周四晚间，阿拉斯加州共和党州长拒绝承诺，如果民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉在参议员竞选中获胜，将认证选举结果。这意味着，如果她确实胜出，拒绝让佩尔托拉就职极有可能成为右翼的一个著名事由——唐纳德·特朗普要求共和党人在被“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动开除党籍的威胁下对此做出承诺。
On Thursday night, the Republican governor of Alaska refused to commit to certifying the outcome in the Senate race if Democrat Mary Peltola wins. Which means that if she does triumph, refusing to seat Peltola could well become a cause célèbre on the right—one that Donald Trump requires Republicans to commit to under threat of excommunication from MAGA.
民主党人已经在为这一系列情形做准备。虽然这种共和党策略极不可能成功，但局面可能会变得非常难看。
Democrats are already preparing for a range of scenarios along these lines. And while this GOP gambit is very unlikely to succeed, it could get awfully nasty.
州长迈克·邓利维的这番言论是在讨论本周一份有争议的报道时作出的，该报道称民主党人密谋让第二个“丹·沙利文”出现在选票上，以分流共和党参议员丹·沙利文的选票。州长已下令对这一举动展开刑事调查，有记者问他，如果佩尔托拉仍在接受该调查，他是否会认证选举结果。
Governor Mike Dunleavy’s comments came in a discussion about the controversial report this week that Democrats conspired to get a second “Dan Sullivan” on the ballot to siphon votes from GOP Senator Dan Sullivan. The governor has ordered a criminal probe of the move, and a reporter asked him if he’ll certify the election if she’s still under that investigation.
“如果我们认定发生了不该发生的、违法的事情，我们将据此采取行动，”邓利维说。“这实际上可能会影响某人能否在联邦参议院就职。” 简要回顾：《纽约时报》报道称，包括佩尔托拉竞选团队在内的民主党操盘手参与了一个精心策划的计划，鼓励人们竞选参议员，以从共和党现任议员手中拉走选票。佩尔托拉本人知情程度尚不清楚，但似乎有许多高级操盘手参与其中。
“If we conclude that there were things that should not have happened, that are illegal, we will act on that,” Dunleavy said. “That may in fact impact whether somebody is seated in the U.S. Senate.”A quick recap: The New York Times reported that Democratic Party operatives, including on the Peltola campaign, were involved in an elaborate scheme to encourage people to run for Senate to pull votes from the GOP incumbent. It’s unclear how much Peltola herself knew about this, but many senior operatives appear to have been involved.
这个阴谋有多恶劣？在我看来，这是卑鄙且反民主的行为。但就“搞阴招”而言，这属于常规操作。事实上，民主党人迅速列举了共和党人从事大量类似伎俩的诸多案例。让我们面对现实：我们生活在一个这样的世界里，特朗普下令多个共和党控制的州议会实施极端选区划分，明确宣称目的是控制众议院；特朗普呼吁国会共和党人夺取州政府管理的选举控制权；而特朗普至今仍拒绝承诺接受中期选举失败的结果。
How bad was this plot? In my view, it’s scummy and antidemocratic conduct. But it’s routine, as ratfucking goes. Indeed, Democrats quickly cited numerous examples of Republicans engaged in lots of similar chicanery. Let’s get real: We live in a world where Trump ordered multiple GOP state legislatures to execute extreme gerrymanders for the explicitly declared purpose of holding the House, where Trump has called on congressional Republicans to seize control of state-administered elections, and where Trump still won’t commit to accepting a midterm defeat.
在那个世界里，阿拉斯加的这出闹剧不过是极其微不足道的选举小插曲。选票上会清楚地标明党派，不太可能产生任何影响。此外，正如我在2018年著作中所写，如果在政治中只有一方遵守公平竞争的规范，那本身就是一种破坏稳定的因素。一般来说，双方硬球战术的相互升级，可能是迫使双方最终达成某种缓和的唯一途径。
In that world, the Alaska saga is pretty damn small electoral potatoes. The ballot will be clearly labeled by party, and it’s unlikely to make any difference. Besides, as I wrote in my 2018 book, if only one side adheres to norms of fair play in politics, that is itself destabilizing. Generally speaking, mutual escalation of hardball tactics may be the only way to compel some kind of détente over time.
撇开这些不谈，第二位“丹·沙利文”表示他参选的决定是他自己的，州法院（在另一起诉讼中）已经支持了他的参选权。然而，特朗普的司法部已经提起诉讼，试图强迫阿拉斯加不认证选举结果，坚称第二位“丹·沙利文”会让任何结果（共和党获胜的结果除外）都无效。阿拉斯加州长就登场了。请仔细看他的完整表态：“我们将进行调查。我们将遵循法律。如果我们认定发生了不该发生的事——即违法之事——我们将据此采取行动。而这实际上可能影响某人能否就任美国参议员。”邓利维真的能“采取行动”影响佩尔托拉能否就任吗？也许可以。
All that aside, the second “Dan Sullivan” says his decision to run was his own, and state courts (in a separate lawsuit) have already upheld his right to do so. Yet Trump’s Justice Department is already suing to force Alaska not to certify the results, insisting the second “Dan Sullivan” will invalidate any outcome (other than a GOP victory, of course). Here’s where Alaska’s governor comes in. Look closely at his full remarks: We are going to investigate. We are going to follow the law. And if we conclude there were things that should not have happened—that are illegal—we will act on that. And that may in fact impact whether somebody is seated in the U.S. Senate. Can Dunleavy really “act” to impact whether Peltola is seated? Maybe.
据选举法专家里克·皮尔德斯称，州长和副州长负责向美国参议院传递经认证的选举结果。值得注意的是，副州长是共和党人南希·达尔斯特罗姆，她此前曾取消第二位丹·沙利文的参选资格（州法院推翻了这一决定）。她也公开与“让美国再次伟大”运动保持一致。所以我们知道她的忠诚在哪里。
According to election law expert Rick Pildes, the governor and lieutenant governor transmit a certified election result to the U.S. Senate. Notably, the latter is Republican Nancy Dahlstrom, who previously disqualified the second Dan Sullivan from running (the state courts overturned this). She’s also openly aligned with MAGA. So we know where her loyalties lie.
因此，他们两人理论上可以拒绝传递认证结果。但这将立即面临法庭挑战。正如民主党选举律师马克·埃利亚斯所指出的，发送认证结果是州长的法定职责。
The two of them, then, could theoretically decline to transmit certification. But this would immediately face court challenge. As Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias notes, sending certification is the governor’s legal duty.
“无论州长有何感受，签署文件送交美国参议院是他的法定义务，”伊莱亚斯告诉我。“如果他不签，就会被起诉。而且他最终还是得签。”法庭争端的焦点将在于，是否有真实证据表明，选票上的第二个“丹·沙利文”确实让足够多的选民产生混淆，从而影响了选举结果。“那极不可能，也极难证明，”皮尔德斯告诉我。他指出，阿拉斯加的排序复选制让这种可能性更加渺茫，因为任何对两个“丹·沙利文”感到困惑的选民，如果非参议员丹·沙利文在首轮被淘汰，几乎肯定会将另一位作为第二选择投票。
“Whatever the governor may feel, it is his legal obligation to sign the paperwork to go to the U.S. Senate,” Elias tells me. “If he doesn’t, he will be sued. And he’ll have to sign it anyway.”The court battle would turn on whether there’s any real evidence that the second “Dan Sullivan” on the ballot legitimately did confuse enough voters to affect the outcome. “That would be highly unlikely and extremely difficult to prove,” Pildes told me. He noted that Alaska’s ranked-choice voting makes it even more remote, since any voter confused about the two “Dan Sullivans” would almost certainly vote for the other as second choice should non-Senator Dan Sullivan be eliminated in the first round.
一个关键细微之处：请注意，邓利维表示，只有在州政府对选票造假的调查发现犯罪行为（这并非不可能，但极不可能）时，他才可能拒绝发送认证。但皮尔德斯说，即使真发现了犯罪行为，那也不能成为拒绝认证的理由，法院会推翻这一决定。
A key nuance: Note that Dunleavy says he might refuse to send certification only if the state investigation of the ballot packing finds criminality (which is not impossible but highly unlikely). But even if it did, that still wouldn’t justify non-certification, Pildes says, and the courts would overturn it.
这是因为，只有确凿地认定结果确实受到污染，且多数派未能如愿，才足以构成理由，皮尔德斯说。法律专家表示，特朗普的联邦诉讼不会迫使阿拉斯加州不予认证，因为这会干涉该州受宪法保护的选举监督权。（另一个复杂因素是，阿拉斯加州将在12月迎来新州长；哪个党派获胜将至关重要。）参议院会拒绝让佩尔托拉就职吗？
That’s because only a concrete finding of a genuinely tainted outcome in which a majority didn’t get its way would suffice, Pildes says. And Trump’s federal lawsuit won’t force Alaska not to certify, legal experts say, because it interferes with the state’s constitutionally protected oversight of its elections. (In another complication, Alaska gets a new governor in December; which party wins will matter.) Could the Senate refuse to seat Peltola?
选举法专家里克·哈森说，理论上，无论阿拉斯加州发送何种认证，参议院都可以投票推迟她的宣誓就职。随后将启动一个复杂的内部程序，届时许多事情将取决于哪个党派控制参议院及其规则委员会。“这很可能会得到解决，”哈森说，“但过程可能会很难看。”
Theoretically, the Senate could vote to postpone her swearing-in regardless of the certification sent by Alaska, says election law expert Rick Hasen. Then a complicated internal process would kick in, and much would turn on which party controlled the Senate and its Rules Committee at that point. “It would likely be resolved,” Hasen says, “but it could get ugly.”
归根结底：所有这些法律细节几乎都与要点无关。如果佩尔托拉获胜，从法律层面讲，这纯粹是一场合法的胜利。但特朗普显然正在为利用所有这些施压点来拖延她的就职铺平道路，无论事实和法律如何规定。最近被问及佩尔托拉是否应该就职时，特朗普宣称：“很难相信她甚至能被允许参选。”因此，即使特朗普施压阿拉斯加州的联邦诉讼不会奏效，其真实目的其实是制造结果受到污染的表象。
Here’s the bottom line: All these legal details are almost beside the point. If Peltola wins, it simply will be a legitimate victory as a legal matter. But Trump is clearly laying the groundwork to exploit all these pressure points to stall her seating regardless of what facts and law dictate. Asked recently if Peltola should be seated, Trump declared: “It’s hard to believe that she can even be allowed to run.”So even if Trump’s federal lawsuit pressuring Alaska won’t work, it’s actually designed to feed the mere impression that the results are tainted.
然后，他将利用自己制造的公众困惑，大声要求阿拉斯加州长不予认证。他将坚持要求——同样依赖他帮助制造的困惑——参议院共和党人破坏佩尔托拉的就职。
He will then exploit public confusion—created by him—to loudly demand that the Alaska governor refrain from certification. He will insist—again, relying on confusion he helped create—that Senate Republicans sabotage Peltola’s seating.
这一切成功的可能性极小。但如果你不认为特朗普将竭尽全力尽可能长时间地拖延不可避免的结果——如果你不认为这可能会变得极其恶劣甚至暴力——那说明你一直没在关注。
It’s all very unlikely to succeed. But if you don’t think Trump will do everything in his power to delay the inevitable for as long as possible—and if you don’t think this could get extremely vicious or even violent—then you haven’t been paying attention.