
在过去十年里,特朗普总统稳步扩大行政权力,不断挑战其权力边界并规避传统制约。但周二民主党若接管国会,可能为特朗普时代带来最后一次宪法层面的考验,迫使立法部门重拾其对日益强势的白宫的制衡角色。一场“蓝色浪潮”可能让民主党同时控制参众两院,赋予他们不仅拥有众议院的调查和传票权力,还能通过参议院行使总统任命确认权、发起弹劾审判,以及掌控立法和联邦开支。
Over the past decade, President Trump has steadily expanded executive power, pushing the limits of his authority and evading traditional constraints. But a Democratic takeover of Congress on Tuesday could set up one final constitutional test for the Trump era, challenging the legislative branch to reclaim its role as a check on an increasingly powerful White House. A blue wave could give Democrats control of both chambers of Congress, handing them not only investigative and subpoena powers in the House, but also, through the Senate, the authority to confirm presidential appointments, pursue impeachments trials, and control legislation and federal spending.
从历史上看,这足以让总统收敛。然而,特朗普政府对行政特权的广泛主张以及对司法部的政治化操作,可能导致民主党主导的国会在特朗普最后两年任期内的监督变得迟缓——甚至不可能。法律顾问办公室声称,甚至特朗普与私人顾问的通信也可能受特权保护。联邦政府各部门原本支持国会监督的独立监察机构已被系统性清除。
That would historically be enough to bring a president to heel. Yet the Trump administration's broad assertion of executive privilege and politicization of the Justice Department could make oversight from a Democratic Congress sluggish — if not impossible — over Trump's final two years. The Office of Legal Counsel has claimed that even Trump’s communications with private advisors could be shielded by privilege. Independent watchdogs across the federal government, which have traditionally supported congressional oversight, have been systematically removed.
而司法部历来不论政治影响如何都会追究国会刑事移交案,但在现任领导层下恐将置之不理。一个好斗的政府将给民主党国会领袖带来挑战,他们可能面临党内要求因各类丑闻对总统发起第三次弹劾的呼声,并可能塑造即将到来的总统竞选季的辩论走向。“我们的制衡体制和超级多数要求,使得立法机关难以完全追究行政机关的责任,”哈佛大学名誉教授、特朗普首次参议院弹劾审判辩护律师艾伦·德肖维茨表示。
And a Justice Department that historically pursued congressional criminal referrals regardless of their political implications is poised to ignore them under current leadership. A combative administration will pose a challenge to Democratic congressional leaders, who may face internal party calls to pursue a third impeachment of the president over any number of scandals, and will likely shape debate over the coming presidential campaign season. "Our system of checks and balances and the requirements of super majorities makes it difficult for the legislature to hold the executive fully accountable," said Alan Dershowitz, a professor emeritus at Harvard and a lawyer to Trump during his first Senate impeachment trial.
“这是一件好事,”他补充道,“将最终的问责权留给选民,选民才是民主制度中最终的制衡力量。”
"This is a good thing," he added, "leaving ultimate accountability to the voters, who are the ultimate check in a democracy."
曾担任奥巴马总统首席伦理律师、并在特朗普首次弹劾审判期间担任众议院司法委员会顾问的诺姆·艾森承认,特朗普政府极有可能激烈抵制民主党的调查。“可以肯定的是,政府内部人员可能会抵制,”艾森说,“但过去20个月惊人的腐败规模也牵涉到了各种各样的私营部门人士。他们会配合,因为不配合的后果太严重了。”
Norm Eisen, who served as chief ethics lawyer for President Obama and counsel for the House Judiciary Committee during Trump’s first impeachment trial, acknowledged the Trump administration is likely to aggressively resist Democratic probes. "To be sure, those in the government may resist," Eisen said, "but the incredible scale of corruption over the past 20 months has also implicated a wide variety of those in the private sector. They will cooperate because the consequences for not doing so are too great."
民主党掌控国会也将挑战特朗普及其最亲密助手自2024年竞选以来成功推行的那种广阔的总统权力愿景。“2025计划”——一项由特朗普盟友发起、最终并入政府的保守派行动——采纳了一种全面的单一行政权理论,根据该理论,总统将对行政部门(包括司法部)行使近乎完全的控制权。由三位特朗普任命的大法官组成的保守派最高法院已认可该理论的关键要素,确认总统拥有广泛的免职行政官员权力,并授予总统行使核心宪法权力时的绝对豁免权,以及行使其他公务时的推定豁免权。
Democratic control will also challenge the expansive vision of presidential power that Trump and his closest aides have successfully advanced since the 2024 campaign. Project 2025 — a conservative effort pioneered by Trump allies that ultimately joined the administration — embraced a sweeping theory of unitary power, under which the president would exercise near-total control over the executive branch, including the Justice Department. A conservative Supreme Court, featuring three Trump appointees, has endorsed key elements of that theory, affirming broad presidential authority to remove executive officials and granting presidents absolute immunity for exercising their core constitutional powers, along with presumptive immunity for other official acts.
民主党控制的国会在监督权方面面临的现实限制,已让一些领导人开始考虑利用国会权力强制追责的其他手段。鲍登学院政府学教授、新书《新帝制总统制》作者安德鲁·鲁达莱维奇表示,内阁成员为竞选或私营部门的安稳而离职,可能会制造一系列空缺,而在民主党掌握参议院多数席位的情况下,特朗普将难以填补这些职位。“特朗普没有庞大的立法议程,但有一些事情是他想要的,”鲁达莱维奇说。
Practical limits on the oversight powers of a Democratic Congress already has some leaders thinking of other, coercive means of using congressional power to exact accountability. A cabinet fleeing for the campaign trail, or for the safety of the private sector, may create a series of openings that will be difficult for Trump to fill with a Democratic majority in the Senate, said Andrew Rudalevige, a professor of government at Bowdoin College and author of “The New Imperial Presidency.”"Trump doesn't have a huge legislative agenda, but there are some things he wants," Rudalevige said.
“这些可以被搁置。相关地,民主党人可以利用财政大权,因为预算案是必须通过的唯一法案。”据《国会山报》上月首次报道,已有数名民主党籍众议员正在讨论,是否以要求特朗普备受争议的国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯辞职,作为继续拨款资助国防部推进对伊朗战争的条件。圣路易斯华盛顿大学历史系主任彼得·卡斯托尔表示,民主党人可能很难让政府为过去的行为负责,其中许多行为已在联邦法院诉讼中。
"Those can be held up. And relatedly, Democrats could embrace the power of the purse, since the budget is the one bill that needs to pass." Already, several Democratic House members are debating whether to demand the resignation of Pete Hegseth, Trump's embattled defense secretary, as a condition of further appropriations funding for the department in its pursuit of war with Iran, the Hill first reported last month. Democrats may find it difficult to hold the administration accountable for past actions, much of which are already being litigated in federal courts, said Peter Kastor, history department chair at Washington University in St. Louis.
他说,更大的问题是两党如何共同执政——特别是如果特朗普无视国会权力,例如扣留议员拨付的资金。卡斯托尔说:“我认为民主党人要采取任何行动惩罚政府至今的行为都将极其困难,无论民主党多么希望这样做。”他暗示,最大的变数可能不在于民主党的策略,而在于共和党少数派的行动。他补充道:“大问题不在于他们是否会抛弃特朗普,而在于他们将如何看待自己作为少数派、夹在一场宏大政治斗争中间的角色。”
The larger question, he said, is how the two parties could govern together — particularly if Trump defies congressional authority, such as by impounding funds appropriated by lawmakers. "I think it will be extremely difficult for Democrats to take any action to punish the administration for its actions until now, much as Democrats may want this," Kastor said, suggesting the greatest wild card may lie not in Democratic strategy, but in the actions of a Republican minority. "The big question is not whether they will desert Trump," he added, "but rather what role they would see for themselves as a minority caught in the middle of a grand political battle."
特朗普在接受《纽约邮报》采访时暗示,他预期会出现一股浪潮,并表示如果民主党全面控制国会,他将“成为否决先生”。但一位长期将妥协视为软弱的总统,现在可能不得不转向。他补充道:“在某个时候,我们大概会达成交易。”
In an interview with the New York Post, Trump suggested he is expecting a wave, stating he will "become Mr. Veto" if Democrats sweep control. But a president who long viewed concession as weakness may now have to pivot. "At some point, we’ll probably make deals," he added.