炼油业务正经历历史性的混乱。但它也从未像现在这样有利可图。今年，中东和俄罗斯的袭击导致全球严重缺乏燃料生产能力，迫使其他地区的炼油厂全速运转，并得以抬高价格。美国墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油利润率今年增长了两倍多，9月份达到每桶72美元的历史新高。随着汽油、柴油和航空燃油价格飙升，欧洲和亚洲的炼油利润率也出现了类似涨幅。
The business of refining oil is experiencing historic disruption. It’s also never been more profitable. Attacks in the Middle East and Russia have left the world desperately short of fuel-making capacity this year, forcing refineries elsewhere to run full tilt and allowing them to command premium prices. Refining margins on the US Gulf Coast more than tripled this year to an all-time high of $72 a barrel in September. They posted similar gains in Europe and Asia as prices for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel surged.
对炼油行业来说，这算是一次复兴，此前许多人警告称，随着电动汽车、混合动力汽车和远程办公的兴起，该行业将不可避免地衰落。马拉松石油公司、瓦莱罗能源公司和菲利普斯66公司——都是十多年前从母公司剥离出来的——今年在标准普尔500指数中表现最好的20家公司之列，自1月份以来涨幅超过100%。
It’s a renaissance of sorts for the refining industry, which many warned was in inexorable decline with the rise of electric vehicles, hybrids and remote working. Marathon Petroleum Corp., Valero Energy Corp. and Phillips 66 — all spun out from their parent companies more than a decade ago — are among the top 20 performers in the S&P 500 Index this year, climbing more than 100% since January.
Neuberger Berman管理着约6000亿美元资产，该公司高级分析师杰夫·威尔表示，今年的地缘政治冲突“凸显了这些业务的重要性”。“我们在炼油产品制造方面投入不多，但它是经济的命脉。市场肯定已经意识到了这一点。”埃克森美孚控股公司最近一个季度的炼油业务收入预计将超过其庞大的油气生产业务——尽管在此期间原油价格上涨42%，平均每桶91美元。如果分析师的预测正确，这将是埃克森美孚自2017年以来炼油业务首次超过生产业务。壳牌公司第三季度的炼油利润率可能创下历史新高。
Geopolitical conflict this year “highlights how important these businesses truly are,” said Jeff Wyll, a senior analyst at Neuberger Berman, which manages about $600 billion in assets. “We haven’t invested a lot in the manufacturing of refined products, but it’s the lifeblood of the economy. The market has certainly woken up to that.”ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. is expected to make more money from refining in the most recent quarter than from its giant oil and natural gas production operations — despite crude climbing 42% and averaging $91 a barrel in the period. If analysts’ forecasts are correct, it will be the first time since 2017 that ExxonMobil’s refining has outperformed production. Shell Plc’s refining margins likely hit a record high in the third quarter.
今年，由于中东冲突、乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击以及北京和莫斯科实施的出口限制，全球多达10%的炼油能力陷入停滞。然而，供应短缺由来已久。
As much as 10% of global refining capacity has been sidelined this year amid conflicts in the Middle East, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and export restrictions imposed by Beijing and Moscow. The supply shortage, however, has been long in the making.
过去十年间，北美和欧洲有数十家炼油厂关闭，与此同时，一些公司对其他炼油厂进行改造，以生产生物燃料。美国自1977年以来就没有新建过炼油厂，仅去年一年就有两家大型炼油厂关闭。欧洲的新建项目也已枯竭，关闭的炼油厂不断累积。根据国际能源署的数据，自2015年以来，全球炼油产能投资下降了一半以上。
Dozens of refineries closed in North America and Europe over the past decade, while companies reconfigured others to produce biofuels. The US hasn’t built a new oil refinery since 1977, and two large ones there closed last year alone. New construction has dried up in Europe, too, as closures have piled up. Globally, investment in refining capacity has dropped by more than half since 2015, according to the International Energy Agency.
“你可以比需求侧更快地摆脱供应侧，”康宁公司大宗商品研究董事总经理马库斯·麦格雷戈表示。该公司管理着约1910亿美元的资产。“炼油商今天无疑正从这些动态中受益。”该行业的结构性转变发生在2010年代初，当时原油交易价格超过每桶100美元，几家大型石油公司剥离或缩减了炼油业务，以专注于其核心的石油和天然气开采业务。2011年，马拉松石油公司剥离其炼油部门，成立了马拉松石油公司；一年后，康菲石油公司分拆出菲利普斯66。墨菲石油和赫斯公司也拆分了各自的炼油部门。
“You can get rid of the supply side faster than you can the demand side,” said Marcus McGregor, managing director of commodities research at Conning, which manages about $191 billion in assets. “Refiners are definitely benefiting from those dynamics today.”A structural shift in the sector came in the early 2010s when crude was trading for more than $100 a barrel and several large oil companies spun off or reduced their refining operations to focus on their core oil- and gas-pumping businesses. Marathon Oil detached its refining division to form Marathon Petroleum in 2011, and ConocoPhillips spun out Phillips 66 a year later. Murphy Oil and Hess Corp. also dismantled their refining divisions.
过去二十年里，埃克森美孚、壳牌、英国石油和道达尔能源出售或改造了数十家炼油厂，以专注于其规模最大、技术最先进、利润率更高的炼油综合设施。壳牌和英国石油利用其保留的炼油业务，为其庞大的内部贸易业务提供优势，借助这些设施在单纯将原油转化为燃料之外提升利润。
ExxonMobil, Shell, BP Plc and TotalEnergies SE sold or converted dozens of refineries over the last two decades to focus on their largest, most sophisticated refinery complexes that operate with higher margins. Shell and BP have leveraged the refining operations they’ve retained to give their vast in-house trading businesses an edge, using the facilities to boost profits beyond simply turning crude into fuel.
尽管存在一些增长点——例如埃克森美孚扩建其位于得克萨斯州的博蒙特炼油厂，以及在中国和中东新建的设施——但这仍不足以跟上需求。根据达拉斯联邦储备银行的数据，2019年至2025年间，全球液体燃料消费量每日增加400万桶，但生产能力每日仅增加230万桶。
While there have been pockets of growth — such as ExxonMobil’s expansion of its Beaumont refinery in Texas and new facilities built in China and the Middle East — it hasn’t been enough to keep up with demand. Global liquid fuel consumption increased by 4 million barrels a day between 2019 and 2025, yet the capacity to manufacture them only rose by 2.3 million barrels a day, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
这使得全球炼油网络难以应对美伊冲突和俄乌冲突造成的破坏与扰乱。其结果是，美国柴油价格今年上涨了83%，汽油价格上涨了50%，推高了全球通胀，并给世界各国现任政府带来压力——包括美国总统唐纳德·特朗普，11月3日中期选举前的压力尤甚。
That’s left the global refining network ill-equipped for the destruction and disruption caused by the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. As a result, US diesel prices are up 83% this year and gasoline prices have increased 50%, elevating global inflation and piling pressure on incumbent governments around the world — including US President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections on Nov. 3.
“在我看来，这些公司和这些资产应保持相对于过去的溢价估值，直到我们投入足够资金来满足需求，”威尔说。“这可能要花费数年时间。”对消费者而言的痛苦，对坚持炼油业务的大型石油公司来说却是有利可图的。
“These companies and these assets should maintain, in my view, a premium valuation relative to the past until we invest enough to meet the demand,” Wyll said. “That could take years.”What’s painful for consumers is proving profitable for the big oil companies that stuck with refining.
分析师预计，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、壳牌、道达尔能源和英国石油在未来几天公布第三季度业绩时，合计利润将达到约500亿美元。根据彭博汇编的数据，这将是它们历史上第三高的季度利润，仅次于2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后大宗商品价格同样飙升时的水平。
Analysts expect ExxonMobil, Chevron Corp., Shell, TotalEnergies and BP to post combined earnings of about $50 billion when they report third-quarter results in the coming days. It would be their third-highest quarterly profit in history, surpassed only in 2022 when commodity prices also surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
这笔意外之财并非均匀分享。国际能源署称，创纪录的油轮运价和更高的原油价格挤压了欧洲和亚洲的利润率，尽管折扣原料将美国利润率推至新高。
The windfall isn’t evenly shared. Record oil tanker rates and higher crude prices have squeezed margins in Europe and Asia, even as discounted feedstocks pushed US margins to new highs, according to the International Energy Agency.
“如果你拥有一座墨西哥湾沿岸炼油厂，那你简直就是在印钞，”晨星分析师艾伦·古德说。他说，欧洲和亚洲的炼油商表现仍然不错，但原油和运输成本高企意味着它们实际获得的利润低于基准炼油利润率所显示的水平，第四季度燃料加工利润可能会有所下降。
“If you have a Gulf Coast refinery, you’re just printing money,” said Allen Good, an analyst at Morningstar. Refiners in Europe and Asia are still doing well, he said, but elevated crude and shipping costs mean they’re capturing less than benchmark refining margins suggest, and the fourth quarter may see some lower fuel-processing profits.
尽管如此，炼油紧张局面可能比冲突本身持续更久。汇丰分析师金·富斯蒂耶表示，即使霍尔木兹海峡明天重新开放，原油价格也可能像夏季停火期间那样迅速下跌，但重建失去的燃料生产能力将需要长得多的时间。“最难解决的一块是炼油，”她说。
Still, the refining crunch could outlast the conflict itself. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, crude prices would likely fall quickly, as they did during the ceasefire over the summer, but rebuilding lost fuel-making capacity would take far longer, said Kim Fustier, an analyst at HSBC. “The one piece that is much harder to solve is refining,” she said.
这并不意味着大型石油公司会急于新建炼油厂。富斯蒂耶表示，更可能的情况是，它们会“冻结任何与进一步出售、关闭或改造相关的事宜”。“这是阻力最小的路径。”麦格雷戈预计，高炼油利润率将持续到2027年中后期，随着通过霍尔木兹海峡的运输量增加，最终将回落至更正常的水平。因此，高管们不应被这些意外之财冲昏头脑。
That doesn’t mean the majors will rush to build new plants. More likely, they’ll “freeze anything to do with further disposals, closures or conversions,” Fustier said. “It’s the path of least resistance.”McGregor expects high refining margins to continue until mid-to-late 2027, eventually returning to more normal levels as shipping volumes increase through the Strait of Hormuz. As such, executives should not get too carried away with the windfall profits.
“最好的做法可能就是按兵不动，”他说。“我们不喜欢那些对价格飙升做出应激反应的团队，因为历史告诉我们，有时这些涨势非常短暂。”
“The best thing is probably just to keep the powder dry,” he said. “We don’t like teams that are reactionary to these price spikes because history teaches us that sometimes they’re very short-lived.”