作为全球最大的电池制造商，宁德时代（CATL）正在加码换电和储能等新业务，以在日益激烈的价格战和不断加大的盈利压力下寻找新的增长驱动力。
Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL) has doubled down on new businesses including battery swapping and energy storage as the world’s largest battery maker seeks new growth drivers amid intensifying price wars and mounting pressure on profitability.
但这套新路径绝非一帆风顺。像蔚来这样老牌的市场参与者已经在换电领域建立起了强大的业务存在，而比亚迪则巩固了其在储能系统领域的地位。
But the new path is far from straightforward. Established players like Nio have already built a strong presence in battery swapping, while BYD has reinforced its position in energy-storage systems.
总部位于香港的咨询公司WaterRock Energy Economics总监张刘统（Lucas Zhang Liutong）表示，这两个领域的竞争“已经相当激烈”。
Lucas Zhang Liutong, director of Hong Kong-based consultancy WaterRock Energy Economics, said competition in both sectors was “already quite intense”.
张刘统补充称，为了保持其领先地位，宁德时代需要超越单一的电池电芯制造商身份，转变为一个拥有更高集成度生态系统的“标准制定平台”。
To maintain its leadership, CATL needed to evolve beyond being a battery cell manufacturer and become “a standard-setting platform” with a more integrated ecosystem, Zhang added.
这家总部位于中国东南部福建省的企业本月已宣布与汽车制造商达成四项战略换电合作，其中包括中国中央直属国有企业东风汽车集团以及华为技术有限公司旗下的深圳市引望智能技术有限公司。
The firm, based in southeastern China’s Fujian province, has announced four strategic battery-swapping partnerships with car manufacturers this month, including China’s central state-owned Dongfeng Motor Corporation and Huawei Technologies subsidiary Shenzhen Yinwang Intelligent Technology.
换电技术是指在3到5分钟内通过物理更换耗尽的电池来为电动汽车提供动力，它已成为对比亚迪主导的“闪充”技术（可在不到10分钟内将电池电量补充至接近满电水平）的主要替代方案。
Battery swapping, which powers an electric vehicle (EV) by physically replacing a depleted battery with a fully charged one in three to five minutes, has emerged as a major alternative to BYD-led “flash charging” technology, which can replenish batteries to near-full levels in less than 10 minutes.
在电动汽车市场增长放缓的背景下，中国车企正竞相吸引燃油车车主。
Chinese vehicle makers are racing to attract petrol-car owners amid a growth slowdown in the EV market.
以长期坚持换电技术而闻名的蔚来，也已与中广核新能源控股有限公司以及吉利汽车母公司吉利控股展开合作，以扩大该技术的应用。
Nio, known for its long-term commitment to battery swapping, has also formed partnerships with CGN New Energy Holdings and Geely Holding, the parent of Geely Auto, to expand the technology’s adoption.
值得注意的是，根据中国乘用车协会9月发布的一份报告，吉利在8月份是宁德时代的的最大客户，占当月电池总供应量的9.6%。
Notably, Geely was CATL’s largest customer in August, accounting for 9.6 per cent of the month’s total battery supply, according to a report by the China Passenger Car Association released in September.
与此同时，宁德时代最近成立了一家新的全资储能科技子公司，注册资本为50亿元人民币（约合7.5亿美元），其商业计划包括开发人工智能软件。
Meanwhile, CATL recently established a new wholly owned energy-storage technology subsidiary with registered capital of 5 billion yuan (US$750 million), with business plans that include the development of artificial intelligence software.
在国际业务方面，该公司于周二宣布与德国储能解决方案提供商Intilion开展一项新的3吉瓦时钠离子电池项目。
Internationally, the firm announced on Tuesday a new 3 gigawatt-hour sodium-ion battery project with Intilion, a German provider of energy storage solutions.
作为仅次于宁德时代的中国第二大电动汽车电池制造商，比亚迪也加快了其储能业务的海外扩张。其波兰项目在协议签署仅三个月后的9月下旬正式动工建设。
BYD, China’s second-largest EV battery maker after CATL, has also accelerated the overseas expansion of its energy-storage business. Construction began on its Polish project in late September, just three months after the agreement was signed.
向储能领域的转型反映出整个行业向更高增长、更具可见性市场细分方向发展的更广泛趋势。
The shift towards energy storage reflects a broader industry trend towards a higher-growth and more visible market segment.
惠誉评级（Fitch Ratings）亚太区企业评级高级总监杨菁表示，尽管该行业在总体电力消费中所占份额依然不大，但来自人工智能数据中心对稳定电力供应的需求依然是全球电池储能系统订单增长的关键驱动力。
Demand from AI data centres for stable power supply remained a key driver of growth in global battery energy-storage system orders, despite the sector’s still modest share of overall electricity consumption, said Yang Jing, director of Asia-Pacific corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings.
摩根士丹利本周发布的一份报告显示，进军新业务之际，分析师警告称，如果电动汽车电池出口及其利润率更高的储能业务未能对第四季度收益做出更大贡献，中国内地的持续价格战可能会侵蚀宁德时代的基本面。
The move into new businesses also came as analysts warned that persistent price wars in mainland China could erode CATL’s fundamentals if exports of EV batteries and its higher-margin energy-storage operations failed to make a larger contribution to fourth-quarter earnings, according to a note by Morgan Stanley published this week.
宁德时代第三季度利润增长的大幅放缓，已经将其在香港上市的股票拖至上市以来的历史最低点，因为投资者担心中国恢复征收电池消费税、出口退税减少以及不断上升的海外贸易壁垒可能会拖累公司的业绩。
CATL’s sharp slowdown in third-quarter profit growth has already dragged its Hong Kong-listed shares to a record low since their debut, as investors worry that China’s resumed battery consumption tax, a reduction in export tax rebates and rising overseas trade barriers could weigh on the company’s performance.
野村证券（Nomura）分析师张家豪（Ethan Zhang）在10月20日的一份报告中表示，新的税收负担可能会在短期内损害宁德时代的单位盈利能力，他将2026年至2028年的盈利预测下调了多达10.2%。
Nomura analyst Ethan Zhang said the new tax burden could hurt CATL’s unit profitability in the near term, cutting his earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by as much as 10.2 per cent, according to a note on October 20.
根据《南华早报》看到的宁德时代10月20日业绩说明会会议纪要，这家电池巨头也承认，其正在讨论与车企分摊税收负担的方式。
The battery giant also acknowledged that it was discussing ways to share the tax burden with carmakers, according to notes from its October 20 earnings call seen by the South China Morning Post.
不过，惠誉的杨菁预测，随着第四季度后交付转向利润率更高的产品以及重新谈判的客户合同效果开始显现，宁德时代的盈利能力可能正在接近底部。
Fitch’s Yang, however, projected that CATL’s profitability could be nearing a bottom, with deliveries shifting towards higher-margin products and the effects of renegotiated customer contracts beginning to take hold after the fourth quarter.