一项新民调显示，民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿在堪萨斯州参议院选战中以微弱优势领先共和党人罗杰·马歇尔。
Democrat Adam Hamilton is narrowly leading Republican Roger Marshall in the Kansas Senate race, according to a new poll.
在爱默生学院民调中，48.7%的受访者表示他们将把票投给或已经投给汉密尔顿，45.2%的受访者表示将投给或已投给马歇尔。一名自由意志党候选人获得2.9%的选票。该民调的置信区间（相当于误差范围）为正负3.5个百分点。
In the Emerson College Polling poll, 48.7 percent said they would cast their ballot or have already cast their ballot for Hamilton, while 45.2 percent said the same of Marshall. A libertarian candidate garnered 2.9 percent of the vote. The credibility interval for the poll, comparable to a margin of error, is plus or minus 3.5 percent.
马歇尔在堪萨斯州以民主党人身份参选却处于领先地位，这一点值得注意，因为该州历来是可靠的红色州。堪萨斯州自20世纪60年代中期以来从未在总统选举中投票给民主党人。该州自20世纪30年代以来也从未选举民主党人进入参议院。
Marshall’s lead as a Democrat in Kansas is notable, with the state having a reliably red history. Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since the mid-1960s. The state also hasn’t elected a Democrat for Senate since the 1930s.
但共和党在本轮选举周期面临政治逆风，包括不受欢迎的伊朗战争、特朗普总统支持率下滑以及对生活成本的担忧。战争期间，石油行业的关键水道霍尔木兹海峡已被关闭，推高了能源成本。
But the GOP is facing political headwinds this cycle in the form of the unpopular war in Iran, President Trump’s slumping approval and concerns about the cost of living. Amid the war, the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the oil industry, has been closed, driving up energy costs.
堪萨斯州农业部门地位显著，据美国汽车协会数据，该州柴油价格已从去年的约3.46美元上涨至周四下午的约6.05美元。该州普通汽油每加仑价格约为3.94美元，高于去年的约2.72美元。
In Kansas, a state with a notable agriculture sector, the price of diesel has risen from about $3.46 last year to about $6.05 on Thursday afternoon, according to AAA. And the price of a regular gallon of gas in the state was at about $3.94, up from about $2.72 last year.
无党派选举预测机构《库克政治报告》和Decision Desk HQ均将汉密尔顿与马歇尔的对决评为“胜负难料”。在爱默生学院民调中，51%的受访者表示不认可特朗普的工作表现，44.9%表示认可，4.1%没有意见。
Both the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ rate the Hamilton-Marshall race as a “toss up.”In the Emerson College poll, 51 percent of respondents said they were against Trump’s job performance, while 44.9 percent were for it and 4.1 percent did not have an opinion.
爱默生学院民调于10月26日至28日进行，调查了堪萨斯州800名可能投票的选民。
The Emerson College poll took place from Oct. 26 to 28 and featured 800 likely voters in Kansas.