
当《时代》杂志在5月询问众议院军事委员会首席民主党人、众议员亚当·史密斯(Adam Smith,华盛顿州)对弹劾唐纳德·特朗普总统前景的看法时,他拒绝表态,警告称他在国会数十年间目睹的每一次弹劾都让被弹劾者在政治上变得更强。五个月后,这位来自华盛顿州的众议员史密斯已准备好承担这一风险。
When the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee was asked by TIME in May about the prospect of impeaching President Donald Trump, he declined to commit, warning that every impeachment he had witnessed during his decades in Congress had left its target politically stronger. Five months later, Rep. Adam Smith of Washington is prepared to take that risk.
随着民主党寄望于在周二的中期选举中重夺众议院控制权,史密斯表示,他现在支持弹劾特朗普,并倾向于同时支持对国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯(Pete Hegseth)启动弹劾程序,这使他成为支持此举的资历最深的民主党人之一。
With Democrats hoping to reclaim control of the House in Tuesday's midterm elections, Smith says that he now supports impeaching Trump and is inclined to also back proceedings against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, making him one of the most senior Democrats to endorse such a course.
“特朗普已变得极其危险。他在言论和治理方式上完全失控,”史密斯在选举前一周接受《时代》杂志采访时表示。“我认为我们必须尝试,即使不能成功。”史密斯的表态尤为重要,因为如果民主党赢得众议院,他将有望担任军事委员会主席,从而处于调查五角大楼处理与伊朗冲突、对乌克兰政策以及在拉丁美洲军事行动的核心位置。
"Trump has become beyond dangerous. He is just completely out of control in what he says and how he is governing," Smith told TIME in an interview a week before the election. "I think we have to try, even if it doesn't succeed." Smith's endorsement is particularly significant because he would be in line to chair the Armed Services Committee if Democrats win the House, putting him at the center of investigations into the Pentagon's handling of the war with Iran, its approach to Ukraine, and military operations in Latin America.
他的立场出台之际,民主党正为重掌国会大权的可能性做准备,但对于如何激烈地对抗总统,党内鲜有共识。对二十多名民主党人的采访显示,该党普遍认为特朗普的行为构成可弹劾罪行,但在再次试图将其免职是否为行使权力的有效途径上,分歧深重。特朗普此前两次遭弹劾均以参议院宣判无罪告终,即便民主党本周获胜,也极不可能产生接近定罪所需的三分之二多数。
His position comes as Democrats prepare for the possibility of reclaiming congressional power with little agreement over how aggressively to confront the President. Interviews with more than two dozen Democrats reveal a party broadly convinced that Trump has engaged in conduct warranting impeachment, but deeply divided over whether another attempt to remove him would be an effective use of its authority. Trump's two previous impeachments ended in Senate acquittals, and even a Democratic victory this week is unlikely to produce anything approaching the two-thirds majority required for conviction.
史密斯自1996年起在众议院任职,他此前曾指出自己是少数经历过三次弹劾的议员之一。史密斯在5月接受《时代》采访时说:“每一次被弹劾的人在被弹劾后都比弹劾前更强大,”并认为民主党人需要考虑另一场弹劾在现实上能实现什么,而不是仅仅为了表明他们愿意与特朗普对抗而推动弹劾。“我想确保如果我们走上这条路,能够帮助击败特朗普及其有毒的意识形态,”他当时说。
Smith, who has served in the House since 1996, noted previously that he was one of the few House members to have sat through three impeachments. "Every single time the person impeached got stronger after they were impeached than before," Smith told TIME in May, arguing that Democrats needed to consider what another impeachment could realistically achieve rather than pursue it simply to demonstrate their willingness to confront Trump. "I want to make sure that if we're going down that road it's going to help defeat Trump and his poisonous ideology," he said at the time.
他说,此后特朗普对俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京日益示好的姿态、他在美国对乌克兰援助方面的决定以及他的公开言论,使他确信总统继续执政将带来极大的危险。史密斯说:“乌克兰问题绝对产生了深远影响。当我看到他与普京走得越来越近,切断对乌克兰的支持,变得更亲普京时,我就明白了,这是一个重要因素。”他还提到特朗普日益“失控”的演讲,包括他在中东战争期间对油价上涨的评论。
Since then, he says, Trump's increasingly conciliatory posture toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, his decisions involving American support for Ukraine, and his public rhetoric have convinced him that the President's continued tenure presents an extraordinary danger. "The Ukraine stuff definitely had a profound impact," Smith says. "When I saw how close he was getting to Putin and shutting off support for Ukraine, being more pro-Putin. I mean, that's a big part of it." He also cites Trump's increasingly "unhinged speeches," including remarks about rising gasoline prices amid the war in the Middle East.
史密斯愿意接受弹劾,这使他与更谨慎的民主党人产生分歧,后者希望该党优先解决主导竞选的经济问题,同时建立可能最终导致弹劾的调查记录。他承认将特朗普免职面临艰巨障碍,但认为自总统首任期以来政治环境已发生变化。“我认为不会像之前两次那样被视为消极或党派性,因为公众正在意识到特朗普搞的骗局,”他现在说。
Smith’s willingness to embrace impeachment puts him at odds with more cautious Democrats who want the party to prioritize addressing the economic concerns that have dominated the campaign, while establishing an investigative record that might ultimately lead to impeachment. He acknowledges the formidable obstacles to removing Trump but argues that the political environment has changed since the President's first term. "I don't think it will be viewed as negatively or as partisan as in the previous two efforts, just because the public is waking up to the con game that Trump put on," he says now.
“可弹劾的罪行早已显而易见。”其他资深众议院民主党人不太确定推进弹劾能否取得多大成效,即使他们认同史密斯对特朗普行为的评估。马里兰州众议员杰米·拉斯金在2021年特朗普第二次弹劾审判中领导了众议院管理人员,他说他“几乎毫无疑问总统犯下了多项可弹劾的罪行”,引述他所描述的违宪军事行动和滥用国会支出权力。但他区分了确立弹劾理由与决定另一次审判是否是国会时间和政治资本的最佳用途。
"The impeachable offenses have been obvious for a long time.”Other senior House Democrats are less certain that pursuing impeachment would accomplish much, even if they share Smith's assessment of Trump's conduct. Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, who led the House managers during Trump's second impeachment trial in 2021, says he has "little doubt that the president has committed multiple impeachable offenses," citing what he describes as unconstitutional military action and abuses of congressional spending authority. But he draws a distinction between establishing grounds for impeachment and deciding whether another trial would be the best use of Congress's time and political capital.
“总统是否犯下可弹劾的罪行以及我们是否将推进弹劾,这是两个不同的问题,”拉斯金对《时代》杂志说。
"The question of whether he committed impeachable offenses and whether we are going to pursue impeachment are two different issues," Raskin tells TIME.
特朗普因其与乌克兰的交易于2019年被弹劾,又因其在1月6日国会山袭击事件中的角色于2021年再次被弹劾。两次程序均以无罪释放告终,尽管第二次审判中有七名共和党参议员投票定罪。虽然一些民主党人认为那些努力对于建立历史和宪法记录是必要的,但另一次弹劾可能会耗费国会数月的注意力,激发特朗普支持者,并让选民质疑该党凭借其新多数席位取得了什么成就。
Trump was impeached in 2019 over his dealings with Ukraine and again in 2021 over his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Both proceedings ended in acquittal, although seven Republican senators voted to convict him in the second trial. While some Democrats regarded those efforts as necessary to establish a historical and constitutional record, another impeachment could consume months of congressional attention, galvanize Trump's supporters, and leave voters questioning what the party had accomplished with its new majority.
加利福尼亚州参议员亚当·希夫,曾主导特朗普第一次弹劾审判的起诉工作,他表示,民主党在了解下一届国会的组成以及调查可能揭示的情况之前,应避免下结论。“毫无疑问,他一直在从事极有可能构成弹劾理由的行为,”希夫对《时代》杂志说。“问题是,这是否可行?”希夫反对之前的弹劾努力在政治上增强了特朗普的观点,但认为民主党最初应集中精力调查影响美国人财务的腐败问题。“我们的首要关注点应当是那些推高民众生活成本的腐败,”他说。
Sen. Adam Schiff of California, who led the prosecution during Trump's first impeachment trial, says Democrats should avoid reaching conclusions before knowing the composition of the next Congress and what investigations might uncover. "There's no question he's been engaging in conduct that is very likely impeachable," Schiff told TIME. "The question is, is it viable?" Schiff disputes the notion that the earlier impeachment efforts strengthened Trump politically, but argues that Democrats should concentrate initially on investigating corruption that has affected Americans' finances. "Our primary focus ought to be on corruption that has raised the cost of living for people," he says.
众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯也拒绝承诺进行弹劾,称民主党“没有排除任何选项,也没有排除任何可能性。”他表示,调查应有助于决定众议院是否采取这一路线。
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has similarly declined to commit to impeachment, saying Democrats "haven't ruled anything in, and we haven't ruled anything out." He has indicated that investigations should help determine whether the House pursues that course.
一些民主党人正将目光投向特朗普内阁成员,特别是赫格塞斯,认为他们可能是更可行的目标,理由是那些绝不会投票罢免总统的共和党人,可能更愿意反对一位其领导力已遭本党内部批评的国防部长。“有些共和党人可能支持弹劾赫格塞斯,但可能不会支持弹劾特朗普,”史密斯说。
Some Democrats are looking toward members of Trump's Cabinet, particularly Hegseth, as potentially more viable targets, reasoning that Republicans who would never vote to remove the President might be more willing to turn against a defense secretary whose leadership has drawn criticism from within their own party. "There are Republicans who would support impeaching Hegseth who might not support doing it to Trump," Smith says.
国防部长在处理伊朗战争、罢免高级军官以及五角大楼与国会的关系方面,面临日益严格的审查。一些共和党人公开表示,对他的领导以及国防部未能提供关于战争目标、成本和持续时间的充分信息感到沮丧。在共和党控制的众议院,弹劾他的推动已经成形,尽管特朗普为赫格塞斯辩护,称他为“伟大的战士”,并驳斥了民主党罢免他的努力。
The Defense Secretary has faced mounting scrutiny over his handling of the Iran war, the removal of senior military officers, and the Pentagon's relationship with Congress. Some Republicans have publicly expressed frustration with his leadership and the department's failure to provide adequate information about the war's objectives, costs, and duration. A push to impeach him has already taken shape in the Republican-controlled House, although Trump has defended Hegseth, calling him a "great warrior" and dismissing Democratic efforts to remove him.
拉斯金表示,弹劾一名内阁部长不太可能占据国会的全部议程,也不会引发与推翻总统选举结果相同的担忧。“内阁官员的问题稍微容易一些,因为这不一定会消耗国会所有的政策精力,”他说。
Raskin says that impeaching a Cabinet secretary would be less likely to consume Congress's agenda or raise the same concerns about overturning the result of a presidential election. "The question of cabinet officers is a little bit easier because it doesn't necessarily consume all of the policy oxygen in Congress," he says.
然而,弹劾赫格塞斯需要众议院过半数票,而将其免职仍需参议院三分之二多数票。批评其表现的共和党人不一定表示愿意支持弹劾。但对政府军事决策日益加剧的不安,特别是伊朗战争的进行方式和代价,可能为民主党提供一个针对特朗普不存在的切入口。
However, impeaching Hegseth would require a majority in the House, and removing him would still require a two-thirds vote in the Senate. Republicans who have criticized his performance have not necessarily indicated any willingness to support impeachment. But the growing unease over the administration's military decisions, particularly the conduct and costs of the war with Iran, could offer Democrats an opening that does not exist with Trump.
科罗拉多州众议员杰森·克劳是军事委员会成员,曾在特朗普首次弹劾审判中担任众议院起诉经理。他表示,无论选举结果如何,议员们一直在为对五角大楼进行广泛调查做准备。他提到撤换高级军官、涉嫌挪用国防资金、对北约的威胁、可能从欧洲撤军,以及政府对伊朗战争的处理,都是需要审查的领域。但克劳止步于支持将弹劾作为首选方案。“弹劾只是国会拥有的工具之一,”他对《时代》周刊表示。
Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado, a member of the Armed Services Committee who served as a House manager during Trump's first impeachment trial, says lawmakers have been preparing for extensive investigations into the Pentagon regardless of the election's outcome. He cites the removal of senior military officers, alleged misuse of defense funds, threats against NATO, possible troop withdrawals from Europe, and the administration's handling of the Iran war as areas demanding scrutiny. But Crow stops short of endorsing impeachment as the preferred course. "Impeachment is only one tool that Congress has," he told TIME.
“如果目标是让皮特·赫格塞斯离开国防部以制止腐败,为这届失控、鲁莽的政府设立一些护栏,并保护国家免受唐纳德·特朗普日益反复无常和危险行为的侵害,那么我们必须看十一月大选后国会的构成如何,”克劳说。“弹劾可能是其中的一部分。如果那是正确的工具,我绝不犹豫会使用它。”
"If the goal is to get Pete Hegseth out of the Department of Defense to stop corruption, to erect some guardrails against this runaway, reckless administration, and to protect the country against the increased erratic and dangerous behavior of Donald Trump, then we have to look post-November what the Congress looks like," Crow says. "Maybe impeachment is part of that. I wouldn't hesitate to use that if that's the right one."