法国第三季度经济意外出现萎缩，在借贷成本飙升、暴力抗议以及政治和预算不确定性的多重阻力下，经济增长基础显得疲弱。
France unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, putting the economy on a weak footing as it faces headwinds from surging borrowing costs, violent protests and political and budgetary uncertainty.
法国统计局Insee公布，第三季度国内生产总值环比下降0.1%，原因是投资继续下滑且出口下降。接受彭博调查的分析师此前预计增长0.1%。
Gross domestic product fell 0.1% from the previous three months as investment continued to decline and exports dropped, statistics agency Insee said. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated expansion of 0.1%.
对于欧元区第二大经济体而言，这一疲弱表现是一个令人担忧的信号，而当天德国、意大利和西班牙预计都将报告增长。涵盖21个成员国的欧元区整体GDP料将增长0.2%。
The weak performance is a worrying sign for the euro area’s second-largest economy on a day when Germany, Italy and Spain are all expected to report growth. A reading for the 21-nation bloc as a whole is set to show an 0.2% increase in GDP.
这一结果将凸显出欧洲整体的韧性，不仅体现在对伊朗战争带来的通胀冲击的抵御上，也体现在对今夏大部分时间造成影响的热浪和干旱的抵御上。尽管如此，欧洲央行仍认为存在下行风险，并且在本周按兵不动后，仍有可能在12月进行第三次加息。
That outcome would highlight Europe’s broader sturdiness, not just to the Iran war’s inflationary impact but to the heat waves and droughts that marred much of the summer. Still, the European Central Bank sees downside risks and could yet hike interest rates for a third time in December after standing pat this week.
全球债券收益率飙升是另一个令人头疼的问题，而法国摇摇欲坠的财政和政治状况使其成为该地区的焦点。法国经济本就是欧元区的主要落后国家，在内需疲软、投资下降以及高温天气打击农业的情况下，上半年仅勉强避免衰退。
The jump in global bond yields is another headache, with France’s shaky fiscal and political position making it the region’s focal point. Its economy was already the euro area’s major laggard, only narrowly avoiding a recession in the first half amid soft domestic demand, falling investment and as hot weather hurt agriculture.
近期前景也难让人安心。总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼领导的少数派政府正就紧缩措施再次陷入议会摊牌，背景是社会和政治动荡，而明年的总统选举中极右翼在民调中领先。
The near-term outlook offers little reassurance. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s minority government is in the midst of another parliamentary showdown over austerity measures, against a backdrop of social and political upheaval before presidential elections next year where the far right lead polls.
10月17日，围绕教育经费和生活成本上升的抗议演变为街头暴力，发生大规模抢劫，数千人被捕。调查显示企业正采取观望态度，而一项消费者信心指标跌至13年低点。
Protests over education funding and the rising costs of living boiled over into street violence on Oct. 17, with widespread looting and thousands of arrests. Surveys have shown businesses are taking a wait-and-see approach, while a gauge of consumer confidence slumped to a 13-year low.
经济疲软将加剧控制预算赤字的挑战。在将GDP增长预测下调至0.5%后，政府已放弃今年略微缩小赤字的目标。法国国家统计与经济研究所的数据显示，若第四季度陷入停滞，2026年产出仅将增长0.2%。
The economy’s weakness will exacerbate the challenge of reining in the budget deficit. The government has already abandoned its objective to slightly narrow this year’s gap after cutting its GDP-growth forecast to 0.5%. Insee’s data showed that stagnation in the fourth quarter would see output rise by just 0.2% in 2026.
根据周五的报告，第三季度家庭支出略有回升，增长0.2%。但投资下降，出口下滑1.7%，导致贸易对GDP的贡献为负0.6个百分点。今年以来，企业投资每个季度都在下降。
According to Friday’s report, household spending recovered slightly in the third quarter, gaining 0.2%. But investment fell and a 1.7% decline in exports resulted in a negative 0.6 percentage point contribution to GDP from trade. Business investment has dropped every quarter this year.
另一项仅针对9月份的月度消费者支出指标显示，在8月份同样收缩之后，9月意外下降0.5%。经济学家此前预测增长0.1%。
A separate monthly measure of consumer spending for September alone revealed an unexpected 0.5% fall after the same contraction in August. Economists had forecast 0.1% growth.