在财报发布前夕，做空者正在减少对比亚迪股份有限公司的押注，这家中国电动汽车巨头有望在海外销售加速和国内市场复苏的推动下实现利润反弹。
Short sellers are paring back bets against BYD Co. ahead of earnings, with the Chinese electric vehicle giant poised to post a rebound in profit helped by accelerating overseas sales and a domestic market recovery.
据 S3 Partners 数据，比亚迪在香港上市股份的空头头寸占自由流通股的比例已降至七个月低点 6.3%，低于 6 月的近 8%。中国削减出口退税、欧盟对混合动力汽车设定进口上限后，这种回补加速，缓解了笼罩该行业的一些政策不确定性。即便如此，比亚迪股价有望连续第三个月下跌，将今年的跌幅扩大至约 26%。
Short interest as a percentage of free float for the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares has dropped to a seven-month low of 6.3%, down from nearly 8% in June, according to data from S3 Partners. The pullback accelerated after China cut export tax rebates and the European Union imposed an import cap on hybrid cars, easing some policy uncertainty clouding the sector. Even so, BYD shares are on track for a third straight monthly decline, extending this year’s slump to around 26%.
根据一致预期估算，这家中国电动汽车龙头可能在周四公布的 9 月季度净利润为 121 亿元人民币（约 18 亿美元），较去年同期低基数增长近 55%。彭博情报数据显示，若不计入比亚迪电子国际有限公司的贡献，其单车利润可能升至约 1230 美元，较 6 月季度增长 14%。
The Chinese EV leader may report net income of 12.1 billion yuan ($1.8 billion) for the September quarter on Thursday, up nearly 55% from a low base last year, based on consensus estimates. Its unit profit per car, excluding contributions from BYD Electronic International Co., likely rose to around $1,230, up 14% from the June quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
不过，在国内需求停滞、地缘政治逆风加剧和成本通胀的背景下，比亚迪要重振投资者对其长期前景的信心仍面临高门槛。彭博汇编的数据显示，分析师在过去几个月持续下调 2027 年利润预期。
Still, the company faces a high bar to revive investor confidence over its long-term outlook amid stagnant domestic demand, rising geopolitical headwinds and cost inflation. Analysts have continued to trim 2027 profit estimates over the past few months, Bloomberg-compiled data shows.
Financiere de L Echiquier 投资组合经理 Kevin Net 表示：“空头头寸下降‘并不一定意味着情绪会扭转、股价会反弹’。”他补充说，投资者关注的是海外增长迹象以及中国市场的利润率保持情况，比亚迪在国内面临持续的降价压力。
Declining short interest “doesn’t necessarily mean that the sentiment will turn around and the share price will rebound,” said Kevin Net, portfolio manager at Financiere de L Echiquier. Investors are focused on signs of overseas growth and margin preservation in China, where BYD faces persistent discounting pressure, he added.