随着美国人前往投票站，消费者信心触及历史最低点。美国选民本周正前往投票站参加美国中期选举。大多数人对经济状况以及唐纳德·特朗普管理经济的方式感到愤怒和沮丧。
Consumer sentiment hits all-time low as Americans head to the polls American voters are headed to the polls for the U.S. midterms this week. Most are angry and frustrated about the state of the economy and the way Donald Trump has managed it.
如果你想寻找这种不满的证据，看看密歇根大学的消费者信心指数就知道了。它显示消费者信心在特朗普领导下正在暴跌。
If you want evidence of that dissatisfaction look no further than the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. It shows consumer confidence is plummetting under Trump.
休斯敦的劳动经济学家兼政策顾问凯瑟琳·安妮·爱德华兹说：“自20世纪70年代以来，只有三次有超过半数的美国人表示他们的政府在管理经济方面做得不好。目前这一比例为74%。”
"Only three times since the 1970s have more than half of Americans said their government's doing bad job managing the economy. Right now it's at 74 per cent," said Kathryn Anne Edwards, a labour economist and policy consultant in Houston.
该指数用于衡量消费者信心。今天的数值甚至比20世纪80年代最艰难的经济衰退时期或2008至2009年金融危机时期还要低。
The index gauges consumer sentiment. It is lower today than it was during the toughest recessions in the 1980s or even the financial crisis in 2008-09.
她表示，这项调查是该国规模最大、历史最悠久的经济数据集之一。它自20世纪40年代以来一直在进行，并自1978年起成为月度调查。
And she says that survey is one of the biggest and longest standing bodies of economic data in the country. It's been going on since the 1940s. And it's been a monthly survey since 1978.
爱德华兹表示，这类数字表明，在某些根本层面上，美国经济正在让美国家庭失望。爱德华兹说：“这是完全空前绝后的。真的很难用言语来形容。”
Edwards says these kinds of numbers show that on some fundamental level, the U.S. economy is failing American households. "It's so completely unprecedented. It's really hard to put into words," said Edwards.
*n历史经验表明，消费者信心的这种暴跌只发生在经济衰退最深重、最黑暗的日子里。而这正是诡异之处。美国经济离衰退还很远。
Those kind of plunges in consumer sentiment historically only happen in the deepest and darkest days of a recession. And that's what's odd. The U.S. economy is nowhere near a recession.
来自华盛顿的最新GDP数据显示，美国经济是西方世界增长最快的经济体。
The latest GDP numbers out of Washington show the U.S. economy is the fastest growing economy in the Western world.
美国7月至9月季度的GDP增长了3.8%。（相比之下，加拿大的增长率约为该数字的三分之一。）零售额有所上升。对人工智能的投资继续持续走高。股市处于历史最高点。
American GDP expanded by 3.8 per cent in the quarter running from July to September. (By comparison, Canada is on track for about a third of that growth.) Retail sales were up. Investment in AI continues to churn ever higher. And stock markets are at an all-time high.
*加拿大皇家银行的经济学家团队迈克·里德、卡丽·弗里斯通和伊姆里·哈金写道：“GDP增长高于趋势，消费者支出依然强劲，裁员人数维持在极低水平，我们在过去一年里看到了稳定的失业率。”但如果宏观数据如此之好，为什么选民如此愤怒？
"GDP is growing above trend, consumer spending remains robust, layoffs trudge along at ultra-low levels, and we've seen a stable unemployment rate over the past year," wrote RBC's team of economists Mike Reid, Carrie Freestone and Imri Haggin. But if the macro data is so good, why are voters so angry?
加拿大国民银行集团首席经济学家弗朗西斯·热内罗在给客户的一份报告中写道：“对许多选民来说，经济现在成了通货膨胀的同义词，因为不断上涨的价格超过了就业报告、住房负担能力和股市表现。”
"For many voters, the economy is now synonymous with inflation, as rising prices outweigh job reports, housing affordability and stock market performance," wrote Francis Généreux, lead economist at Desjardins Group in a note to clients.
而这些不断上涨的价格主要由两件事驱动：关税和美国领导的对伊朗战争。
And those rising prices have been driven by two main things; tariffs and the U.S.-led war with Iran.
油价在战争爆发当天飙升。随着各种停火和协议传言的出现和消失，油价略有波动，但今天美国司机在加油站支付的费用远高于一年前。
Gas prices shot up the day the war began. They have bounced around a little as talk of various ceasefires and deals come and go, but American drivers are paying far more at the pumps today than they were a year ago.
而且，随着司机和行人在社区中穿梭，汽油价格到处都在公布。因此，即使你骑自行车上班，价格的上涨也极其难以忽视。
And gasoline prices are posted everywhere as drivers and pedestrians alike move through a neighbourhood. So even if you ride a bicycle to work, the increase in prices is incredibly hard to ignore.
美国的通货膨胀率已回升至3.7%，经济学家警告称，这还没涨完。是的，大部分增长归因于能源成本。但关税也起到了作用。
Inflation in the U.S. has ticked up to 3.7 per cent, and economists warn it's not done climbing yet. Yes, much of that increase is due to energy costs. But tariffs have contributed as well.
纽约联邦储备银行最近的一份报告发现，如果不是因为特朗普的关税，许多日常用品的价格去年本会下降。
A recent report from the New York Federal Reserve found the cost of many everyday items would have declined last year were it not for Trump's tariffs.
*研究人员回顾了自新冠疫情时期通胀激增峰值以来的消费者商品价格12个月变化。他们显示价格增长在2024年仍在下降，并在2025年发生逆转。
Researchers looked at the 12-month change in consumer goods prices going back to the peak of the COVID-era surge in inflation. They showed price growth was still falling in 2024 and reversed in 2025.
玛丽·阿米蒂、塞巴斯蒂安·海斯和大卫·E·温斯坦写道：“我们的估计将这一增长归因于关税：到2026年2月，关税对商品价格通胀贡献了2.9个百分点，如果没有关税，商品价格本会略有下降。”
"Our estimates attribute this increase to the tariffs: by February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation, and without them goods prices would have fallen slightly," wrote Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David E. Weinstein.
爱德华兹表示，选民一直在关注特朗普政府的政策决定以及它们如何推高价格。她表示，消费者信心指数出现了两次急剧下跌。一次是在引入关税时，另一次是在对伊朗战争爆发时。她说：“美国人明白了。关税让他们的生活变得更加昂贵。”
And Edwards says voters have followed the Trump administration's policy decisions and how they drive prices. She says there are two sharp drops in the consumer sentiment index. One when tariffs were introduced and the other when the war with Iran began. "Americans get it. Tariffs have made their lives more expensive," she said.
美国人将带着这种认知走进本周的投票站。如果民调保持不变，中期选举可能会导致国会组成和国会山权力格局发生翻天覆地的变化。
And Americans will take that knowledge into the polling booth this week. If the polls hold, the midterms could lead to sweeping changes in the formation of Congress and who holds power on Capitol Hill.
但这些新当选的参议员和众议员是否真的会采取行动降低对加拿大的关税，完全是另一个问题。
But whether those newly elected Senate and House members actually take action to lower tariffs for Canadians is a different question altogether.