纽约，10月28日——美联储主席凯文·沃什周三表示，美联储决策者将于明年年初开始权衡一个研究资产负债表问题的工作组的建议。
NEW YORK, Oct 28 - Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Wednesday said US central bank policymakers will start to weigh the recommendations of a task force studying balance sheet issues sometime in the new year.
沃什在美联储最新为期两天的政策会议结束后的新闻发布会上表示，该小组成员正在研究央行如何利用其持有的债券、现金和其他资产来实现政策目标，“他们正在努力工作并比较各自最好的想法”。
Members of the panel looking at how the central bank uses its holdings of bonds, cash and other assets to achieve its policy goals "are working away and comparing their best thoughts," Warsh said in a press conference following the end of the Fed's latest two-day policy meeting.
他说：“我认为他们得出的结论、提出的建议，可能会在第一季度早些时候提交给（联邦公开市场委员会），尽管这可能会有变化。”
"I think the conclusions they come to, the recommendations they come to, will be fed into the (Federal Open Market Committee) probably early in the first quarter,” although that could change, he said.
在5月接任美国央行行长之前，沃什曾经常批评美联储如何利用购买债券来增强其更广泛的货币政策使命。在2008年全球金融危机和COVID-19大流行期间，当美联储基准利率处于近零水平时，美联储大量购买债券以安抚市场并提供刺激。
Before taking over as head of the US central bank in May, Warsh was a regular critic of how the Fed had used purchases of bonds to augment its broader monetary policy mission. The Fed bought large amounts of bonds during the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to calm markets and provide stimulus when its benchmark interest rate was at near-zero levels.
这些购买使美联储的持仓从全球金融危机前的1万亿美元以下增至2022年夏季的约9万亿美元峰值。尽管由于证券被动到期不再再投资，央行的总体持仓目前约为6.8万亿美元，但美联储发现，由于存在引发货币市场波动的风险，其持仓难以大幅进一步缩减。
The purchases took the Fed's holdings from under $1 trillion before the global financial crisis to a peak of about $9 trillion by the summer of 2022. Though the central bank's overall holdings are now around $6.8 trillion due to the passive runoff of securities, it has found that it cannot shrink holdings much more due to the risk of generating money market volatility.
沃什认为，大规模美联储债券持仓扭曲了市场，尽管央行内外其他人对此持不同看法。
Warsh believes large-scale Fed bond holdings distort markets, though others inside and outside the central bank dispute this view.
要让持仓大幅进一步下降面临的挑战在于，这需要对美联储用于管理短期利率的工具箱进行重大改变。这还需要监管变革，允许金融机构持有更低水平的应急现金，一些人认为这会使银行体系更具风险。
The challenge to getting the holdings down much further is that it requires big changes in the toolkit the Fed uses to manage short-term interest rates. It would also require regulatory changes permitting financial institutions to hold lower levels of emergency cash, which some contend would make the banking system riskier.
沃什承认不存在速效方案，因为美联储的持仓达到目前规模经历了多年时间。
Warsh has acknowledged there are no quick fixes because it took many years for the Fed's holdings to get to where they are.
关于资产负债表工作组的工作进展及其完成研究后将向央行提出何种建议，外界知之甚少。无论其提出何种建议，都需要由央行官员反复磋商，观察人士预计这一过程将需要一段时间才能落实。
Little is known about the balance sheet task force’s work and what it will say to the central bank when its study is complete. Whatever it does recommend will need to be hashed out by central bank officials, and observers expect the process will take some time to play out.
沃什谈到该工作组时表示：“如果我们决定对资产负债表做出调整，那将是在认真考虑其提案和建议之后。我认为这不太可能对当前的政策制定产生任何实质性影响，但这是一个重要议题，我期待在外部工作组的协助下推进此事。”
"If we decide to make changes in the balance sheet, it'll be after a serious consideration of their proposals and their recommendations,” Warsh said of the task force. “I think it is unlikely to have any material effect" on policymaking right now, but it's an important issue and "I look forward to doing it with the help of the outside task force."