艾琳·奥贡凯耶很高兴欢迎伦敦玛丽女王大学美国政治高级讲师理查德·约翰逊。
Erin Ogunkeye is pleased to welcome Richard Johnson, Senior Lecturer in US Politics at Queen Mary University of London.
他表示：“在总统任期的这个阶段，唐纳德·特朗普已是受损的政治资产。”
He says that "Donald Trump is damaged goods at this point in his presidency."
约翰逊以这一毫不妥协的评估，带我们梳理塑造2026年美国中期选举的政治力量。
With this uncompromising assessment, Johnson takes us through the political forces shaping the 2026 US midterm elections.
约翰逊并不想当然地认为特朗普强大的竞选本能能够再次动员共和党选民，而是质疑这位总统的政治影响力是否已成为他曾改造过的那个政党的负担。他指出美国选民中可能出现一次意义重大的重组。
Far from assuming that Trump's formidable campaigning instincts can once again mobilize Republican voters, Johnson questions whether the president's political influence has become a liability for the very party he once transformed. He points to a potentially significant realignment within the American electorate.
在约翰逊看来，经济不满、生活成本上升、贸易争端以及对伊朗战争的幻灭感，似乎正在削弱支撑特朗普重新掌权的联盟中的重要组成部分。
Economic grievances, rising living costs, trade disputes and disillusionment with the war in Iran appear, in Johnson's reading, to be weakening important elements of the coalition that sustained Trump's return to power.
尤为关键的是，拉丁裔选民、农业社区以及部分MAGA选民可能正在重新考虑自己的政治忠诚，或者干脆退出选举参与。
Particularly consequential is the possibility that Latino voters, agricultural communities and sections of the MAGA electorate may be reconsidering their political loyalties or withdrawing from electoral participation altogether.