美国经济正在加速，从人工智能热潮和强劲的消费支出中汲取足够动力，冲破战争、市场波动和贸易中断。事实上，没有哪个主要发达经济体像美国这样增长。
The U.S. economy is accelerating, gathering enough momentum from the artificial intelligence boom and robust consumer spending to crash through wars, volatile markets and trade disruptions. Indeed, no major advanced economy has been growing like the U.S.
这轮扩张提振了经济的某些领域，同时也拖累了其他领域。与此同时，更高的借贷成本与利润和财富同步增长。工资有所上涨，但通胀吞噬了大部分涨幅。
The expansion has boosted certain segments of the economy, while weighing on others. At the same time, higher borrowing costs have grown alongside profits and wealth. Wages have risen, though inflation has eaten most of the gains.
“经济很强劲，但也极度集中，”EY-Parthenon经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示。
“The economy is robust, but it is also extremely concentrated,” said EY-Parthenon economist Gregory Daco.
这种不寻常的经济混合物很可能影响美国政治的走向。选民周二前往投票站，他们是稳定就业市场和更高薪水的受益者，但对生活成本和特朗普总统处理经济的方式感到沮丧。
The unusual economic brew is likely to shape the outcome of U.S. politics. Voters head to the polls on Tuesday as beneficiaries of a stable job market and fatter salaries, but frustrated with the cost of living and President Trump’s handling of the economy.
商务部上周发布的国内生产总值报告描绘了一幅强劲的图景。第三季度经济以3.4%的年化增长率增长，这是一年来的最快增速。一项备受关注的私人需求指标增长更快——4.9%——创下自2021年以来的最佳表现，当时经济正从疫情中反弹。
Last week’s gross domestic product report from the Commerce Department painted a picture of strength. The economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, its fastest pace in a year. A closely watched measure of private demand grew even faster—4.9%—putting in its best performance since 2021, when the economy was rebounding from the pandemic.
消费支出是第三季度GDP增长的最大贡献者。连续第二个季度，消费支出以3.8%的年化增长率增长（经通胀调整）。推动这一增长的因素之一：家庭财富大幅增加，由人工智能热潮驱动。尽管过去一个月投资者对人工智能风险感到担忧，导致市场出现疲软，但标普500指数周五收盘较去年底上涨了11%。
Consumer spending was the largest contributor to third-quarter GDP growth. For the second quarter in a row it increased at a 3.8% annual rate, adjusted for inflation. Helping to fuel that rise: a substantial increase in household wealth, driven by the artificial intelligence boom. Despite weakness over the past month as investors fret over AI risks, the S&P 500 on Friday closed up 11% from the end of last year.
企业支出大幅增加。私人非住宅投资——资本支出的衡量指标——以经通胀调整的12.7%年化增长率增长。人工智能相关领域表现突出。计算设备支出以67%的速度增长，而数据中心建设支出以127%的速度增长。
Spending by businesses took off. Private, nonresidential investment—a measure of capital spending—increased at an inflation-adjusted 12.7% annual rate. AI-related areas were standouts. Spending on computing equipment grew at a 67% rate, while spending on data center construction rose at a 127% rate.
不过，AI已挤占其他领域。住房建设陷入停滞，受高昂借贷、材料和劳动力成本打击，开发商与数据中心建设争夺资源。
AI, however, has crowded out other segments. Housing construction has flatlined, hit by high borrowing, materials and labor costs as developers compete with the data center build-out.
消费和资本支出的增长足以抵消不断扩大的贸易逆差（大量投入AI的设备依赖进口）以及住房市场持续的疲软。
Consumer and capital spending gains were more than enough to offset a widening trade deficit (much of the equipment going into AI is imported) and persistent weakness in the housing market.
《华尔街日报》上月进行的一项民调显示，62%的受访者将经济评价为不太好或很差，而37%的人评价为好或非常好。该民调还显示，选民更信任民主党而非共和党处理经济问题，且51%的登记选民预计将投票支持民主党，44%支持共和党。
In a Wall Street Journal poll conducted last month, 62% of respondents rated the economy as not so good or poor, versus 37% who rated it good or excellent. In addition to showing voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on handling the economy, the poll indicated that 51% of registered voters expect to pull the lever for Democrats, versus 44% for the GOP.
民主党的表面优势与整体经济增长（即使考虑通胀因素）难以相符。
Democrats’ apparent advantage can be hard to square with overall economic growth, even after taking inflation into account.
耶鲁大学经济学家雷·费尔（Ray Fair）开发的一个模型利用GDP、通胀指标和历史投票模式来预测选举结果。输入最新数据后，该模型显示，民主党在众议院选举中应获得约50.6%的两党选票份额。考虑到共和党的选区划分优势，这可能不足以夺取该议院控制权。
A model developed by Yale University economist Ray Fair uses GDP, a measure of inflation and historical voting patterns to predict electoral outcomes. Plugging in the latest data, it indicates Democrats should garner about 50.6% of the two-party vote share in House of Representatives contests. Considering Republicans’ districting advantage, that might not be enough to take the chamber.
然而，普遍预计民主党将赢得众议院，民调显示他们在参议院赢得多数席位的可能性更大。当然，民调也可能出错，共和党可能超出预期。即便如此，对经济的不满似乎广泛存在。
Yet Democrats are widely expected to win the House, with polls suggesting they are more likely than not to win a majority in the Senate. The polls could, of course, be wrong, and Republicans could outperform expectations. Even so, discontent over the economy appears widespread.
巴克莱银行经济学家乔纳森·米勒（Jonathan Millar）表示，经济状况良好，尽管可能不如第三季度GDP数据所暗示的那样强劲。
Barclays economist Jonathan Millar said the economy is in good shape, though maybe not quite as robust as the third-quarter GDP figures suggest.
例如，部分消费支出增长可能归因于网上夏季促销和世界杯。商务部的另一组数据显示，经通胀调整后的消费支出在9月环比持平，表明该领域的动能已放缓。即使股价飙升，美国人维持近期消费步伐的能力也可能受到限制。
Some of the gain in consumer spending, for example, might have been due to online summer sales and the World Cup. Separate Commerce Department figures showed that inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat in September from a month earlier, suggesting momentum there has slowed. Even with the surge in stock prices, Americans’ ability to keep spending at their recent pace could be limited.
截至9月止的12个月内，扣除通胀因素后的实际支出增长了2.5%。但实际税后个人收入仅增长了1%。结果，储蓄率——即支出后剩余收入的占比——从5.1%下降至3.8%。这一比例很少如此之低。
Over the 12 months ended in September, inflation-adjusted, or real, spending increased by 2.5%. But real, after-tax personal income grew 1%. As a result, the saving rate—the share of income left over after spending—dropped from 5.1% to 3.8%. It has rarely been so low.
收入增长放缓可能是人们对经济评价不高的原因之一——扣除通胀后，他们难以跟上步伐。
The slower pace of income growth could be one of the reasons people are giving the economy low marks—after inflation, they are having a hard time keeping up.
“是的，潮水在上涨，但这次并非所有船只都被抬高，”RSM经济学家乔·布鲁埃卢斯（Joe Brusuelas）表示。
“Yes, the tide is rising, but it’s not lifting all boats this time,” said Joe Brusuelas, economist at RSM.
这对于主要依靠工资收入的人群尤其如此，与来自企业收入和退休金等来源的人群不同。根据劳工部数据，自特朗普2025年1月就职以来，平均时薪上涨了5.5%。但在同期，消费者价格上涨了5.4%，几乎所有的工资增长都被通胀吞噬。通胀的冲击可能比一年前价格上涨3.7%所暗示的更为严重。
This is particularly true of people who get most of their income from their paychecks, as opposed to sources like business income and retirement benefits. Since Trump came into office in January 2025, average hourly earnings have risen 5.5%, according to the Labor Department. But with consumer prices up 5.4% over the same period, nearly all of that wage gain has been eaten up by inflation. Inflation could also be packing a harder punch than even the 3.7% increase in prices from a year ago suggests.
部分原因在于，许多人并不关注同比价格变化，而是将当前支付的价格与记忆中过去支付的价格进行比较。此外，许多选民将近期价格上涨归咎于特朗普采取的行动，这对共和党人也不利。《华尔街日报》的民调显示，四分之一的受访者认为伊朗战争是导致高物价的最主要因素，而另四分之一的人则认为是特朗普的关税。
That is in part because rather than focusing on year-over-year change in prices, many people are comparing prices they are paying now to what they recall paying in the past. Nor does it help Republicans that many voters are blaming recent price increases on actions Trump has taken. In The Wall Street Journal poll, one quarter of respondents said that they thought the Iran war was the most important contributor to high prices, while another quarter said Trump’s tariffs.
此外，虽然利率并未直接体现在衡量通胀的数据中，但人们仍将其视为成本。30年期抵押贷款平均利率从一年前的6.17%上升至7.24%，使许多潜在购房者买房更加困难。
Moreover, while interest rates aren’t directly reflected in measured inflation, people nonetheless see them as costs. The increase in the average rate on a 30-year mortgage to 7.24% from 6.17% a year ago has made affording a home even more challenging for many would-be owners.
美国人对劳动力市场的悲观看法似乎也与 4.2% 的低失业率不符。纽约联储 9 月的一项调查发现，受访者认为一年后失业率上升的概率为 44%。在该调查 13 年的历史中，只有疫情爆发后的一段短暂时期，人们给出的概率明显高于此。
Americans’ downbeat view of the labor market also seems out of step with a low, 4.2% unemployment rate. A September New York Fed survey found that people put a 44% chance that unemployment will be higher a year from now. In the 13 years of the survey’s history, the only time people put the probability substantially higher was during a brief period after the pandemic hit.
自 2025 年 1 月特朗普重返白宫以来，就业增长已显著放缓。美国月均仅新增约 3.9 万个就业岗位。但经济学家普遍将其归因于人口老龄化和打击移民政策减少了可用劳动力供给这两大因素的叠加效应。裁员率很低，初请失业金人数降至历史最低水平之一。
Employment growth has slowed markedly since January 2025, when Trump came back into office. The country has added an average of only about 39,000 jobs a month. But economists generally ascribe that to the combined effects of an aging population and an immigration crackdown that has reduced the supply of available workers. Layoffs are low, with new claims for unemployment benefits falling to some of the lowest levels in history.
然而，招聘步伐也很慢——雇主虽然不大量裁员，但也不大量招募新员工。这让试图进入就业市场的人（如应届毕业生）面临困难。也可能导致许多在职人员实际上被困在现有岗位上，无法晋升。
The pace of hiring is also low, however—while employers aren’t firing many workers, they also aren’t taking many new workers on. That has made it difficult for people trying to break into the job market, such as new graduates. It could also be making many people with jobs effectively stuck in the positions they have, and unable to advance.
人工智能可能正在给就业市场留下印记。虽然技术究竟取代了多少工作尚不清楚，但“人们正感到担忧”，摩根大通经济学家迈克尔·费罗利表示。
AI could be leaving a mark on the job market. While it is unclear how much work is getting displaced by technology, “people are getting worried,” said JPMorgan Chase economist Michael Feroli.
人工智能支出的继续繁荣虽然规模可观，但似乎范围狭窄。这意味着，目前它并没有像更多企业参与其中那样，直接惠及那么多美国人。
The boom in AI spending, while substantial, also seems narrow. That means that it is for now not directly helping as many Americans as would be the case if more businesses were taking part in it.
“少数行业表现极其出色，其他行业则尚可，”安永帕特农首席经济学家达科表示。
“A few sectors are doing exceptionally well, and others are OK,” said EY-Parthenon’s Daco.
例如，GDP 报告的细节显示，上季度非住宅建筑支出（涵盖工厂、商场、教堂、医院等一切设施）的增幅中，超过一半来自数据中心。设备资本支出增幅的三分之二来自计算机设备。
Details of the GDP report, for example, showed that over half of last quarter’s increase in spending on nonresidential structures—everything from factories to malls to churches to hospitals—came from data centers. Two-thirds of the increase in capital spending on equipment came from computer equipment.