“你甚至可以来海湖庄园……问题是，花 5000 美元，你最多只能买个汉堡，或许再加个小甜点。我甚至不确定你连这个都买不起。”——特朗普总统昨天在得克萨斯州的一次政治集会上开玩笑说，美国成年人负担不起在他位于佛罗里达州的庄园用餐。
“You can even come to Mar-a-Lago … The problem is that for $5,000, the most you’ll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert. I’m not even sure you could buy that.” — President Donald Trump joking at a political rally in Texas yesterday that U.S. adults could not afford to eat at his Florida estate One week.
一周。这就是詹姆斯·塔拉里科与现代得克萨斯州历史上最大政治冷门之一之间的距离。
That’s all that stands between James Talarico and one of the biggest political upsets in modern Texas history.
在最后冲刺阶段，这位政治健将在遍游孤星州之际，正紧守着对州长肯·帕克斯顿的微弱领先优势。MS NOW 的数据合作伙伴 FiftyPlusOne 的民调显示，塔拉里科以 49% 对 46.2% 领先帕克斯顿，福克斯新闻的民调则显示他以 51% 对 49% 领先。这些差距虽小，却指向一种非凡结果的可能性。自 1988 年以来，民主党在得克萨斯州从未赢得过联邦参议员选举。
As he barnstorms the Lone Star State in the final stretch, the political athlete is clinging to a narrow lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton MS NOW’s data polling partner FiftyPlusOne found Talarico at 49% to Paxton’s 46.2%, and a Fox News poll put him ahead, 51% to 49%. Those are small margins, but they point toward the possibility of a remarkable result. A Democrat hasn’t won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988.
让塔拉里科的处境更令人印象深刻的是他面对的对手。帕克斯顿背后有州长的机器助选，还有埃隆·马斯克那万亿身家的支票簿。这位世界首富已通过一个参议院共和党超级政治行动委员会，向这场竞选注资近 1.9 亿美元。这推动双方广告总支出突破 5 亿美元，使该竞选有望成为历史上最昂贵的参议院竞选。
What makes Talarico’s position even more impressive is what he’s up against. Paxton has’s machine behind him, along with Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar checkbook. The world’s richest man has already poured almost $190 million into the contest, routed through a Senate GOP super PAC. That’s pushed combined ad spending past $500 million, putting the race on pace to be the most expensive in Senate history.
但塔拉里科没有退缩。他抨击充斥电视荧屏的亿万富翁资金，并紧抓特朗普、马斯克以及得克萨斯人最关心的议题猛攻。正如我几个月前所说，这场竞选的头三大议题将是物价、物价、还是物价。塔拉里科在这一关键议题上领先帕克斯顿，并在无党派选民中以 60% 对 32% 碾压这位遭弹劾的州长。
But Talarico hasn’t flinched. He’s called out the billionaire money flooding the airwaves and hammered away at Trump, Musk, and the issues that matter most to Texans. As I said months ago, the top three issues in this campaign will be costs, costs, and costs. Talarico leads Paxton on that key issue and is crushing the impeached attorney general with independents, 60% to 32%.
《库克政治报告》和《萨巴托水晶球》均将得克萨斯州列为势均力敌的摇摆州。
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both call Texas a toss-up.
丹·拉瑟可能会说这场竞选“胶着得像蜱虫吸血一样紧”。得克萨斯州共和党依然保持巨大的结构性优势。但塔拉里科正转入竞选的最后弯道，带着势头、制胜信息和领先优势冲向终点。
Dan Rather might say the race is “tight as a tick.”And Texas Republicans maintain a big structural advantage. But Talarico is turning the campaign’s final corner and heading into the homestretch with momentum, a winning message, and a lead.
距离选举日不足一周，他的竞选活动已全面提速。如果以往经验能预示这场竞选的走向，塔拉里科将再次拼尽全力。而这一次，目标是赢得胜利。
With Election Day less than a week away, his campaign is kicking into overdrive. If the past is prologue in this race, expect Talarico to take it to the limit one more time. And this time, it’s for the win.
每日图表 来源：盖洛普2026年10月1日至19日对1200名美国成年人进行的民调。误差范围：±4个百分点他们怎么说 乔纳森·勒米尔谈特朗普竞选活动 “为唐纳德·特朗普第二任期工作的人都是真正的信徒。但总统一直处于一个泡沫之中，他的听众规模比过去小得多，他们依然对他的所有笑话发笑。这对那小群铁杆、忠诚的支持者管用，但在那些房间之外行不通——也无法帮助共和党人在下周获胜。”
CHARTS OF THE DAY Source: Gallup poll of 1,200 U.S. adults conducted Oct. 1-19, 2026. Margin of error: ±4 percentage points WHAT THEY SAID Jonathan Lemire on Trump campaigning“Those who work for Donald Trump in his second term are true believers. But the president’s been in a bubble, and his crowds, who keep laughing at all his jokes, are much smaller than they used to be. It’s working for that small group of die-hard, dedicated supporters, but it is not playing outside those rooms — and it’s not going to help Republicans next week.”
约翰·海勒曼谈司法部诉阿拉斯加州案 “这已经远远越过了通往威权政权领地的红线。司法部表示，如果共和党人获胜，他们不会质疑此案；但如果其他任何人获胜，结果就是无效的，不应予以认证。这真是前所未有、危险至极、令人震惊，三者合一。”
John Heilemann on DOJ vs. Alaska“This is so far over the bright line into authoritarian regime territory. The Department of Justice is saying that if the Republican wins, they won’t challenge this case. But if anybody else wins, the result is invalid and should not be certified. That is truly remarkable, dangerous, and astonishing, all rolled into one.”
萨姆·斯坦谈迈克·约翰逊的忠诚度考验 “迈克·约翰逊将在国会权力是否和平移交这一问题上发挥关键作用。如果特朗普认为选举结果有争议，当选议员不应就职，迈克·约翰逊会顺从吗？我很高兴这里还有多层保护机制，但也对事态竟发展到这一地步感到沮丧。”
Sam Stein on Mike Johnson’s loyalty test Mike Johnson is going to play a critical role in whether or not we have a peaceful transfer of congressional power. If Trump believes that the elections are contested and they shouldn’t be seated, will Mike Johnson acquiesce? I’m genuinely happy there are layers of protection here, but also dismayed that it’s even got to this point.”
乔·斯卡伯勒帖文：考虑到塔拉里科面临的困境，他的立场更令人印象深刻 MS NOW
The post Joe Scarborough: Talarico’s position even more impressive considering what he’s up against MS NOW