2026年10月31日，总统唐纳德·特朗普在位于佛罗里达州棕榈滩的海湖庄园举行的万圣节派对上与媒体成员交谈。
President Donald Trump spoke to members of the media during a Halloween party at his Mar-a-Lago club on October 31, 2026 in Palm Beach, Florida.
安德鲁·哈尼克/盖蒂图片社北美分社 请在NPR应用程序上获取中期选举等最新资讯特朗普总统在2024年当选，很大程度上是因为选民授予他降低物价的使命。但这并未实现。相反，特朗普面临着创纪录的低支持率、创纪录的高强度反对声浪，选民们指责他导致物价在他第二次就职以来持续上涨。
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images North America Get the latest on the midterms & more in the NPR App President Trump was elected in 2024, in large measure, with a mandate to bring down prices. But that hasn't happened. Instead, Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, record-high intensity of opposition, and voters are blaming him for prices that have continued to rise since he took office this second time around.
大多数总统为经济承担的责备和获得的赞誉都多于他们应得的份额。但与伊朗的战争和特朗普的关税是直接导致商品和能源价格上涨的政策选择。
Most presidents get more blame and credit than they deserve for the economy. But the war with Iran and Trump's tariffs were choices that have directly led to increased prices on goods and energy.
经济日益呈现两极分化：富裕阶层日子过得不错，很大程度上是因为以人工智能公司为主导的股票投资组合不断增值；而普通美国人却开始反对人工智能数据中心，因通胀超过工资增长、劳动力市场平平、利率悄悄攀升而陷入挣扎。这些利率让买房买车变得更难，让数百万人感觉像是在水中踩水勉强维持。
The economy is increasingly bifurcated with the wealthy doing well, in large part, because of increasing stock portfolios dominated by AI companies, while regular Americans are turning against AI data centers, struggling because of inflation that is outpacing wages, a middling labor market and interest rates that are creeping higher. Those rates are making it harder to buy a home or a car, making millions of people feel like they're treading water.
最新的NPR/PBS News/Marist民调显示，多数派——44%——表示他们的财务状况基本保持不变，另有38%表示经济状况恶化。仅有15%表示从金钱角度看情况实际上有所好转。
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll showed a plurality — 44% — said their finances have mostly stayed the same and another 38% saying their economic situations have worsened. Only 15% said things have actually gotten better for them from a money standpoint.
加上选民不满政府强硬的移民执法手段、削减医疗补助等国内医疗项目开支、大幅削减法规和政府员工队伍，这正在激怒摇摆选民并点燃民主党支持者的热情。
Add to that the disapproval of the administration's hard-line immigration enforcement tactics, cuts to domestic spending on programs like Medicaid and other health care programs, and the slashing of regulations and the government workforce, and it's angering swing voters and firing up Democrats.
结果，总统所属政党很可能要付出代价。中期选举对总统所属政党向来就很艰难。
As a result, the president's party is likely to pay the price. Midterms are usually difficult for the president's party to begin with.
历史并不站在共和党这边。二战以来，总统所属政党在中期选举中赢得众议院席位的情况仅出现过两次。平均而言，总统所属政党在中期选举年会失去26个席位；而当总统支持率低于50%时——特朗普的支持率一直处于这一水平——其所属政党平均失去35个席位。即便支持率高于50%，该党仍会失去席位，但平均仅为15个，比总统不受欢迎时少20个。
History is not on Republicans' side this year Only twice since World War II has the president's party gained seats in the House in a midterm election. On average, the president's party loses 26 seats in midterm years, and it's worse when a president's approval rating is below 50%, as Trump's has been. When that's the case, the presidents' parties have lost an average of 35 seats. When they're above 50%, they still lose seats but only 15 on average, 20 seats better than when a president is unpopular.
总统所属政党在中期选举中失利，是特朗普本人在多次竞选活动中承认过的事实。
The fact that presidents' parties lose seats in midterms is something Trump himself has acknowledged multiple times at campaign events.
与此同时，民主党在特朗普这个任期内取得了政治上的成功。他们在特别选举中持续表现优于预期，而特别选举被视为中期选举表现的风向标；他们还在2025年的非大选年选举中大获全胜。从那时起，由于不得人心的伊朗战争导致汽油价格飙升，共和党的政治处境进一步恶化。
Meanwhile, Democrats have had political success in this Trump term. They have consistently overperformed in special elections, which are indicators of midterm prowess, and they cleaned up in the 2025 off-year elections. Since then, the political landscape has only gotten worse for Republicans because of the unpopular Iran war that has led to skyrocketing gas prices.
所有迹象都指向民主党本轮选举将获利。他们被看好将赢得众议院控制权，且距离赢得参议院控制权也已触手可及——这在本轮选举伊始还被视为渺茫的希望。
All of that points to Democratic gains this cycle. They are favored to win control of the House, and they are in striking distance of winning the Senate, something that had been seen as a longshot at the beginning of this cycle.
民主党面临潜在局限 虽然过去几个月政治版图无疑向更有利于民主党的方向移动，但其可能获得的席位增幅究竟有多大，目前尚不明朗。
Democrats have potential limitations While the landscape has undoubtedly moved more in Democrats' direction over the last several months, the extent of the likely potential gains is not clear.
一个主要原因是结构性的。参考《库克政治报告》的评级，今年被评为“倾向”或“胶着”的竞争性选区，比2018年民主党净增逾40个众议院席位时少了约30个。
A big reason for that is structural. When looking at the Cook Political Report's ratings, there are about 30 fewer competitive districts — ones rated as lean or toss up — this year than in 2018 when Democrats won a net gain of more than 40 seats in the House.
本轮中期选举中，十年一次的重新划分选区也在一定程度上帮助共和党巩固了优势。在全国范围内的选区划分争夺战中，特朗普明确推动共和党主导的州立法机构争取更多共和党席位，美国全国公共广播电台（NPR）的分析显示，共和党通过重新划分选区净增了约8个席位的优势。
Mid-decade redistricting has also helped to insulate Republicans this cycle, even if marginally. After all the redistricting fights across the country, with Trump explicitly pushing GOP-led state legislatures to get more Republican seats, an NPR analysis shows Republicans netted an estimated 8-seat advantage out of redistricting.
不过，如果得克萨斯州南部的拉美裔选民以特定方式投票，这些收益可能会减少。
Depending on how Latinos in South Texas, in particular, vote those gains might be lower.
尽管共和党面临强劲逆风，且共和党的观感不佳，但民主党的观感也不佳。民主党难以团结那些本应支持民主党、却感到躁动不安、对该党不满的基本盘选民。
While Republicans face significant headwinds and the GOP is not viewers favorably, the Democratic Party is also not viewed positively. Democrats have had trouble wrangling a base of voters who should be Democrats but are restive and unsatisfied by the party.
话虽如此，最新的NPR民调显示，自称“民主社会主义者”的选民在这次中期选举中参与度极高，且强烈不赞同特朗普的工作表现。
That said, the latest NPR poll showed that self-identified "democratic socialists" were very engaged in these midterms and hotly disapprove of the job Trump is doing.
俗话说，敌人的敌人就是朋友。这群选民可能会大量投票，以此制衡特朗普——44%的受访者表示他们的投票是反对特朗普，而21%表示是支持他。但在未来几个月，随着民主党总统初选的展开，左翼内部在理念和路线上可能会出现冲突。
As the old saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. This group of voters may vote in big numbers in this election as a check on Trump — 44% of poll respondents said their vote was a vote against Trump while 21% said it was a vote for him. But there's a likely clash of ideals and approach coming on the left over the next several months, as the Democratic presidential primaries.
切记，2028年大选几乎将在这些中期选举结束后立即拉开帷幕。这是一场开放式选举——特朗普时代、奥巴马-拜登时代、克林顿和布什家族时代结束后的首次大选。想要崭露头角、需要全国性声望提升的候选人倾向于越早宣布参选越好。想想看：一月、二月。
And make no mistake, the 2028 election begins almost immediately after these midterms. It's an open election — the first one post-Trump, post-Obama-Biden, post-Clintons and Bushes. Candidates who want to make a splash and need a national boost tend to announce earlier rather than later. Think: January, February.
重要的是要记住，结果尘埃落定前，一切都没有定数。很大程度上将取决于共和党的投票率。
It's important to remember nothing is a done deal until the results are in. A lot of this is going to come down to Republican turnout.
这就是为什么特朗普被派往红州，试图推动并恳请其基本盘出来投票。如果这些地方的共和党投票率不高，民主党在参议院原本可能仅获得一两个席位的提升，可能迅速变成六七个席位。
That's why Trump has been deployed to red states to try and push and plead with his base to get out and vote. Without a big GOP turnout in these places, a one- or two-seat pick up for Democrats in the Senate can quickly turn into six or seven.
做好迎接惊喜的准备。但如果民主党未能赢得众议院控制权，那将是最大的震惊，代表着本世纪以来未曾见过的民调误差。
Be ready for surprises. But if Democrats don't win the House, it would be the shocker of all shockers and represent a polling error like we haven't seen this century.
做好耐心等待的准备 虽然大多数州和选区的结果将在选举之夜人们就寝前揭晓，但有些不会。这些悬而未决的竞选可能发生在关键地区，考虑到微弱的优势，尤其是在参议院，哪个党派控制参议院可能要过几天，甚至几周才能知晓。
Prepare to be patient While most states and districts will be called by the time people go to bed on election night, some will not. Those lingering races may be in key places, and given the margins, particularly in the Senate, it's possible party control won't be known for days, if not weeks.
特朗普已经为声称选举舞弊铺平道路。这不足为奇。此前每次选举结果不如他意，他都以这样或那样的方式这么做过。2020年大选后，他关于舞弊的虚假指控导致了1月6日国会大厦遭围攻事件。
Trump is already laying the groundwork for claims of rigged elections. That's no surprise. He's done that after every election that hasn't gone his way previously in one way or another. After the 2020 election, his false claims of fraud led to the Jan. 6 siege at the Capitol.
最新的NPR民调发现，绝大多数跨党派选民压倒性地相信，他们所在的州将举行公平准确的选举，并且他们支持的候选人应该接受结果，无论结果如何。
The latest NPR poll found most people across parties overwhelmingly believe their states will run fair and accurate elections and that their preferred candidate should accept the outcome, no matter what it is.
但四分之一的共和党选民表示，他们支持的候选人很可能不应该接受结果。如果选势胶着、数周内无法定夺，这为潜在的混乱和错误信息留下了空间。
But a quarter of Republicans said their candidate likely shouldn't accept the results. That leaves room for potential chaos and misinformation if elections are close and not decided for weeks.
本周期特朗普明显拖累了共和党。无需相信民调也能知道这是事实。看看共和党候选人在做什么。他们在初选广告中提及特朗普的次数极高。现在，几乎完全不提了。
Trump has been a clear drag on the GOP this cycle. You don't have to believe polls to know it's the case. Look at what Republican candidates are doing. Their mentions in ads of Trump during the primaries were sky high. Now, they're nearly nonexistent.
共和党人私下会承认，特朗普是一把双刃剑——基本盘需要他，但摇摆选民却对他避之不及。
Republicans will admit privately that Trump is a double-edged sword — he's needed with the base, but toxic with swing voters.
过去十年来，特朗普的故事一直如此——受到国内一小部分狂热支持者的热爱，却被更大一部分人深恶痛绝。
And that's been the story of Trump for the past decade — beloved by an ardent slice of the country and loathed by an even bigger one.
但今年，随着民众承受经济压力，且美国持续卷入他曾承诺让国家避免的持续战争之中，民调在今年相当长一段时间内一致发现，许多2024年倒向他阵营的选民对他的支持已大幅下跌。
But this year, with the economic strain on people and the U.S.'s continued involvement in the kind of ongoing war he promised to keep the country out of, polls have found consistently over a long period of time this year that his support with many of those who crossed over to vote for him in 2024 has cratered.
这几乎无法为特朗普及其政党在周二及之后的选举中取得成功奠定基础——尽管届时将会出现指控舞弊的说法，但这些说法分量不足。但这并不意味着任何一方将获得压倒性多数，妥协将是推动重大事项的必要条件。2026年中期选举分析
That hardly sets up Trump and his party for success Tuesday and beyond — despite what will be claims of nefariousness that will hold little weight. But that doesn't mean either party will have massive majorities, and compromise will be necessary to get big things done. 2026 midterms analysis