许多伊朗人正为全面战争的回归做准备，因为以色列和美国的选举加剧了不确定性。
Many Iranians are bracing for a return to all-out war as elections in Israel and the United States heighten uncertainty.
阿米尔-侯赛因·拉吉 开罗 —— 随着以色列和美国领导人在两国即将到来的选举前加大威胁力度，而伊朗领导人尽管面临越来越大的压力依然强硬对抗，许多伊朗人正为全面战争的回归做准备。面临周二一场势均力敌投票的以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡表示，必须消除伊朗领导层。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普誓言要在战争爆发八个月后“完成任务”，因为第三艘航空母舰和数千名士兵正在开往该地区。一些人担心在11月3日美国中期选举后不久就会遭到袭击。
AMIR-HUSSEIN RADJY CAIRO — Many Iranians are bracing for a return to all-out war as Israeli and U.S. leaders sharpen their threats ahead of elections both countries in the coming days, and as Iran’s leaders remain defiant despite mounting pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who faces a close vote Tuesday, says Iran’s leadership must be eliminated. U.S. President Donald Trump vows to “finish the job” in Iran eight months after the war began, as a third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops make their way to the region. Some fear attacks just after the U.S. midterms on Nov. 3.
美联社采访了德黑兰居民，他们描述了日益增长的焦虑。一些人正准备离开首都。伊朗总统指责美国破坏了数月来几乎没有进展迹象的谈判。
The Associated Press spoke with Tehran residents who described growing anxiety. Some were preparing to leave the capital. Iran’s president has accused the U.S. of disrupting negotiations that have shown little sign of progress for months.
35岁的费雷什特·哈吉普尔是一名幼儿的母亲，她说她正在囤积非处方药和食物，因为担心“可能爆发战争和更大的炸弹”。伊朗因感受到日益加剧的经济痛苦而威胁新目标伊朗领导层认为，无论中期选举结果如何，特朗普都可能下令新的打击，“他们正在为各种情景做规划，以便采取补救措施”，前政府官员、德黑兰大学外交政策教授萨桑·卡里米说。
Fereshteh Hajipour, 35, the mother of a toddler, said she was stockpiling over-the-counter medicines and food for fear of a “possible war and bigger bombs.”Iran threatens new targets as it feels growing economic pain Iran’s leadership believes that Trump likely will order new strikes regardless of the results in the midterm elections, and “they are planning for the scenarios so they can take remedial measures,” said a former government official and foreign policy professor at the University of Tehran, Sasan Karimi.
“他们已经接受了他将再次袭击我们这一事实，无论是在选举前还是选举后，”卡里米说。
“They’ve accepted that he will attack us again, before or after the elections,” Karimi said.
伊朗再次威胁中东地区的美国军事基地和盟友，并警告可能攻击新目标，包括穿过霍尔木兹海峡的海底数据电缆。本月以来，过境该海峡的商船遭遇的报告袭击数量达到自3月战争爆发初期以来的最高水平。
Iran has again threatened U.S. military bases and allies in the Middle East, and has warned that it could attack new targets, including undersea data cables that snake through the Strait of Hormuz This month has seen the highest number of reported attacks on commercial ships transiting the strait since the war’s opening weeks in March.
与此同时，美国对伊朗港口实施的海上封锁限制了伊朗政府赖以维持的石油出口，随着双方都试图拖垮对方，经济痛苦加剧。卡车在边境堆积，因为伊朗的贸易转向了陆路运输。
Meanwhile, a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has restricted oil exports on which Iran’s government depends, increasing the economic pain as each side tries to outlast the other. Trucks have piled up at borders as Iran’s trade shifts to overland.
封锁导致伊朗出现药品短缺，尽管没有迹象显示食品或其他必需品短缺。随着伊朗货币价值跌至历史低点，在过去一年大幅贬值，伊朗人的生计和购买力崩塌。通货膨胀飙升。伊朗官员指责美国旨在煽动动荡。
The blockade has caused medicine shortages in Iran, though there is no sign of shortages of food or other essential goods. Iranians have seen livelihoods and purchasing power crumble as their currency’s value has reached record lows, losing much of its value in the past year. Inflation has soared. Iranian officials have accused the U.S. of aiming to foment unrest.
“经济战争是针对我们的战争的主要轴心，”伊朗议会议长、曾在多轮与美国谈判中担任首席谈判代表的穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫本月在一次官员聚会上表示。
“Economic warfare is the main axis of the war against us,” Iran’s parliamentary chief and lead negotiator in past rounds of talks with the U.S., Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, told a gathering of officials this month.
总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬说，伊朗面临“一个危险的转折点”，因为政府寻求应对日益严重的经济问题，并在伊斯兰共和国内部派系林立的权力结构中寻求共识。
President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran faces “a dangerous turning point” as the government seeks to manage growing economic problems and find consensus within the Islamic Republic’s fractious power structure.
全国范围抗议活动的记忆犹新，那些抗议由经济压力引发，在战争爆发前几周遭到致命镇压。
Memories are fresh of the nationwide protests sparked by economic pressures that led to a deadly crackdown weeks before the war.
一次超市采购可耗掉半个月工资 即使是中产阶级伊朗人，负担基本食品杂货也变得困难。自战争开始以来，主食价格大幅上涨。大米价格上涨逾60%，牛肉上涨逾150%。
A supermarket trip can eat up half a month’s salary Even for middle-class Iranians, affording basic groceries has become difficult. Prices for staples have risen steeply since the war began. Rice is over 60% more expensive, and beef over 150%.
36岁的i表示，一次超市采购能烧掉4亿里亚尔（约合150美元）的月度中等收入的一半。
i, 36, said a trip to the supermarket can burn through half a monthly mid-range salary of 400 million rials (roughly $150).
尽管物价高企，39岁的穆罕默德·阿贝迪表示，霍尔木兹海峡袭击事件升级促使他为家人囤积额外物资，包括干枣、食用油和大米。“我担心局势可能会恶化，”他说。政治温和派呼吁与美国达成协议以挽救经济。
Despite the high prices, Mohammad Abedi, 39, said the rising attacks on the Strait of Hormuz spurred him to buy extra supplies for his family, including dried dates, cooking oil and rice. “I’m worried that the situation could get worse,” he said. Political moderates are calling for a deal with the U.S. to salvage the economy.
“随着汇率上涨，行政部门治理国家的条件变得困难，”政界人士穆赫辛·哈希米·拉夫桑贾尼本月在改革派日报《建设报》的一篇社论中警告说。
“With the increase in the exchange rate, the conditions for governing the country have become difficult for the executive branch,” warned politician Mohsen Hashemi Rafsanjani in an editorial this month in the reformist daily Saazandegi.
但经济压力不会改变伊朗的谈判立场，曾在佩泽希齐扬手下任职的前官员卡里米表示。“这是经过验证的。任何经济压力都无法说服这里的人们达成协议。”
But economic pressure won’t change Iran’s negotiating positions, said Karimi, the former official who served under Pezeshkian. “This is a tested thing. No economic pressure will convince people here to make a deal.”
卡里米补充道：“德黑兰是基于抵抗进行计算的，因为他们确信这将改变对方的算计。”自上个月特朗普拒绝了伊朗的一项提议后，关于通过调解人进行谈判的公开言论很少。该提议称，如果华盛顿满足解除封锁等特定条件，伊朗将在一周内结束战争并完全开放霍尔木兹海峡。
Karimi added: “Tehran is calculating based on resistance, because they are convinced that will change the calculations of the other side.”There has been little said publicly about negotiations via mediators after Trump rejected an Iranian proposal last month to end the war and fully open the Strait of Hormuz within a week if Washington met certain conditions like lifting the blockade.
一些德黑兰居民正准备离开这座城市。在三月和四月战争最激烈时期，德黑兰遍布遭美以空袭炸毁的建筑。数千所房屋受损或被毁。
Some Tehran residents are preparing to leave the city Tehran is dotted with bombed-out buildings from U.S. and Israeli strikes during the height of the war in March and April. Thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed.
健身教练哈希姆·瓦季达尼（Hashem Vajdani），45岁，表示随着焦虑加剧，他计划离开这座城市。
Hashem Vajdani, 45, a gym trainer, said he plans to leave the city as anxiety grows.
“我已经收拾好行李，准备去北方一个更安全的城镇，”他说。“今天我又买了更多罐头食品、饼干和额外的毛毯。”人们担心新的战斗可能给伊朗平民带来更高的伤亡。战争已造成数千人死亡。特朗普重复威胁要摧毁发电厂和其他基础设施。
“I have already packed my belongings to go to a safer town in the north of the country,” he said. “Today I bought more canned food, crackers and extra blankets.”There are concerns that new fighting could bring a higher toll for Iranian civilians. Thousands have been killed in the war. Trump has repeated threats to take out power plants and other infrastructure.
对美国总统的愤怒在几天前德黑兰一处主要广场竖立的一块广告牌上得到了宣泄。路人驻足观看一名特朗普扮演者被关在铁笼后，其身后的屏幕播放着一段录像，画面显示伊朗南部一场婚礼遭遇致命袭击，该袭击被归咎于美国。
Anger at the U.S. president has found expression in a billboard set up days ago at a major Tehran square. Passersby have gawked at a Trump impersonator languishing behind bars as footage airing behind him shows a deadly strike on a wedding party in southern Iran that was blamed on the U.S.
法尔扎内·阿拉布扎德（Farzaneh Arabzadeh，30岁）仰望着笼子，表示希望眼前的场景能在现实中发生。她说，特朗普声称发动战争是为了帮助伊朗人，但他“让我们的人民陷入了更糟糕的境地”。以色列和美国的选举预计将反映选民对战争及其他问题的愤怒。在对哈马斯2023年10月7日袭击的愤怒，以及加沙、黎巴嫩和伊朗一系列无果战争的背景下，特朗普的政治支持可能会减弱，而内塔尼亚胡则面临激烈的选战。
Staring up at the cage, Farzaneh Arabzadeh, 30, said she hoped the scene would happen in reality. Trump said he launched the war to help Iranians, she said, but he “put our people in a worse situation.”The elections in Israel and the U.S. are expected to reflect voters’ anger over the war and other issues. Trump’s political support could be weakened while Netanyahu is in a tight race at a time of anger over Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack, and a series of inconclusive wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
德黑兰分析师拉赫曼·加雷曼普尔（Rahman Ghahremanpour）表示，以色列的选举尤为重要。他补充说，如果内塔尼亚胡留任，由于他愿意冒重大风险，全面战争重燃的可能性会更大。德黑兰居民表示，这两场选举都不太可能改善关系。
Israel’s elections are especially important, Tehran-based analyst Rahman Ghahremanpour said. If Netanyahu stays, there is a higher chance of all-out war resuming because of his willingness to take major risks, he added. Tehran residents said neither election is likely to improve relations.
“毫无区别。他们对我们的敌意保持不变，”50岁的拉苏尔·甘巴里（Rasool Ghanbari）说。
“It makes no difference. Their hostility toward us remains unchanged,” said Rasool Ghanbari, 50.