在一场将决定国会控制权的选举前的最后几天，特朗普总统的收官论述——情绪高昂、东拉西扯、一如既往地脱稿——有时与共和党最需要的那些选民的经济焦虑正面相撞。随着伊朗战争推高美国人的汽油价格，特朗普却向支持者夸耀这场冲突正让国家变得富有。在佐治亚州的一场集会上，他说助手们曾劝他不要吹嘘美国从这场战争中赚取的数十亿美元石油收入，因为美国人正因此承担“略高一些”的成本。
In the final days before an election that will decide control of Congress, President Trump's closing argument — buoyant, digressive and characteristically off-script — is at times running headlong into the economic anxieties of the voters Republicans most need. With a war in Iran driving up gas prices for Americans, Trump is boasting to supporters that the conflict is making the country rich. At a rally in Georgia, he said his aides had urged him not to brag about the billions of dollars the United States was earning on oil from the war, since Americans are "paying a little higher" in costs because of it. But he did it anyway.
但他还是照说不误。“我说，我才不在乎呢，”特朗普说，“我们正在赚一笔惊人的财富。我们的国家每时每刻都在变得越来越强大。而那些油价会降下来的。”这一幕凸显了特朗普向选民所作最后诉求的核心赌注。民调显示绝大多数美国人对经济不满，而总统描绘的却是一幅许多选民并不认可的国家繁荣图景，还配上玩笑和跑题之语，看上去像是在轻描淡写他们的困境。
“I said, I don’t give a damn," Trump said. "We are making a freaking fortune. Our country is getting stronger and stronger all the time. And those pump prices are going to come down.”The moment underscores the gamble at the core of Trump's final pitch to voters. With polls showing an overwhelming majority of Americans unhappy with the economy, the president is offering a portrait of national prosperity that many voters do not recognize, and pairing it with jokes and digressions that can seem to make light of their struggles.
周二的选举结果将是最清晰的检验：这一信息是否仍能打动他的基本盘，还是总统已成为共和党的累赘——该党面临失去国会控制权的风险，部分原因正是他不断下滑的支持率。共和党焦虑的迹象体现在特朗普最后几天奔走竞选的地点。他不在摇摆州争取中间选民，而是在密西西比、得克萨斯、俄亥俄、南卡罗来纳和堪萨斯等州举行集会——这些州长期以来是共和党的票仓，但该党现在担心自己的选民可能待在家里不出来投票。
Tuesday's results will be the clearest test yet of whether that message still moves his base, or whether the president has become a liability for a party at risk of losing Congress in part because of his sinking popularity. Signs of GOP anxiety are reflected in where Trump is spending his final days campaigning. Rather than courting swing voters in battleground states, he is leading rallies in Mississippi, Texas, Ohio, South Carolina and Kansas — states that have long been Republican strongholds but where the party now worries its voters may stay home.
尽管如此，总统仍向选民坚称国家正在走向成功，并把这场选举变成对其议程的公投。“世界正在分崩离析，而我们的表现比以往任何时候都好，”他周一在密西西比州对人群说。
Still, the president is insisting to voters that the country is succeeding, and he is making the election a referendum on his agenda. "The world is falling apart, and we are doing better than we've ever done," he told a crowd in Mississippi on Monday.
第二天，在得克萨斯州的一个停留点，他开玩笑说，如果共和党获胜，他承诺给美国人的5000美元，不足以让他的支持者在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的私人会所海湖庄园吃上一顿饭。“你们将是我在海湖庄园的客人。问题是，凭5000美元，你们最多只能买个汉堡，也许再加个小甜点，”特朗普笑着说。“我甚至不确定你们能不能买得起那个。”
The next day, during a stop in Texas, he joked that the $5,000 he has promised Americans if Republicans win would not be enough for his supporters to eat a meal at Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Palm Beach, Fla. "You will be my guest at Mar-a-Lago. The problem is that for $5,000 the most you'll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert," Trump said, laughing. "I'm not even sure you could buy that."
民主党人批评总统的言论，称其无视选民的担忧。参议员亚当·希夫（民主党-加利福尼亚州）说，特朗普吹嘘国家从伊朗战争中赚钱，是特朗普白宫的一个“贴切”口号。根据国会民主党人本周发布的一份报告，特朗普的个人石油和天然气持仓现在估计价值在2250万至8160万美元之间，高于去年底的1260万至4600万美元。
Democrats have criticized the president's remarks, calling them dismissive of voters' concerns. Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said Trump boasting that the country was making money out of the Iran war was a "fitting" slogan for Trump's White House. Trump's personal oil and gas holdings are now estimated to be worth between $22.5 million and $81.6 million, up from $12.6 million to $46 million at the end of last year, according to a report released this week by congressional Democrats.
共和党全国委员会主席乔·格鲁特斯否认总统无视选民的经济痛苦。“我认为总统对我们正在经历的事情表现出了同理心，并且在拼命奋斗，”格鲁特斯在接受采访时说。被问及如何概括特朗普的收官信息时，格鲁特斯将其表述为“常识与疯狂”的选择。当被追问经济问题时，格鲁特斯指出了特朗普推动限制对小费和加班费征收联邦税、为儿童创设投资账户以及带回制造业就业岗位的举措。
Joe Gruters, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, rejected the idea that the president has dismissed voters' financial pain. "The president, I think, shows empathy about what we're going through, and he is fighting like hell," Gruters said in an interview. Asked to sum up Trump's closing message, Gruters framed it as a choice between "common sense vs. crazy." When pressed on the economy, Gruters pointed to Trump's push to limit federal taxes on tips and overtime pay, to create investment accounts for children and to bring back manufacturing jobs.
“他已将共和党转变为工人阶级的政党，”格鲁特斯说。“他全心致力于设法带回能够全面提高实际工资的工作岗位。”但这一信息可能会被长期以来定义特朗普集会的即兴发挥所掩盖。在俄亥俄州的一次集会上，在赞扬参议员乔恩·休斯特德时，特朗普岔开话题，谈论起这位共和党参议员的臀部以及说唱歌手妮琪·米娜的臀部。“我看了他的屁股，我以前从未对男人这么做过。这是真的。
"He has transformed the Republican Party into the workingman's party," Gruters said. "He is all about trying to bring back jobs that will bring up real wages across the board." But that message can be overshadowed with the off-script riffs that have long defined Trump's rallies. During a rally in Ohio, while praising Sen. Jon Husted, Trump detoured into remarks about the Republican senator's backside as well as rapper Nicki Minaj's. "I looked at his ass and I’ve never done that with a man before. It’s true.
“非正式场合：女性可以，男性不行，行吗？”特朗普说。“顺便说一句，我以前看过一个极其漂亮的屁股，妮琪·米娜的。”在另一场集会上，特朗普将目光投向密歇根州民主党参议员提名人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德，称如果当选，埃尔-赛义德在进入美国参议院会议厅前应被强制通过金属探测器安检。“任何有那种支持圣战分子记录的人都会被安检，无法登机入座，”特朗普谈到埃尔-赛义德时说。
Off the record: Women, yes, men, no, OK?" Trump said. "By the way, I looked at one hell of a beautiful ass before, Nicki Minaj." At a separate rally, Trump turned his attention to Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan, saying that if elected, El-Sayed should be forced to pass through a metal detector before entering the U.S. Senate chamber. “Anyone with that record of support for jihadists would be screened and unable to get a seat on an airplane,” Trump said of El-Sayed.
“他们当然不应该给他在美国参议院安排一个席位。”在这些时刻，信息精准地瞄准了他的基本盘，过去十年里，这部分选民一直为他毫无保留的风格喝彩。而在竞选最后冲刺阶段，特朗普花费宝贵时间争取的，正是这部分基本盘，而非摇摆选民。周一，特朗普在密西西比州为支持者造势，两年前他在那里以23个百分点的优势获胜。
“They certainly should not give him a seat in the United States Senate.”In those moments, the message is aimed squarely at his base, which over the last decade has celebrated his unfiltered style. And it is that base, more than swing voters, that Trump has spent his precious time courting in the final stretch of the campaign. On Monday, Trump rallied supporters in Mississippi, a state he carried by 23 points two years ago.
周二，他本月第四次前往得克萨斯州，为共和党参议员提名人肯·帕克斯顿助选，后者正试图避免该州三十年来首次出现全州范围民主党人获胜的局面。随后周三，特朗普本月第三次造访俄亥俄州，在一个他每次上选票都赢下的州里打防守战。而周六，特朗普将前往堪萨斯州，该州自1932年以来从未选出过民主党籍联邦参议员。
On Tuesday, he went to Texas for the fourth time this month to make the case for Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee trying to stave off what could be the first statewide Democratic victory there in three decades. Then on Wednesday, Trump was in Ohio for the third time this month, playing defense in a state he has won every time he's been on the ballot. And on Saturday, Trump is heading to Kansas, a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932.
格鲁特斯表示，这种红州巡回反映了让共和党选民走出投票站的必要性。“不能掉以轻心。必须在每一个州都拼尽全力，提醒人们为什么需要去投票，”他说。“这是一场拼投票率、拼投票率、再拼投票率的竞选。作为一个党，我们正在做一切能做的事。”堪萨斯大学政治学教授唐·海德-马凯尔表示，临近大选仍在共和党大本营部署总统助选，依然令人惊讶。
Gruters said the red state swing reflects the need to get Republicans to the polls. "You can't take anything for granted. You have to fight hard in every single state, and remind people why they need to go vote," he said. "This is a turnout, turnout, turnout race. And we're doing everything we can as a party." Don Haider-Markel, a political science professor at the University of Kansas, said it is still surprising to see the party deploy the president in Republican strongholds so close to the election.
海德尔-马克尔表示：“这确实不仅反映出（选民）对民主党的倾向，也反映出共和党选民对此次选举缺乏热情。”他说，堪萨斯州的共和党人人数超过民主党人，但如果共和党选民不出来投票，民主党人就有可能获胜。他认为，该党动员MAGA基本盘的最大资产之一，就是让特朗普亲自对他们讲话。但到目前为止，尚不清楚他的收官信息能否引起共鸣。
"It really reflects, not just the tilt toward Democrats, but also the lack of enthusiasm among Republican voters for this election," Haider-Markel said. Republicans outnumber Democrats in Kansas, but there is a possibility that Democrats can win if Republicans stay home, he said. One of the biggest assets the party has to mobilize the MAGA base is having Trump talk to them in person, he argued. But so far, it is unclear whether his closing message will resonate.
海德尔-马克尔说：“我不认为他真的在谈选民关心的问题，但我也认为他来不是为了改变人们的想法。他是在寻找能为他赢得掌声和赞誉的台词。”在一场又一场集会上，特朗普把活动变成了一场关于他自己的表演。在艾奥瓦州，国会候选人乔·米切尔向特朗普颁发了一份“世纪人物”证书。在得克萨斯州，特朗普抱怨自己去年没有获得诺贝尔和平奖。
"I don't think that he's really speaking to the issues that voters care about, but I don't think he's coming to change people's minds," Haider-Markel said. "He's looking for lines that get him applause and praise." In rally after rally, Trump has turned the event into a show about himself. In Iowa, congressional candidate Joe Mitchell presented Trump with a "man of the century" certificate. In Texas, Trump bemoaned that he was not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year.
在几场活动中，他向人群播放了一段CNN分析师的视频，称在共和党选民中，特朗普比罗纳德·里根或亚伯拉罕·林肯更受欢迎。但最后，他也试图用怀旧情绪来吸引自己的基本盘。他说：“我们一起做这件事已经11年了，从来没有过像这样的事情，政治上或其他方面可能也永远不会再有像这样的事情了。所以，让我们走出去，做我们最擅长的事，那就是在11月3日获胜。我们必须赢！”
And in several events, he has shown the crowd a video of a CNN analyst saying that among GOP voters, Trump is more popular than Ronald Reagan or Abraham Lincoln. But in the end, he also tried to appeal to his base with nostalgia. "We've been doing this together for 11 years, and there's never been anything like it and there probably never will be anything like it again politically or otherwise," he said. "So let's go out and do what we do best and that is win on Nov. 3. We gotta win!"