
伊朗军方警告称,如果与美国和以色列再次爆发全面战争,将比对手预期的更持久、代价更高昂。
Iran’s military is warning that if all-out war breaks out again with the United States and Israel, it will be longer and more costly than their rivals expect.
伊朗武装部队可能会对美国、以色列及其他国家部署新武器和新战术,这将是自去年6月以来三国之间的第三场重大冲突。
Iran’s armed forces could deploy new weapons and tactics against the US, Israel and other countries, which would be the third major conflict between the countries since June last year.
越来越多迹象表明,美国和以色列对伊朗的战争——该战争始于2月28日——可能在美国中期选举后重启。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周日表示,与伊朗的战争将“以某种方式很快结束”,德黑兰应达成协议,否则“铁锤”将落下。
There have been increasing signs that the US and Israel’s war on Iran, which began on February 28, could restart after the US midterm elections. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the war with Iran will end “very soon one way or the other” and Tehran should agree a deal or “the hammer” will come down.
伊朗革命卫队前高级指挥官侯赛因·卡纳尼·莫加达姆接受半岛电视台采访时表示,尽管今年早些时候美国和以色列的打击对伊朗武装部队造成重大打击,但与以往冲突相比,其目前的作战状态更好。
Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, a former senior IRGC commander, told Al Jazeera that despite extensive blows to the Iranian armed forces during US and Israeli strikes earlier this year, they are now in better operational shape compared with previous conflicts.
“在进攻方面,我们的目标数据库已大幅扩大,导弹的射程、精度和弹头有所改进,无人机能力也有所提升,”他说。
“In terms of offence, our target database has significantly expanded, the range, accuracy and warheads of our missiles have improved and our drone capabilities have increased,” he said.
他补充说,正在识别新的敌方资产,并计划在更多地理区域开展行动。阿尔卡米尼亚表示,如果伊朗再次遭到攻击,此前未披露的能力和目标将被揭露——并被使用。
New enemy assets were being identified and operations in additional geographical areas were being planned, he added. Arkaminia said that previously undisclosed capabilities and targets would be revealed – and used – if Iran is attacked again.
据报道,伊朗武装部队总参谋部、伊朗革命卫队和伊朗伊斯兰共和国陆军的指挥官最近会见了最高领袖莫杰塔巴·哈梅内伊,讨论再次遭到攻击时将采取什么措施。他们表示,反应将是立即的,并可能超出西亚地区。
Commanders from Iran’s General Staff of Armed Forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Islamic Republic of Iran Army are reported to have recently met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to discuss what steps will be taken if attacked again. The response will be immediate and could go beyond the West Asia region they said.
伊朗革命卫队发言人侯赛因·莫赫比周日晚间表示,该部队“百分之百准备好”应对另一次攻击,并将“最大威慑”描述为伊朗在不久的将来将实现的目标。
The IRGC was “100 percent ready” to confront another attack, spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said on Sunday evening, describing “maximum deterrence” as a goal Iran would reach in the near future.
陆军发言人穆罕默德·阿克拉米尼亚表示,指挥官们将依靠“非对称作战”战术,以弥补美国军事装备的优势。
Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said the commanders would rely on “asymmetric warfare” tactics that would compensate for the superiority of US military equipment.
他补充说,在伊朗与美国6月份谅解备忘录之后的短暂停火期间,“一些武器进行了翻新,并新增了装备和新战术”。
He added that “some weaponry was renovated and new equipment was added along with new tactics” during the brief ceasefire period that came after the June memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US.
上个月,国家电视台展示了一条地下无人机生产线。当局还展示了升级版的“阿拉什”攻击无人机,并声称其弹头重量已增至100公斤,制导性能有所提升。
Last month, state television showed an underground drone production line. The authorities also showcased an upgraded version of the Arash attack drone and claimed that its warhead had doubled to 100kg with improved guidance.
据路透社上周发表的一项调查,与伊朗国防体系相关的众多军事机构规避了制裁,并将数十亿美元投入军事进口,以补充伊朗革命卫队。今年1月至6月期间,从中国、俄罗斯和德国进口的用于导弹和无人机生产的物资包括火箭推进剂、炸药、起爆器、钛材以及可用作发射车的重型卡车。
According to a Reuters investigation published last week, numerous military agencies linked with Iran’s defence establishment have evaded sanctions and funnelled billions into military imports to replenish the IRGC. The imports between January 2025 and June this year from China, Russia and Germany to fuel missile and drone production included rocket propellants, explosives, detonators, titanium and heavy-duty trucks that could be used as launchers.
许多伊朗导弹防御系统、雷达和其他设备在战争中遭到打击。但卡纳尼·莫加达姆表示,剩余和新研发的系统正在变得更加精准,他指出,对美国制造的F-35战斗机及其他战机和无人机的打击是可以复制和扩大的成功案例。
Many Iranian missile defence systems, radars and other equipment were hit during the war. But Kanani Moghaddam said remaining and newly developed systems were becoming more accurate, pointing to the targeting of a US-built F-35 and other warplanes and drones as successes that can be replicated and expanded upon.
“在海上,我们已经证明,可以轻易瞄准超级油轮,”他谈到伊朗当局视为“未经授权”的霍尔木兹海峡通行时说。他说,伊朗军队在9月对美国海军舰艇的攻击促使美国军舰此后不再进入这条关键水道。但美国继续对伊朗南部港口实施海上封锁,而伊朗的平民人口和基础设施如果战争重启,仍大多处于暴露状态。
“At sea, we have shown that we can easily target supertankers,” he said regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz that is deemed “unauthorised” by Iranian authorities. He said Iranian attacks on US Navy vessels in September prompted them to stop venturing into the critical waterway since. But the US has continued its naval blockade on southern Iranian ports, while Iran’s civilian population and infrastructure remain largely exposed if the war resumes.
德黑兰及全国其他城市缺乏保护平民的避难所或预警系统。当局未报告有关承诺建设避难所以及公共预警安排存在漏洞的任何进展。
Tehran and other cities across the country lack shelters or early warning systems to protect civilians. Authorities have not reported any progress regarding the promised shelters and gaps in public warning arrangements.
伊朗的电力网络,以及石油和天然气设施、石化和钢铁制造商,还有公路和铁路也可能再次遭到袭击,在经济危机中,生活将变得更加困难。“情报弱点”在两场战争期间,伊斯兰共和国许多高级政治和军事人物被美以打击杀害。
Iran’s electricity grid, as well as oil and gas facilities, petrochemical and steel manufacturers and roads and railways could also be attacked again, making life even more difficult amid the economic crisis. ‘Intelligence weakness’During both wars, many senior political and military figures of the Islamic Republic were killed by US and Israeli strikes.
新任最高领导人自三月初接替其父、阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊以来,未曾露面或发表讲话,表面上是出于安全考虑。
The new supreme leader has not been seen or heard from since replacing his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in early March, ostensibly for security reasons.
这导致国内安全控制加强,并促使体制内一些声音就情报失误和领导层保护问题提出担忧并要求追究责任。
This has led to tighter domestic security controls, and prompted some voices from within the establishment to raise concerns and demand accountability for intelligence failures and protection of leadership.
“我们遭到打击,而且打击很重,”与政府有联系的分析人士哈姆泽·拉希姆·萨法维周六在电视辩论中表示。“主要原因是情报弱点,但没人谈论它,也没有人为此承担责任。”
“We have been hit and hit hard,” state-linked analyst Hamzeh Rahim Safavi said during a televised debate on Saturday. “The main cause is intelligence weakness, but no one talks about it or is held accountable”.
这位分析人士是叶海亚·拉希姆·萨法维的儿子,叶海亚·拉希姆·萨法维曾任伊朗革命卫队总司令,目前担任最高领导人的高级军事顾问。该分析人士表示,强硬派呼吁获取核弹的呼声无法修复情报和安全弱点。
The analyst is the son of Yahya Rahim Safavi, a former commander-in-chief of the IRGC who currently serves as a senior military adviser to the supreme leader. The analyst said calls by hardliners to acquire a nuclear bomb would not repair intelligence and security weaknesses.
但前伊朗革命卫队师长、现任议会国家安全委员会成员的伊斯迈尔·库萨里上周对当地媒体表示,尽管最高领导人等人被暗杀,“敌人并未实现其主要目标”。他说,这些目标是推翻伊斯兰共和国并分裂伊朗。
But Esmaeil Kowsari, a former IRGC division commander now a parliamentary national-security commission member, told local media last week that even though the supreme leader and others were assassinated, “the enemies did not reach their main goals”. He said the goals were to overthrow the Islamic Republic and fragment Iran.
“在美国选举前夕,美国人试图通过制造骚动和发动心理战来假装自己取得了胜利,但那不是事实,”库萨里说。
“On the eve of their elections, the Americans are trying to pretend that they have achieved victory by causing a ruckus and launching psychological operations, but that is not the truth,” Kowsari said.