众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（共和党-路易斯安那州）在距离2026年中期选举仅剩一周之际，对本党前景表示信心，尽管民调显示共和党处于艰难境地。约翰逊周一在接受福克斯新闻主播劳拉·英格拉姆采访时表示，他认为显示民主党大幅领先的民调低估了共和党。“我认为这一次民调的偏差甚至更大，因为越来越多的共和党人不愿参与这些调查，”约翰逊说。
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is professing confidence in his party’s position with just one week to go until the 2026 midterms, despite polling showing Republicans are in a tough spot. Johnson told Fox News’s Laura Ingraham on Monday that he believes polls showing big leads for Democrats are underestimating Republicans. “I think [polls are] even further off this time because more and more Republicans are unwilling to participate in these surveys,” Johnson said.
“他们不想把个人信息告诉电话那头的人。这被称为党派性无应答偏差。”党派性无应答偏差在过去的选举中一直困扰民调行业，最严重的是2020年和2016年，当时民调在关键摇摆州低估了特朗普总统的支持率。但那些是总统大选，投票率高且特朗普在选票上。在中期选举中，民调的准确性显著更高。政治数据分析师内特·西尔弗的一项分析试图衡量平均民调偏差，他取了竞选最后三周所有针对众议院、参议院和州长选举的民调平均值，并与最终结果进行比较。
“They don’t want to give their information to someone on the phone. They’re calling it the partisan nonresponse bias.”Partisan nonresponse bias has plagued the polling industry in past elections, most egregiously in 2020 and 2016, when polls underestimated President Trump in key battleground states. But those were presidential elections, with high turnout and Trump on the ballot. In midterm elections, polls have been significantly more accurate. An analysis from political data analyst Nate Silver sought to measure the average polling miss and took an average of all polls conducted in the final three weeks of a campaign for House, Senate and governor compared with the end result.
他发现，在最近两次中期选举——2018年和2022年——中，民调并未低估共和党。2018年平均民调误差为0个百分点，2022年民调低估民主党0.3个百分点。尽管面临政治逆风，即高油价和特朗普创纪录的低支持率，约翰逊对共和党的机会依然看好。本月早些时候，他告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻部，他打算继续担任众议院议长，因为他认为共和党不会失利，称那是“极不可能发生的情景”。
He found that in the two most recent midterms, 2018 and 2022, polls did not underestimate Republicans. In 2018, the average polling error was 0 points, and in 2022, polls underestimated Democrats by 0.3 points. Despite political headwinds, namely high gas prices and Trump’s record-low approval ratings, Johnson has remained bullish on the GOP’s chances. Earlier this month, he told CBS News that he intends to remain Speaker of the House because he did not think Republicans would lose, calling that an “unlikely scenario.”
“我不认为那会发生，所以我根本不花时间去想这事，”约翰逊谈到本党失去众议院控制权时说。但大多数政治观察家已将众议院视为共和党某种程度上注定失利的战场。
“I don’t think it’s going to happen, so I don’t spend any time thinking about it,” Johnson said of his party losing control of the House. But most political observers already consider the House something of a lost cause for the GOP.
无党派选举预测机构Decision Desk HQ是《国会山报》的合作伙伴，该机构认为民主党有80%的几率翻转该院，而他们只需再赢得三个席位即可实现这一目标。追踪共和党在众议院竞选中的资金投放情况，会发现与约翰逊的乐观表态截然不同。近几周，共和党已从他们为保住多数党地位而必须守住的几个关键选区竞争中撤出，其中包括新泽西州第七国会选区和艾奥瓦州第一国会选区——这两个选区特朗普都曾在2024年拿下。
Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, gives Democrats an 80 percent chance of flipping the chamber, something they only need to pick up three seats to accomplish. Tracking where the GOP is spending its money in the House tells a different story compared with Johnson's optimism. In recent weeks, Republicans have pulled out of key races they need to defend to keep their majority, including New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District and Iowa’s 1st Congressional District — both of which Trump carried in 2024.