在美国这个汽车成瘾的社会里，汽车保险杠上的贴纸在衡量民意方面几乎和民意调查一样有用。目前这批贴纸对唐纳德·特朗普来说可不是什么好消息。
In America’s car-obsessed society, bumper stickers can be almost as useful for gauging public opinion as the polls. The current batch is not good news for Donald Trump.
其中最受欢迎的一张贴纸上印着美国总统的大幅照片，配文是“我把这些价格推高了”（IRAN THESE PRICES UP，注：此处玩了伊朗的英文谐音）。另一张贴在加油机上的贴纸则写着：“这次物价上涨由特朗普膨胀（TRUMPFLATION）倾情赞助”。
One of the most popular ones shows a big picture of the US president with the caption “IRAN THESE PRICES UP”. Another, seen on fuel pumps, reads “this price increase brought to you by TRUMPFLATION”.
根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，全美每加仑汽油的平均价格在4.20美元左右徘徊——高于2025年的3美元。特朗普最近在佐治亚州发表讲话时淡化了这场危机。他说：“我们的国家一直在变得越来越强大。那些油价会降下来的。”
The average price of a gallon of petrol across the US is hovering at about $4.20, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA) – up from $3 in 2025. Speaking in Georgia recently, Mr Trump played down the crisis. “Our country is getting stronger and stronger all the time. And those pump prices are going to come down,” he said.
但《每日电讯报》的分析发现，这位美国总统的支持率距离其有史以来最低水平——事实上也是50年来任何一位总统的最低支持率——可能只差一个多美元。
But The Telegraph’s analysis has found that the US president could be a little over a buck away from his lowest-ever approval rating – and, in fact, the lowest approval rating of any president in 50 years.
给他们点颜色看看：嘲讽唐纳德·特朗普的贴纸出现在美国加油机上。《每日电讯报》分析的数据显示，加油时每多花一美元，通常会导致美国总统的净支持率下降10个百分点。
Stick it to them: Stickers mocking Donald Trump appear on US petrol pumps Each extra dollar spent at the pump typically leads to a 10-point fall in net approval for a US president, data analysed by The Telegraph shows.
这位美国总统正因不断上涨的油价面临持续的审查。高油价对总统来说不是什么好消息，这并不是什么新鲜观点。
The US president is facing continued scrutiny over rising fuel prices It is not a new idea that high fuel costs are bad news for presidents.
可以说，正是1979年石油危机期间飙升的汽油价格让吉米·卡特输掉了1980年的总统大选，而乔·拜登的支持率则在2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以及随之而来的能源危机之后跌至谷底。
It was soaring gas prices during the 1979 oil crisis that arguably cost Jimmy Carter the 1980 presidential election, and Joe Biden’s approval ratings hit their lowest point following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and subsequent energy crunch.
曾在里根政府担任副政治总监的杰夫·洛德说：“这产生了巨大的影响。美国人去杂货店或去加油站，他们付出了惨重的代价……在选举来临时，这是要付出代价的。”
“It makes a big difference. Americans go to the grocery store or go to the gas station and they’re paying through the nose… that takes a toll when it comes to elections,” Jeff Lord, who worked as an associate political director in the Reagan administration, said.
随着这位美国总统在10月份的净支持率平均约为-30，仅仅1.20美元就可能将他的支持率暴跌至20世纪70年代以来任何一位总统的最低水平，这很可能预示着他的政党将在11月3日的中期选举中遭遇惨败。
With the US president’s net approval averaging roughly -30 in October, just $1.20 could plunge his approval ratings to the lowest of any president since the 1970s, probably spelling defeat for his party come the midterms on Nov 3.
近代以来的最低支持率是-42，由乔治·W·布什在2008年10月金融危机最严重的时候创下。
The lowest rating of recent times was -42, set by George W Bush in October 2008, at the height of the financial crisis.
今年3月，美国和以色列袭击伊朗政权后油价飙升，导致通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油供应中断了数月。
Oil prices spiked in March after the US and Israel attacked the Iranian regime, resulting in months of disruption to supplies flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
美国无铅燃料每加仑5美元的历史最高纪录是在2022年6月创下的。目前的油价距离这一高点还不到一美元。
The US record high for unleaded fuel of $5 a gallon was set in June 2022. Prices are now less than a dollar from this high.
随着中期选举的临近——外界普遍预计共和党将失去众议院和参议院——特朗普一再承诺为司机提供纾困。
With the midterms fast approaching – and the Republicans tipped to lose the House and Senate – Mr Trump has repeatedly promised relief for drivers.
本月早些时候，他不顾乌克兰和欧洲盟友的惊愕，顶住制裁进口了数千桶俄罗斯柴油。此后有消息称，双方正在讨论进一步的交易。
Earlier this month, to the dismay of Ukraine and European allies, he defied sanctions to import thousands of barrels of Russian diesel. It has since emerged that further deals are being discussed.
但油价依然高企，公众对这位美国总统的看法也没有出现好转的迹象。益普索于10月22日至26日进行的最新美国成年人民调显示，66%的人表示不满意，仅有32%的人表示满意。
But gas prices remain high, and public opinion of the US president shows little sign of turning. The latest poll of US adults, from Ipsos, conducted between Oct 22 and 26, found 66 per cent disapproved, with just 32 per cent approving.
过去五十年的数据表明，一个人每多花一分钟的工作时间来购买一加仑无铅汽油，总统的净支持率就会下降约五个百分点。
Data from the last five decades reveal that for every additional minute a person has to work to afford a gallon of unleaded petrol, the president’s net approval rating falls by about five percentage points.
按今天的工资计算，这相当于加仑汽油每多花一美元，支持率就会下降约10个百分点。这些数据已经根据失业率和总统任期长度的影响进行了调整。
That equates to a fall of around 10 points for every extra dollar a gallon costs at today’s wages. The data have been adjusted for unemployment and length of presidency effects.
这种趋势自2001年以来尤为显著，且主要由小布什的第二任期推动——当时他的支持率因伊拉克战争余波、卡特里娜飓风和金融崩溃而遭到沉重打击。
This trend has been especially prominent since 2001, and is most strongly driven by Mr Bush’s second term – when his approval ratings were hammered by the Iraq fallout, Hurricane Katrina and the financial crash.
但这种联系仍然是一种相关性，而非因果关系。油价飙升往往与白宫遇到的其他坏消息同时出现。
But the link remains one of correlation, not causation. Gas price surges have often coincided with other bad news for the White House.
反常的是，特朗普可能受到了“已经计入价格的坏消息”数量的保护。
Mr Trump may be protected, perversely, by how much bad news has already been priced in.
在他实施“解放日”关税后引发的股市暴跌、围绕爱泼斯坦文件的强烈反弹，以及对他冷酷无情的打击移民行动的视觉形象的负面反应，早在美国于2月28日对德黑兰发动空袭之前，就已经拉低了他的支持率。许多选民在一段时间前就已经对这位总统做出了决定。
The stock market rout following his “Liberation Day” tariffs, the backlash over the Epstein files and a negative reaction to the optics of his ruthless immigration crackdown all dragged down his ratings long before the US launched strikes on Tehran on Feb 28. Many voters will have made up their mind about the president some time ago.