
选民于2026年10月28日在明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯的伯特利路德教堂的一个提前投票点填写选票。
Voters fill out their ballots at an early voting polling place at Bethel Lutheran Church on October 28, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minn.
斯蒂芬·马图伦(Stephen Maturen)/盖蒂图片社(Getty Images)在NPR应用程序(NPR App)中获取有关中期选举及更多内容的最新消息在选举日到来之前,有许多关于可能会发生什么、不同结果的影响可能是什么,甚至是报道选举是怎样的等问题。在与NPR政治播客(NPR Politics Podcast)的合作中,听众们发来了他们关于选举和政治的问题,供我们的政治记者解答。
Stephen Maturen/Getty Images Get the latest on the midterms & more in the NPR App Ahead of Election Day, there are a lot of questions about what might happen, what the implications of different outcomes might be and even what it's like to cover elections. In collaboration with the NPR Politics Podcast, listeners sent in their questions about the election and politics for our political correspondents to answer.
许多政治民调最近都出现了错误。作为一名记者,你如何利用民调结果提供准确的新闻报道?
Many political polls have been wrong recently. How can you as a reporter provide an accurate news piece utilizing poll results?
这是每个选举周期都会出现的一个常见问题,但这有点像在说:“我不喜欢媒体,因为媒体有偏见。”就像有好记者和坏记者一样,也有好民调和坏民调。
This is a common question every election cycle, but it's a little like saying, "I don't like the media because the media is biased." There are good polls and bad polls just like there are good reporters and bad reporters.
毫无疑问,确实存在一些备受瞩目的失准情况,尤其是在州一级。在竞选形势方面,全国性民调实际上一直相当不错,只是对共和党投票率的估计略有偏低。但请记住,这些民调存在误差范围。这意味着一个正负3或4个百分点的民调,其实际区间为6到8个百分点。这很重要,因为在一个选举结果极为接近的国家里,美国人所期望的那种精确度让民调注定要失败,因为民调的目的并不是那么具体。它们设定的是一个相对模糊的区间。
There have no doubt been some high-profile misses, particularly at the state level. National polls have actually been pretty good when it comes to the horse race, with a slight underestimation of Republican turnout. But remember, these polls have margins of error. That means a poll with +/- 3 or 4 percentage points is actually a range of 6 to 8 points. That's important because in a country with very close elections, the kind of precision that Americans expect sets up the polls for failure because they're not intended to be that specific. They set more of a fuzzy range.
州级调查出现了大量垃圾民调,这次甚至还有几份虚假民调。因此,密切关注民调机构的质量非常重要。出现这种情况的原因是地方新闻业的衰落。地方报纸和电视台根本没有像全国性媒体那样多的资金来支付优质、严谨且频繁的民调费用。
State surveys have seen a lot of junk polls, even a couple fake ones this time around. So it's really important to pay attention to the quality of the pollster. The reason for this is because of the decline of local journalism. Local newspapers and TV stations just don't have the kind of money that national outlets do to pay for good, rigorous and frequent polling.
竞选形势民调甚至不是民调的最佳用途。我经常谈论民调,但你很少听我谈论候选人之间的具体差距,除非出现了向某个方向移动指标的趋势。竞争非常激烈,在许多地方都在误差范围内,这才是真正需要传达的全部。遗憾的是,一些媒体过分强调竞选形势,而最有价值的内容在表面之下。重要问题和议题上是否存在随时间变化且具有统计学意义的趋势?例如,如果没有这些数据,我们就不会知道公众舆论在重要议题、支持率、态度以及人们对这些事物感受强烈程度上变化有多快。
Horse-race polling isn't even the best use of polling. I talk a lot about polls, but you rarely hear me talking about specific margins between candidates, unless there's been a trend moving the needle in a certain direction. The races are close, within margin of error in many places, and that's all that really needs to be conveyed. Unfortunately, some outlets emphasize the horse race, but the best stuff is underneath. Are there trends over time with statistically significant movement on important questions and issues? For example, we wouldn't know how quickly public opinion moved on important issues, approval ratings, attitudes and how strongly people feel about those things without this data.
此外,对于那些认为记者根本不该使用民调的人,请理解:竞选团队和企业花费数百万美元进行民调,以决定资金投向、行程安排和使用何种信息。他们聘用的民调机构就是你们在外面听到的那些。话虽如此,民调只是一种工具。它不是万能的,应该与历史背景、竞选团队采访和实地走访相结合,而这些也是美国国家公共电台(NPR)的优先事项。
Also, for those who don't think reporters should use polls at all, understand that campaigns and corporations spend millions of dollars on polling to inform where they spend money, where they travel and what messages to use. They use the same pollsters you hear about externally. All that said, polling is one tool. It's not everything, and it should be mixed with historical context, reporting with campaigns, and being on the ground, which are all priorities of NPR's as well.
多梅尼科·蒙塔纳罗,NPR资深政治编辑兼记者 您更倾向于报道中期选举还是总统大选年?中期选举有哪些独特机遇?
Domenico Montanaro, NPR senior political editor and correspondent Do you prefer reporting on midterms or presidential election years? Are there unique opportunities that midterms have?
总统大选当然更容易报道,因为只有两方角逐一个职位。而且,普通民众对总统大选非常感兴趣,这从总统大选到中期选举投票率的下降就能看出。但中期选举同样影响深远——而且也能很有意思。
Presidential elections are certainly easier to cover in the sense that there are two sides who are looking to be in one job. Plus, regular people are very interested in presidential elections, as is evident by the decline in turnout from presidentials to midterms. But midterm elections are also consequential — and can be a lot of fun.
在下选票竞选中,你经常会遇到很多古怪的候选人,他们有着有趣的故事线,这些在总统大选这种“日食”般的选举中可能根本见不到光。而且,我是从报道中期选举起家的,当时研究2006年选举,了解每一场国会竞选,那非常迷人——那些人物、不同类型的地方、经济和人群,在这个幅员辽阔的国家里。——中期选举期间的报道有趣得多!总统候选人的集会安保森严、场地巨大如体育场。大量时间坐着等待,用长焦镜头拍摄,被困在记者围栏里。
You get a lot of quirky candidates in down-ballot races sometimes with interesting storylines that might not see a lot of daylight in a presidential election, which is like a solar eclipse. Plus, I got my start covering midterm elections, researching the 2006 elections and learning about every single congressional race, and it was fascinating — the characters, the different types of places and economies and people in this very large country. - Reporting during the midterms is so much more fun! Rallies for presidential candidates have tons of security and stadium-size venues. A lot of sitting and waiting, using your camera zoom and being stuck in a press pen.
跟随竞选众议员或参议员的候选人,尤其是在周期早期,会亲密得多。今年,我采访过在古董店、农贸市场、汽车工人联合会(UAW)野餐会、家庭农场和以烟跳队员为主题的精酿啤酒厂竞选的候选人。有更多机会近距离观察候选人,看他们如何与选民互动,甚至提问。——美国国家公共电台(NPR)国会记者 萨姆·格林格拉斯我个人喜欢所有选举,这也是总统大选年如此精彩的原因,你能得到一整套丰富多样的竞争。
Tagging along with a candidate for House or Senate, especially early in the cycle, can be so much more intimate. This year, I've covered candidates at an antique shop, a farmer's market, a UAW picnic, a family farm and a smokejumper-themed brewery. There is more opportunity to see candidates up close, watch them interact with voters and even ask them questions. - Sam Gringlas NPR congressional reporter I personally like all elections, which is what makes a presidential year so great, you get a whole smorgasbord of contests.
竞选名单的首位当然会消耗大量关注度,但我发现,花时间陪伴国会候选人甚至州议会候选人,往往能更了解选情走向。而且,与中期选举年不同,更多选民参与其中,这造就了更好的选民采访。但请过周半再来看看我的睡眠债情况,以及我是否还会说“我喜欢所有选举”,因为这可能只是隧道尽头的曙光、大选前的欣快感在作祟。
The top of the ticket certainly consumes a lot of oxygen but I've found you can often learn more about how the election is going by spending time with congressional candidates or even candidates for the state legislature. And, unlike midterm years, more voters are engaged, which makes for better voter interviews. But, please check back in a week and a half to see how my sleep debt is doing and whether I still say I "like all elections," because this may just be the light at the end of the tunnel pre-election euphoria speaking.
塔玛拉·基思 NPR资深政治记者有没有哪场你出于个人好奇而关注的竞选,在全国层面可能并不“重要”?
Tamara Keith NPR senior political correspondent Is there a race you're watching out of your own curiosity that may not "matter" at the national level?
在关乎众议院和参议院权力平衡的问题上,每一场竞选都至关重要。但我一直在开玩笑说,关注内华达州第二国会选区的曲折变化现在成了我的爱好。大约一个月前我曾做过一篇关于这场竞选的报道,自那以后,局势变得更加离奇。这是一个特朗普总统曾以14个百分点优势获胜的选区,在其存在40多年的时间里,从未由民主党人担任过代表。
Every race counts when it comes to the balance of power in the House and the Senate. But I have been joking that following the twists and turns in Nevada's 2nd Congressional District is now my hobby. I did a story about this race about a month ago and it has only gotten more wild since. It is a district that President Trump won by 14 points that hasn't been represented by a Democrat in its more than 40 years in existence.
但共和党人最终提名了一位得到特朗普支持、背负大量黑料且为了竞选国会议员才搬到该选区的人。在接受我采访时,他将自己的一次失误归咎于他的孙辈们。
But Republicans ended up nominating a Trump-backed candidate with a ton of baggage who only moved to the district to run for congress. In an interview with me, he blamed his grandkids for one of his missteps.
民主党人提名了一位曾当选内华达州小姐并转任州议员的候选人,她一直在开展一场非常扎实的竞选活动。即将卸任的共和党国会议员只要有机会,就会用生动的言辞痛骂共和党提名人,并宣布他转而投给了一名自由党人。所以,这简直是一团糟。这位共和党人仍然被看好会胜出,但我一直在密切关注,因为我只想知道这场闹剧将如何收场。
Democrats nominated a former Miss Nevada turned state legislator, who has been running a very solid campaign. The retiring Republican congressman is using colorful language to trash the GOP nominee every chance he gets and announced that he voted for a Libertarian instead. So, it's just totally messy. The Republican is still favored to win but I am watching closely because I just want to know how this drama ends.
有许多关于选区重划的投票公投案摆在选民面前。在马里兰州,选民将考虑是否[修改州宪法,从而最终]允许民主党人在该州增加一个席位。那个提案实际上看起来可能不会通过,这令人惊讶,因为这是一个民主党占优势的州。你可能会认为民主党人会希望给他们的民主党议员创造优势以设立一个新席位。
There are a lot of redistricting ballot measures before voters. In Maryland, voters are going to consider whether to [amend the state constitution which would ultimately] allow Democrats to add one more seat there. That one actually looks like it might not pass, which is surprising because this is a Democratic state. You'd think Democrats want to give their Democratic lawmakers an edge to create a new seat.
科罗拉多州的选民正在审议一项投票公投案,该提案基本上会使该州议会更难在十年中期进行选区重划,而许多其他州都曾这样做过。接着在密苏里州,他们将权衡另一个问题,即是否允许进行国会选区重划,这将有助于共和党人在该州翻转一个席位。
Coloradans are considering a ballot measure that would basically make it harder for their legislature to mid-decade redistrict, which a lot of other states did. And then in Missouri, they're going to be weighing another question about whether to allow congressional redistricting that would help Republicans flip a seat there.
然后是阿拉斯加州。每次选举周期,他们都会反复讨论他们实行的这种初选制度和排序选择投票。这个议题将再次摆在他们面前。结果总是极其微弱的险胜。竞争总是非常激烈。但选民们一直支持他们前四名的无党派初选制度和排序选择投票。——阿什利·洛佩兹我正在密切关注密歇根州和得克萨斯州等地,以及它们向我们透露的关于参议院的信息。
Then there's Alaska. Every cycle they go back and forth about this primary system that they have and ranked choice voting. It is going before them again. It's always a squeaker. It's always really close. But voters have stood by their top four primary nonpartisan primary system and their ranked choice voting. - Ashley Lopez I'm paying very close attention to places like Michigan and Texas and what they tell us about the Senate.
有几个非常有趣的众议院竞选我认为会向我们透露一些信息,特别是在南佛罗里达州和南得克萨斯州,以及拉丁裔群体及其在这场选举中的投票动向,因为他们在现阶段是非常关键的摇摆群体。全国各地还有几场州长竞选和选民公投提案。
There's a couple of really interesting House races that I think are going to tell us something, especially in South Florida and South Texas with Latinos and how they move in this election, because they're quite the swing group at this point. There are a couple of governors' races and ballot initiatives across the country.
在加利福尼亚州,我非常想看看这项富人税选民公投提案表现如何。各方投入了大量资金,数千万美元被花在这上面,而且这将非常引人注目,看看像加州这样一个在许多这类实验中往往走在前列的地方,它最终是否会获得通过。
In California, I'm really interested to see how this wealth tax ballot initiative does. There's been a ton of money, tens of millions of dollars spent on that, and it's going to be interesting to see if in a place like California that do tend to be the ones out front on a lot of these kinds of experiments, if it winds up passing or not.
我也对内华达州州长竞选之类的事情很好奇。内华达州一直是一个非常有趣的地方,因为这里的人们有着强烈的独立特行倾向。这里有两位候选人:2022年当选的共和党州长乔·隆巴多,他将对阵该州总检察长亚伦·福特。各方一直在谈论犯罪、特朗普以及高失业率。但随后你会深入了解他们的一些背景。福特不得不谈到他作为大学生时曾做出过一些糟糕的决定,包括惹上法律麻烦。
I'm also curious about something like the Nevada governor's race. And Nevada is always a really interesting place because people have a real independent streak. You've got two candidates here in Gov. Joe Lombardo, the Republican who was elected in 2022, and he's going against the state's attorney general, Aaron Ford. There's been all this talk about crime and about Trump and the high unemployment rate. But then you dig into some of their backgrounds. Ford has had to talk about how, as a college kid, he made some bad decisions, including running into trouble with the law.
我认为那里的选举结果会非常有趣,它将考验选民是在十年前左右某人身上发生的黑历史与全国政治气候之间作何选择。
I think the outcome there is going to be really interesting to see, asking voters whether they're going to take the dirt of what happened with somebody a decade or so ago versus the national political climate.
如果民主党在期中选举中拿下国会参众两院中的一个或两个,行政分支将受到怎样的影响?
How is the executive branch going to be affected if Democrats take one or both houses of Congress in the midterms?
中期选举往往是对白宫执政党的一种制衡。这种情况发生的方式,首先也是最主要的是,当华盛顿出现权力分立时,立法工作就会陷入停滞,除非达成妥协;而由于只有大约百分之十的国会选区具有竞争力,双方并没有太多动力去求同存异。
Midterms tend to be a check on the party that holds the White House. The way that happens, first and foremost, is when there's split power in Washington, legislation comes to a standstill unless there's compromise and with only about 10% of congressional districts being competitive, there isn't much incentive to meet in the middle.
一些得到两党支持的议题,比如对人工智能的护栏,可能会看到进展。但总统并不赞成对人工智能进行限制。民主党掌控众议院或参议院的最大影响将是对现政府的调查和监督。对民主党来说,在弹劾问题上走得有多远(如果他们走到这一步的话),在政治上可能会很棘手。共和党人在90年代末对前总统克林顿的弹劾调查曾付出过政治代价。
Some issues that have bipartisan support, like guardrails for artificial intelligence, could see progress. But the president is not in favor of restrictions on AI. The biggest effect of a Democratic House or Senate will be investigations and oversight of the current administration. One thing that could be politically tricky for Democrats is how far they go with impeachments, if they go there. Republicans paid the political price for their impeachment investigations of former President Clinton in the late 90s.
自二战以来,总统所在党派在中期选举中增加席位的情况只发生过两次——一次是在2002年“9·11”事件之后,另一次是之前的1998年中期选举。
Only twice since World War II has the president's party picked up seats in a midterm — once in 2002 after 9/11 and the preceding midterm in 1998.
政治辩论已经消亡了吗?如果没有,当它们举行时,是否注定会像近年来那样,以牺牲阐述政策为代价而变得愈发具有分裂性?
Are political debates dead? And if not, when they are held, are they doomed to be ever more divisive at the expense of platforming policies as they have been in recent years?
在中期选举中,现任官员往往不愿走上辩论台,因为他们不想给挑战者提供氧气并提高其知名度。关于辩论,有时人们觉得从中收获不多,因为政客们是口号机器。记者和采访者的工作就是试图让他们摆脱这些口号,并施压其弱点,以便选民能更清楚地了解这些候选人想要做什么以及他们为什么要这么做。
In midterms, you have incumbents who are reluctant to get on a debate stage because they don't want to give a challenger oxygen and raise their profiles. The thing about debates is that sometimes people don't feel like they get a lot out of them, because politicians are talking-point machines. The job of journalists and interviewers is to try and get them off of those and to press on vulnerabilities so voters get a clearer understanding of what those candidates want to do and why they want to do it.
如果做得好的话,这对选民来说真的是一项服务,考虑到除此之外选民从政治人物那里看到或听到的一切都只是预先包装好的竞选广告、演讲或精心挑选的社交媒体片段。在辩论中就他们的政策向他们施压是民主过程的重要组成部分,对于需要提高知名度的人来说也是一个巨大的平台,所以,不,我不认为辩论已经消亡。
That's a real service to voters when done well, considering the only things voters see or hear from politicians otherwise is pre-packaged campaign ads, speeches or curated social media clips. Pressing them on their policies in a debate is an important part of the Democratic process, and a big platform for people who need to increase their name identification, so, no, I don't think debates are dead.
事实上,我认为随着即将来临的这次总统选举中可能会出现创纪录数量的候选人,你们将会看到大量的辩论。拭目以待吧。——今年中期选举中,你在关注哪些内容作为2028年总统选举的潜在指标?
In fact, I think with what could be a record number of candidates in this upcoming presidential election, you're gonna see a lot of debates. Just wait. –What from this year's midterms are you watching as potential indicators for the presidential election in 2028?
乔恩·奥索夫在佐治亚州的领先优势。哈哈。尽管奥索夫予以否认,但他已经成为潜在总统候选人中的一匹黑马。他们在参选之前总是否认自己要参选。有少数几位2028年民主党潜在候选人是州长,他们在其连任极受看好的州执政,比如伊利诺伊州的J·B·普利茨克、宾夕法尼亚州的乔什·夏皮罗、马里兰州的韦斯·摩尔。
Jon Ossoff's margin in Georgia. LOL. Ossoff has emerged as a dark-horse potential presidential candidate, despite his denials. They always deny they're running until they do. There are a handful of potential 2028 Democratic candidates who are governors running states where they are heavily favored to win reelection, people like J.B. Pritzker in Illinois, Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Wes Moore in Maryland.
他们在选举之夜会说些什么来提供关于他们下一步行动的任何线索。或者他们会只是说他们对自己治理各州的政绩感到多么自豪,顺便说一句,这可能就是针对……2028年的讯息暗示。
What do they say on Election Night to give any clues about what they do next. Or will they simply say how proud they are of their records running their states, which, by the way, can be hints of messages for… 2028.
从与民主社会主义或该党极进步派别有关联的民主党人,在选举之夜的表现与各地温和派的表现相比中,将有很多东西可学。这可能为2028年民主党初选中的议题辩论奠定基础。此外,后特朗普时代的共和党人将如何参选?在中期选举之后的几天和几周里,是否有人开始拉开距离,试图规划出不同的方向,同时又小心翼翼地争取让MAGA阵营继续支持?
There will be lots to learn from how Democrats affiliated with democratic socialism or the very progressive wing of the party perform on election night compared to moderates in various places. That could set the stage for the issue debates in the 2028 Democratic primary. Also, how do Republicans run post-Trump? Do any start to distance themselves in the days and weeks following the midterms, trying to lay out a different direction, while walking the line to keep MAGA on board?
你无法真正根据各州在期中选举中的表现去推断它们在2028年是否会具有竞争力。这些选民群体与投票率高得多的总统选举相比有很大不同。参议院的优势差距对于2028年将很有意义,这也关乎它对下一任总统建立执政多数的可能性意味着什么。
You can't really read into how states go in midterms to say whether they're going to be competitive in 2028. These are just very different electorates than much-higher turnout presidential elections. The margin for the Senate will be interesting for 2028 and what it means for the potential of a governing majority for the next president.
感谢考特尼(Courtney)、纳撒尼尔(Nathaneal)、查德(Chad)、埃林(Erin)、雷纳塔(Renata)和泰森(Tyson)提出的问题。2026年期中选举
Thank you to Courtney, Nathaneal, Chad, Erin, Renata and Tyson for the questions. 2026 midterms