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惠誉将法国评级展望调至负面,法国收到预算警告France Gets Budget Warning as Fitch Turns Negative on Rating

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惠誉评级将法国的信用评级展望下调至负面,这一非计划内的举动凸显了该国公共财政恶化的速度。

France’s credit score was put on a negative outlook by Fitch Ratings, an unscheduled move that highlights how quickly the country’s public finances are souring.

惠誉在周五晚间发布的声明中表示,此次调整“反映了自我们2026年8月评审以来的恶化,包括经济增长疲软、借贷成本上升以及赤字扩大”。惠誉补充道:“这些因素使债务动态恶化,且起点已处于疲弱状态。持续的政治分裂和严峻的社会背景增加了实现持续财政整固的难度。”法国在惠誉的评级体系中仍维持A+级,与葡萄牙和比利时持平,距离垃圾级还有六个等级。

The change “reflects a deterioration since our August 2026 review comprising weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and a wider deficit,” the company said in a statement late on Friday. “These worsen debt dynamics from an already weak starting point,” Fitch added. “Persistent political fragmentation and a challenging social backdrop increase the difficulty of delivering sustained fiscal consolidation.”France remains at A+ on the company’s assessment, on par with Portugal and Belgium, and six notches above junk.

此番宣布正值包括巴黎在内的多个城市即将迎来又一个抗议周末之际。当局正试图遏制本月早些时候大规模骚乱引发的暴力事件。

The announcement arrives on the eve of another weekend of protests in cities including Paris. Authorities are trying to contain violence after large-scale riots earlier this month.

惠誉在声明中称:“总统大选前出现的政策辩论并未实质性增强惠誉对持久赤字削减前景的信心。针对公共服务和生活成本的大规模抗议进一步使财政整固的社会背景复杂化。”这一判决是对法国无法找到途径遏制其不断膨胀的债务负担的最新指责,该国在过去几周处于发达国家债券市场焦虑的最前沿。本月法国债券收益率涨幅超过所有发达国家,触及24年高位。

“The emerging policy debate ahead of the presidential election has not materially strengthened Fitch’s confidence in the prospects for durable deficit reduction,” it said in the statement. “Large protests over public services and living costs further complicate the social context for fiscal consolidation.”The verdict is the latest indictment of France’s inability to find a way to contain its swelling debt burden, which put the nation at the forefront of bond market anxiety over the past weeks. French yields have risen more than any other in the developed world this month, hitting the highest level in 24 years.

惠誉在法国及其公共财政问题上采取了明显积极的立场,曾率先于主要竞争对手之前实施降级。相比之下,评级高出一级的穆迪评级上周选择不予下调,同时维持负面展望。

Fitch has taken a noticeably activist stance on France and its public finances, having led downgrades before major rivals. By contrast, Moody’s Ratings, whose credit score is one notch higher, last week opted against a cut while keeping its negative outlook.

财政部长罗兰·莱斯屈尔当时称赞这一缓冲期“是对我们经济稳健性和政府提交预算可信度的认可”。周五,他的语气变得更加凝重,表示惠誉的“评估凸显了在年底前通过负责任预算的迫切必要性”。该公司指出,自上次评估以来,公共财政前景已恶化。

The reprieve was hailed by Finance Minister Roland Lescure at the time as a move that “recognizes the solidity of our economy and the credibility of the budget presented by the government.”On Friday, he struck a more somber tone, saying Fitch’s “assessment underlines the pressing need to pass a responsible budget before the end of the year.”The company observed that the outlook for the public finances has worsened since the last time it looked at the matter.

惠誉表示:“我们估计,为稳定债务所需的累计财政调整已从8月的3.0%上升至GDP的3.5%左右。”

“We estimate the cumulative fiscal adjustment needed to stabilize debt has risen to around 3.5% of GDP, from 3.0% in August,” Fitch said.

该国不断攀升的债务山,由预计今年将膨胀至经济产出5.4%的赤字所助长。政治僵局、增长放缓和利息成本上升使整顿财政的尝试受挫。

The country’s ever-increasing debt mountain is fueled by a deficit set to blow out to 5.4% of economic output this year. Political gridlock, slumping growth and rising interest costs have derailed attempts at consolidation.

周五早些时候公布的数据显示,第三季度产出收缩,受持续低迷的投资拖累,凸显了经济挑战。

The economic challenge were underscored earlier Friday when data showed output contracted in the third quarter, dragged down by a persistent slump in investment.

总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努提出了一项财政法案,旨在大幅压缩开支并增加税收收入,以实现明年5%的赤字目标,但该蓝图前景未卜,因他在议会中没有多数席位。

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has proposed a finance bill to sharply constrain spending and raise tax revenues to meet a deficit goal of 5% next year, but the blueprint’s future is uncertain as he has no majority in parliament.

反对派团体不愿妥协,因为他们将重心放在六个月后的总统大选上。从极左翼到极右翼的主要候选人正提出激进的政策变革,包括降低退休年龄和大幅加税企业。

Opposition groups are unwilling to compromise as they focus on presidential elections six months from now. Leading candidates from the far-left to the far-right are proposing radical changes in policy, including a lower retirement age and vast tax hikes for business.

加剧的不确定性导致一项受密切关注的债券风险指标升至上次欧元区债务危机时的水平。法国与德国(该地区的避险资产)10年期收益率利差本月触及178个基点,而9月初抛售加速前仅为85个基点。周五该利差约为165个基点。

The heightened uncertainty has caused a closely watched gauge of bond risk to rise to levels last seen during the euro-area debt crisis. The spread between 10-year yields in France and Germany, the region’s safe asset, reached 178 basis points this month, compared to just 85 basis points at the start of September before the selloff picked up. It was around 165 on Friday.

惠誉周五表示,该国事态发展需要“偏离日程安排”,因此发布了这一意外公告。惠誉补充称,对法国的下一次定期评级审查应在2月底前结束。

Fitch said on Friday that developments in the country warrant a “deviation from the calendar,” hence its surprise announcement. It added that the next scheduled review of France should conclude by the end of February.

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