以《大空头》闻名的史蒂夫·艾斯曼认为，人工智能交易已接近“临界点”，但他还不准备直接做空。
Steve Eisman of "The Big Short" fame thinks the artificial intelligence trade is near a "tipping point," but he's not ready to outright bet against it yet.
“我自己的投资组合已经保守了很多。我们对很多持仓做了对冲式卖空，所以风险已经低得多得多。但我并不是净空头，”他在周四对CNBC的《 Squawk Box》节目表示。
"I've gotten much more conservative in my own portfolio. We have shorted against the box a whole bunch of our positions, so that our risk is much, much, much lower.
艾斯曼的主要担忧在于前沿算法模型。他认为，这些模型正在利用围绕其技术的恐惧氛围，建立起针对成本更低、效率更高产品的竞争性监管护城河，并掩盖一些正在走弱的基本面。科技行业的大佬们也发出过类似警告。
But I'm not, like, net short any," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Thursday. Eisman's primary concern pertains to the frontier algorithm models, which are exploiting a climate of fear around their technologies, he believes, in order to set up a competitive regulatory moat against more cost-efficient products and to obscure some faltering fundamentals. Bigwigs in the tech industry have issued similar warnings.
Anthropic在其首次IPO申报文件中将第三季度营收数据留空，但艾斯曼认为，这些数据将显示较第二季度明显减速。他说，报告中的其他数据还指向资本效率问题。
Anthropic left its third-quarter revenue figures blank in its initial IPO filing but Eisman believes they will show a significant deceleration from the second quarter. Other figures in the report point to capital efficiency issue, he said.
艾斯曼援引他收到的一份分析称，第二季度营收与设备支出的比率为2.08，第三季度为1.7，轨迹发生了显著变化。
The ratio of revenue-to-equipment-expense was 2.08 in the second quarter and 1.7 in the third, marking a significant change in trajectory, Eisman said, citing an analysis he'd been given.
不过，艾斯曼表示，他不敢对人工智能交易下定论式地做空，因为这一交易与整个市场交织得太深。他称，科技板块不可能与更广泛的股市和经济的其他部分隔离开来，“不可能”。
Yet, Eisman said he was scared to make a definitive bet against the AI trade because of how intertwined it is with the market as a whole, calling it "impossible" for the technology sector to be siloed away from the broader equity market and the rest of the economy.
“市场上很大一部分都站在另一边，而且仍在解读茶叶渣。我认为我们越来越接近了。我认为谷歌的数据吓到了人们，”他说。
"So much of the market is on the other side, and it's still reading tea leaves. I think we're getting closer. I think the numbers from Google scared people," he said.
Alphabet周三公布财报后股价大跌，此前其核心广告业务大幅回落，原因是人工智能查询正在其各类产品中取代互联网搜索。谷歌高管周三表示，他们正在进行实验，以弄清楚该如何应对。
Alphabet's stock tanked after reporting earnings on Wednesday, following a big pullback in its core advertising business as AI queries supplant internet search across its various products. Google executives said Wednesday they were running experiments to figure out what to do about it.
谷歌首席商务官菲利普·辛德勒表示：“值得注意的是，AI模式查询的强劲增长产生了影响，因为我们在AI模式中看到的变现率较低。”“我们的广告实验已显示出令人鼓舞的结果。”艾斯曼认为，Anthropic近期提交的S-1文件部分内容“极其负面”，因为该文件并未包含许多能更清晰反映公司财务状况的下季度指标。
"It's worth noting the strong growth in AI mode queries had an impact because of the lower monetization we are seeing in AI mode," Philipp Schindler, Google's chief business officer, said. "Our ad experiments have shown promising results." Portions of Anthropic's recently filed S-1 struck Eisman as "extremely negative" in light of the fact that it didn't contain many metrics for the upcoming quarter that would give a clearer picture of the company's financial situation.