资金储备感到满意。与此同时，苏奥齐表示，共和党团体将资源转移到别处，表明“民主党人现在的热情高得多”。民主党在长岛的投入资金较少，并嘲笑共和党的投资。本月早些时候，杰弗里斯在与记者交谈时称这是“徒劳的努力”，因为共和党把其他席位拱手让人，比如即将离任的众议员斯特凡尼克的席位，那是一个倾向共和党的上州选区。
That cash flow has tapered off in the final weeks, but LiPetri told POLITICO he feels good about his war chest. Suozzi, meanwhile, said GOP groups shifting their resources elsewhere demonstrates there’s “a lot more enthusiasm from Democrats right now.”Democrats haven’t spent as much money on Long Island and have scoffed at Republicans’ investment. Speaking with reporters earlier this month, Jeffries called it a “fruitless effort” while they leave other seats on the table, like outgoing Rep. Elise Stefanik’s, a red-leaning district upstate.
民主党享有资金优势，苏奥齐和吉伦的账面资金都比各自的挑战者多出数百万美元。（截至10月14日，德里斯科尔仅有3000美元可用。）即使是试图击败拉洛塔的民主党人克里斯·加兰特，上个季度的筹款额也超过了这位现任议员——尽管拉洛塔手头的现金仍多得多。
Democrats enjoy a cash advantage, with both Suozzi and Gillen having millions of dollars more in the bank than their challengers. (Driscoll had just $3,000 at her disposal as of Oct. 14.) Even Chris Gallant, the Democrat looking to unseat LaLota, outraised the incumbent last quarter — though LaLota still has much more cash on hand.
为加巴里诺竞选团队工作的长岛策略师迈克尔·达维德齐亚克预计今年胜负差距会更小，并表示，如果认为长岛最近的“红色浪潮”意味着这里是共和党的稳操胜券之地，那将是错误的。
Long Island strategist Michael Dawidziak, who’s working for the Garbarino campaign, is expecting closer margins this year and said people would be wrong to assume the recent red wave on Long Island means it’s a safe bet for Republicans.
“长岛并没有变得更倾向共和党，只是选民更倾向投给共和党了，”他说。“这不是永久性的意识形态转变。”他将最近的转变归因于“对奥尔巴尼的愤怒”，并表示解决这一问题是民主党必须面对的课题。他补充道：“无论你站在哪一边，我认为今年都不能掉以轻心。”
“Long Island hasn’t become more Republican, it’s just that they’re voting more Republican,” he said. “That’s not a permanent ideological switch.”He attributed the recent shift to “anger at Albany” and said addressing it is something Democrats have to deal with. “If you're on either side, I don't think you can take anything for granted this year,” he added.