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明天的选举真的重要吗?Will tomorrow’s elections even matter?

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明天,美国人将前往投票站,选出他们的地方、州和联邦民选官员。虽然每场竞选对某些群体都很重要,但高度关注的焦点将集中在国会选举上。无论计票需要多长时间,这些结果都将决定第120届国会的未来构成:要么民主党、要么共和党控制两院,要么国会分裂,推测将是民主党控制众议院、共和党控制参议院。无论最终结果如何,联邦政府能否治理并解决选民最关键的问题?

Tomorrow, Americans will go to the polls to choose their local, state and federal elected officials. While every race is important to some group, intense focus will be on the congressional elections. Regardless of how long it takes to tally the votes, these outcomes will determine the future composition of the 120th Congress: Either Democrats or Republicans will win control of both chambers, or Congress will be divided, presumably with Democrats having the House and Republicans the Senate. No matter the final result, will the federal government be able to govern and resolve voters' most critical issues?

据彭博社报道,负担能力——包括经济和生活成本——以及因贫富差距不断扩大而加剧的腐败,是最主要的两大议题,其次是伊朗战争。从机票到医疗保健再到抗过敏药Zyrtec(西替利嗪),几乎所有东西的成本都飙升了。这造成了巨大的经济焦虑。然而,尽管竞选言辞激烈,个别竞选在粗俗和凶残粗暴程度上甚至毫无“底线”,民主党和共和党有什么计划来回应选民?

Affordability — both the economy and the cost of living — and corruption intensified by growing chasms between the rich and everyone else, were the two most dominant, according to Bloomberg, followed by the war in Iran. Costs of virtually everything from airline tickets to healthcare to Zyrtec, an anti-allergy pill, have soared. This has created great economic anxiety. Yet, despite the rhetoric and campaigns that in some cases had no “bottom” to the vulgarity and ferocious coarseness expressed, what plans do Democrats and Republicans have in place to respond to the voters?

答案介于极少和没有之间。而权力上最大的赢家是总统,即使他的名字不在任何选票上。对唐纳德·特朗普而言,无论选举如何决定,他都将获益。如果共和党控制两院,国会将继续充当橡皮图章和任人践踏的门垫,不敢挑战甚至质疑一位跛脚鸭领袖,因为他几乎肯定会决定其继任者作为椭圆形办公室的候选人。如果民主党横扫两院,或仅控制众议院,特朗普将向谁发泄愤怒并归咎于谁显而易见。

The answers are between few and none. And the big winner power-wise is the president, even if his name was not on any ballot. For Donald Trump, no matter how the election is decided, he stands to gain. If the Republicans hold both Houses, Congress will remain a rubber stamp and doormat, fearful of challenging or even questioning a lame duck leader because he almost certainly will determine his successor as candidate for the Oval Office. Should the Democrats sweep both chambers, or just the House, it is clear on whom Trump will vent his anger and blame.

行政命令将变得更加泛滥,并成为事实上的治理手段。法院何时或是否介入,如同过去一样,特朗普只会另寻法律或理由,为替代性行政命令提供正当性。

Executive orders will become even more plentiful and the de facto means of governing. When or if the courts intervene, as in the past, Trump will merely find another law or argument to justify a replacement executive order.

虽然民主党控制的众议院可能会发起调查,但除非民主党赢得参议院控制权,或能凑齐参议院 67 票以定罪,否则第三次弹劾总统不太可能列入议程。尽管存在可能的起诉理由,但政府中级别较低的成员,尤其是国防部长,将成为调查目标。然而,一连串调查能为国家的弊病、选民的担忧和恐惧提供更好的解决方案吗?

While a Democratic House may launch investigations, a third impeachment of the president is unlikely to be on the agenda, unless the Dems win the Senate or can count on 67 votes in the Senate to convict. Despite the possible grounds for an indictment, lesser members of the administration, in particular the Defense secretary, will be targeted. But will a slew of investigations provide any better solutions to the nation’s ills, and the voters worries and fears?

恐怕不能。例如,如何应对负担能力问题?能源和柴油的高昂成本以及化肥价格高企,完全是由于与伊朗的战争以及波斯湾石油和硝酸盐供应被切断所致。只有总统能结束战争,除非民主党控制了两院,或在参议院拥有足够票数援引《战争权力法案》。但总统会听从并遵守法律吗?他可以否决任何立法。国会可以推翻否决,尽管所需的三分之二多数似乎不太可能实现。

Probably not. How, for example, will the affordability issue be broached? The high costs of energy and diesel fuel as well as fertilizer, for example, are entirely due to the war with Iran and the cut-off of oil and nitrates from the Persian Gulf. Only the president can end the war, unless the Democrats won control of both Houses or had enough votes in the Senate to invoke the War Powers Act. But would the president listen and follow the law, as he could veto any legislation? Congress could override the veto, although the two-thirds majority needed seems unlikely.

在这种情况下,国会可以切断资金,就像它当年给越战钉上最后一颗棺材钉那样。不过,既然总统已将预算中的资金挪作他用,他难道不能再次这么做吗?在腐败问题上,旨在提高或设定道德标准的立法是不可能完成的任务。特朗普可以声称他的资产在一个他无法控制的信托中。而他周游列国、做交易的儿子和女婿是私人公民。

In that case, Congress could cut off funding, as it did to put a final nail in the Vietnam coffin. Still, as the president has shifted funds in the budget for other purposes, could he not do the same again? On corruption, legislation to elevate or set ethical and moral standards is a mission impossible. Trump can assert that his assets are in a trust over which he has no control. And his globetrotting, deal making sons and son-in-law are private citizens.

当然,没有任何法律能够或应该阻止他们谋生。至于贫富差距和金钱在政治中的影响,最高法院在“联合公民诉联邦选举委员会案”中的裁决赋予了金钱言论自由的宪法保护。这使埃隆·马斯克成为美国第二大权势人物,他捐赠近 5 亿美元——对一位万亿富翁而言仅是九牛一毛——帮助“买下”国会席位。

Surely no law could or should prevent them from making a living. As for the gap between rich and poor and the influence of money in politics, the Supreme Court’s Citizens v. United gave money the constitutional protection of free speech. That made Elon Musk the second most powerful man in America, contributing nearly half a billion dollars — a mere pittance to a trillionaire — to help buy congressional seats.

具有讽刺意味的是,马斯克是唯一能够通过切断基辅对其“星链”和“星盾”军事技术的使用权来结束俄乌战争的人。这意味着什么?民主党人和许多独立人士认为,凭借其在关税、移民执法、给富人减税以及挑动本不必打的战争等方面的政策,特朗普在不到两年内就毁了这个国家。然而,如果没有能够通过并经得起否决的明确立法,民主党人将被迫至少等到2028年。

And ironically, Musk is the only person who can end the Russia-Ukraine War by cutting off Kyiv’s access to his Starlink and Starshield military technology. What does this mean? Democrats and a number of independents believe that with his policies on tariffs, immigration enforcement, tax cuts for the rich and provoking wars that need not be fought, Trump has wrecked this country in less than two years. However, without clear cut legislation that can be passed and sustained over a veto, Democrats will be forced to wait until at least 2028.

但这个国家能负担得起等待那么久吗?哈兰·乌尔曼是一家私营公司的董事长,也是“震慑与打击”理论的主要撰写者。他与英国前国防参谋长、陆军元帅戴维·理查兹勋爵合著的新书《谁想得最好谁就赢:果断的战略思维将如何防止全球混乱》将于今秋出版。

But can the nation afford to wait that long? Harlan Ullman is chairman of a private company and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book, co-written with Field Marshal The Lord David Richards, former United Kingdom chief of defense and due out this Fall, is “Who Thinks Best Wins: How Decisive Strategic Thinking Will Prevent Global Chaos.”

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