
自托尼·布莱尔以来,工党从未有过像安迪·伯纳姆这样充满政治浪漫主义色彩的领袖。然而,在英国这位魅力十足、自信满满的新首相身后,有两位低调的同事提供着必要的现实检验,即便他们绝不会在公开场合对老板翻白眼。
Not since Tony Blair has Labour had a leader who’s as much of a political romantic as Andy Burnham. And yet behind the UK’s charismatic and confident new prime minister are two quiet colleagues who provide the necessary reality check, even if they’d never dream of eye-rolling the boss in public.
财政大臣约翰·希利和工作与养老金大臣帕特·麦克法登是部落化且务实的政党忠诚者。当首相轻描淡写地谈论推翻“50年的新自由主义”,或沉醉于关于重返欧盟的天马行空的构思时,你最多可能只会得到一个侧目。伯纳姆确实相信国家应该以不同的方式运作,并据此搭起了他的政治帐篷。
Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey and Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden are tribal and pragmatic party loyalists. And the most you might get is a sideways look when the PM talks airily about rolling back “50 years of neoliberalism” or indulges in blue-sky thinking about rejoining the European Union. Burnham does believe the state should work differently and has pitched his political tent accordingly.
但希利——他悄悄运作,击败其他候选人,夺得了这个备受瞩目的11号下街职位——以及麦克法登——一位来自基尔·斯塔默时代的罕见内阁幸存者——是新政府的共同支撑墙,是那些将决定政府成败的人物,而其他人则在谈论重塑资本主义的宏伟十年计划。尽管工党正在享受“伯纳姆反弹”的民调红利,但选民在税收和福利问题上正向右转,这两人深知这一点。
But Healey, who maneuvered stealthily to defeat other candidates for the prized No. 11 role, and McFadden, a rare cabinet survivor from the Keir Starmer years, are the joint supporting walls of the new administration — the figures who will determine its success while others speak of grand 10-year plans to remake capitalism. While Labour is enjoying a “Burnham bounce” in the polls, voters are heading to the right on tax and welfare, and this pair understand that.
希利和麦克法登曾近距离观察布莱尔如何重塑亲民领导力的艺术,并连续赢得三届大选,因此他们欣赏伯纳姆在社交媒体上的亲民魅力。如果对他笨拙舞步的旧视频被翻出来让一些人感到尴尬,他们直觉地知道,有数以百万计的“爸爸舞者”会去投票。这位首相大多按自己的意愿行事和说话,而他声称的真实性是他最有效的名片。
Having watched Blair at close quarters reinvent the art of relatable leadership and win three consecutive general elections, Healey and McFadden appreciate the good-vibes appeal of Burnham on social media. If resurfacing old footage of his clumsy moves on seems cringe-making to some, they intuit that there are millions of dad-dancers out there who vote. This PM largely does and says what he wants, and his claim to authenticity is his most effective calling card.
财政大臣眼中的表演性政治,是一饮而尽一品啤酒来庆祝他的首个预算,这是一种明显带有男性色彩的习俗,追溯到1970年代——正是伯纳姆表达怀念的那个年代。
The chancellor’s idea of performative politics was to celebrate his first budget by downing a pint of beer in one gulp, a markedly male custom that harks back to the 1970s, the decade for which Burnham evinces nostalgia.
相比之下,麦克法登一向严肃守纪。我曾在一次颁奖典礼上与他坐在一起,当时他的年轻同事韦斯·斯特里廷——现任国防大臣——以针对内阁的粗俗笑话逗得听众捧腹大笑,而麦克法登的面孔却始终如石板般毫无笑意。即便在威斯敏斯特的狂欢之中,信息纪律也得到了维持。任何政府都有一个“指定司机”式的人物——在工党,这个角色由就业与养老金大臣扮演。
By contrast, McFadden is reliably buttoned-up. I once sat next to him at an awards ceremony where his young colleague Wes Streeting, now Defence Secretary, had an audience in stitches with racy jokes at the cabinet’s expense. No suggestion of a smile crossed McFadden’s stony face. Message discipline was maintained even in the midst of a Westminster bacchanal. In any government, there is a designated-driver figure — in Labour, that is the work and pensions minister.
像布莱尔和比尔·克林顿一样,伯纳姆拥有“远见卓识”。他毫不避讳地谈论恢复欧盟公民来英自由流动、推行选举制度改革、颠覆撒切尔主义,并将权力从财政部交还给人民。
Like Blair and Bill Clinton, Burnham has the “vision thing.”He talks freely about restoring freedom of movement for EU citizens to come to Britain, delivering electoral reform, upending Thatcherism and giving power back to the people from the Treasury.
然而,真正要做大量工作以确定实际可能性的是希利。上周被问及与布鲁塞尔加强联系时,这位约克郡选区曾投票支持脱欧的财政大臣表示,他不指望英国在他有生之年重新加入欧盟,并承认自己66岁高龄,稍嫌年长。他知道还有许多悬而未决的问题需要先行解决。自由流动需要向英国公众推销,任何推翻2016年公投结果的举措都需要获得民主同意。此外还有关税问题,以及每年向布鲁塞尔缴纳的估计350亿英镑(约合470亿美元)预算供款。
Yet it’s Healey who’ll do much of the work on what is actually possible. When asked last week about closer ties with Brussels, the chancellor — whose Yorkshire constituency voted for Brexit — said he does not expect the UK to rejoin the EU in his lifetime, admitting that at 66 he is a tad old. He knows there are outstanding issues to settle first. Freedom of movement needs to be sold to the UK public, and democratic consent is needed for any reversal of the 2016 referendum. Then there’s tariffs and an estimated £35 billion ($47 billion) in annual budget contributions to Brussels.
首相的时机也很不幸。巴黎、柏林和法兰克福都遭遇了骚乱,民粹主义右翼在整个欧洲大陆势头正盛。尽管如此,伯纳姆的亲欧盟言论仍能吸引那些容易受影响的自由民主党和绿党选民。
The PM’s timing is unfortunate, too. Paris, Berlin and Frankfurt have been swept by riots, and the populist right is on the march across the continent. No matter, Burnham’s euro-friendly sentiments appeal to suggestible Liberal Democrat and Green voters.
像希利这样不张扬的团队球员,本来就不大可能因上周的预算案赢得大城市精英们的赞誉。有人希望伯纳姆把这份工作交给埃德·米利班德,这位北伦敦知识分子和环保布道者被“提拔”到了外交部。伯纳姆却选择了一位北方同乡,一位在布莱尔财相戈登·布朗手下学艺的谨慎操盘手。希利的首要职责,是在动荡时期让债券市场保持冷静。
A self-effacing team player like Healey was never likely to win plaudits for last week’s budget from metropolitan sophisticates. Some wanted Burnham to give the job to Ed Miliband, a North London intellectual and eco-evangelist kicked upstairs to the Foreign Office. Burnham instead plumped for a fellow northern Englishman, a cautious operator who learned his trade under Blair’s chancellor, Gordon Brown. Healey’s first duty is to keep the bond markets at bay in turbulent times.
银行家和对冲基金经理对他预算手笔的冷淡反应——“还不错”——正是他想听到的。任何一个失误都会让金融交易者的注意力从法国的瘫痪和债务堆积上转移开。仅仅维持这种局面就是一项艰巨的工作,尤其是当你看到财政部那套不太可能的财政框架,它要求在2029年大选前夕削减公共支出。
The tepid response to his budget handiwork from bankers and hedge funders — “not so bad” — was exactly what he wanted to hear. One misstep would have diverted the financial traders’ attention away from France’s paralysis and debt pile. Just keeping this up is a huge job, especially when you look at the Treasury’s improbable fiscal framework that demands public spending cuts in the run-up to a 2029 general election.
希利的命运在很大程度上不受他控制,他自己也清楚。如果特朗普总统在中期选举后重新对伊朗发动攻击,欧洲的能源价格和经济增长就全都不受控制了。财相那萎缩的财政缓冲——相对于2026-27财年预计1.4万亿英镑的政府支出,仅有145亿英镑——将会荡然无存。
Healey’s fate is largely outside his control, as well he knows. If President Donald Trump renews his assault on Iran after the midterms, all bets are off on energy prices and economic growth across Europe. The chancellor’s deflated fiscal cushion — £14.5 billion against projected government spending of £1.4 trillion in 2026–27 — would be vaporized.
那么,希利有增长战略吗?虽然他的首个预算案遵循了“首要不伤害”的希波克拉底原则,却既没有提出支出削减,也没有大刀阔斧砍掉法规。财相说,他想通过给选民一些小甜头,让他们“喘口气”。他也给了政府一个喘息的机会,以便在明年晚些时候对公共支出进行全面审查。
So does Healy have a growth strategy? Although his maiden budget observed the Hippocratic injunction to “first do no harm,” it failed to offer up spending cuts or to make a bonfire of regulations. The chancellor said he wanted to give the voters “breathing space” by throwing them a few sops. He also gave his government a pause for breath before a comprehensive review of public spending late next year.
公平地说,预算并非只有“稳扎稳打”。希利将政府将国防开支占国内生产总值比例提高到3%的承诺写入记录,目标是到本世纪末实现。他随后还宣布,将以“工党方式”削减“福利开支”。首相办公室立即紧急撤回任何关于政府“设定任意时间表或目标”的暗示。伯纳姆确实致力于福利改革,但反对“残酷的保守党削减”。收拾残局的将是61岁的麦克法登,一位前布莱尔派执行者。
In fairness, the budget wasn’t only “steady as she goes.”Healey put on record the government’s commitment to its defense spending target of 3% of gross domestic product by the end of the decade. He also later declared that there will be a “reduction in the benefits bill” done “in a Labour way.”The PM’s office immediately raced to retract any suggestion that the government was “setting an arbitrary timetable or target.”Burnham is genuinely committed to welfare reform, but is averse to “brutal Tory cuts.”Picking up the pieces will be the 61-year-old McFadden, a former Blairite enforcer.
福利大臣通常低调行事,但去年因在一封电子邮件中写道:“我与[工党议员]的每次会面都是,‘我们能向谁征税来为他人支付福利?’他们问错了问题。”而引起关注。他一直在勤恳地争取小群体议员的支持,恳求他们直面英国沉重的社会成本现实。
The welfare secretary usually operates below the radar, but attracted attention last year for observing in an email: “Every meeting I have [with Labour lawmakers] is, ‘Who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others?’ They’re asking the wrong questions.”He has been assiduously courting small groups of members of Parliament, pleading with them to face the facts on Britain’s crippling social costs.
一个希望的来源是,麦克法登可以在不削减一分钱的情况下降低福利开支。尽管未来预测令人恐惧,福利支出仍远低于2011-12年金融危机后的高峰。成功的残疾福利申请率在一年内从81%下降到53%。诀窍在于让申请人接受适当的劳动能力评估。
One source of hope is that McFadden can reduce the welfare bill without cutting a penny. Although future projections look terrifying, welfare spending is still far below its 2011-12 post-crisis peak. Successful disability benefit claims have fallen from 81% to 53% in a year. The trick is to get claimants to undergo a proper work-capability assessment.
伯纳姆的讨好民众的表演需要这两位部长扮演“正经人”。他们想象力并不丰富,但如果首相是天生的前台人物,希利和麦克法登看起来则是足够稳固的节奏组。
Burnham’s crowd-pleasing act demands the services of these two ministerial straight men. They are not richly endowed with imagination, but if the PM is a natural front man, Healey and McFadden look like a solid enough rhythm section.