波利娜·德维特（Polina Devitt）伦敦报道：世界黄金协会（WGC）将今年黄金投资需求增长的预测从先前的40万吨下调至20万吨，理由是对金条和金币的兴趣减弱，尽管该机构上调了对央行购买量的估计。
WGC lowers outlook for gold investment demand growth as bar buying slows By Polina Devitt LONDON, Nov 3 - The World Gold Council cut its forecast for growth in gold investment this year to 200 metric tons from 400 tons previously, citing weaker appetite for bars and coins, although it raised its estimate for central bank purchases.
由于伊朗战争推高了油价并引发了对更高利率的预期，现货黄金价格在周五触及一年低点，自1月创下每盎司5595美元的历史最高纪录以来已下跌29%。
Spot gold prices, which hit a one-year low on Friday, have fallen 29% since reaching a record high of $5,595 an ounce in January as the Iran war boosted oil prices and fuelled expectations of higher interest rates.
世界黄金协会周二在其季度需求趋势报告中表示：“虽然黄金ETF的需求超出了预期，但金条和金币的需求在2026年下半年明显放缓，尽管其仍保持相对韧性。”
"While demand from gold ETFs has exceeded expectations, bar and coin demand, although still relatively resilient, slowed notably in the second half of 2026," the WGC said in its quarterly demand trends report on Tuesday.
尽管债券收益率大幅上升、美元走强且地缘政治紧张局势缓和，但有实物支持的黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）在第三季度仍录得211吨的资金流入。
Physically backed gold exchange-traded funds recorded inflows of 211 tons in the third quarter despite sharply higher bond yields, a stronger dollar and easing geopolitical tensions.
世界黄金协会表示：“这表明财政担忧和更广泛的不确定性在一定程度上抵消了持有黄金的更高机会成本。”
"This suggests that fiscal concerns and broader uncertainty have partly offset the higher opportunity cost of holding gold," the WGC said.
该机构称，周二举行的美国中期选举增添了另一个不确定性来源，并补充说，民主党控制力的增强可能会对黄金形成支撑，尽管政策后果和市场反应仍不确定。
Tuesday's US midterm elections add another source of uncertainty, it said, adding that an increase in Democratic control could be supportive of gold, although both the policy consequences and market reaction remain uncertain.
与ETF的需求形成对比的是，由于散户投资者持观望态度，金条和金币需求同比下降19%至268吨；而珠宝消费量则下降17%至313吨，创下了自2000年该数据系列开始以来的最弱第三季度。
In contrast to ETF demand, bar and coin demand dropped 19% year-on-year to 268 tons as retail investors stayed on the sidelines, while jewellery consumption fell 17% to 313 tons, the weakest third quarter since the data series began in 2000.
与此同时，包括已报告和估计购买量在内的央行购买量上升42%至321吨，创下2024年第四季度以来的最高季度总额。波兰和中国领跑了官方报告的购买量。
Meanwhile, central bank purchases, including reported and estimated buying, rose 42% to 321 tons, the highest quarterly total since the fourth quarter of 2024. Poland and China led officially reported purchases.
这笔买盘将今年迄今的净购买量推高至675吨，促使世界黄金协会上调了2026年央行需求预测。该机构目前预计购买量至少能与2025年购买的848吨持平。
This buying lifted year-to-date net purchases to 675 tons, prompting the WGC to raise its 2026 central bank demand forecast. It now expects purchases to at least match the 848 tons bought in 2025.
世界黄金协会高级欧洲、中东和非洲（EMEA）分析师克里尚·戈保尔（Krishan Gopaul）表示：“今年央行全年的购买总量有可能超过去年。”世界黄金协会提供的黄金供需数据*：Q3'25 Q2'26 Q3'26 q/q % y/y % 供应 矿产金 1,040.7 951.3 1,070.9 13 3 净生产者对冲 -0.2 -18.6 -16.8 - - 再生金 342.7 321.8 314.5 -2 -8 总供应量 1,383.2 1,254.5 1,368.6 9 -1 需求 珠宝加工： 420.0 311.0 340.1 9 -19 珠宝消费 376.4 280.5 312.9 12 -17 珠宝库存 43.6 30.5 27.2 -11 -38 技术： 82.0 80.9 84.8 5 3 电子产品 68.9 68.9 72.5 5 5 其他工业 11.1 10.1 10.4 3 -6 牙科 2.0 1.9 1.9 -1 -6 投资： 554.3 261.2 479.0 83 -14 金条和金币总计 328.6 308.6 267.8 -13 -19 其中金条 251.2 248.7 202.7 -18 -19 其中官方金币 31.6 33.7 35.3 5 12 其中奖章 45.9 26.2 29.8 14 -35 ETF/同类产品 225.7 -47.3 211.2 - -6 央行/机构 226.3 296.3 321.2 8 42 黄金需求 1,282.6 949.5 1,225.1 29 -4 场外交易及其他 100.6 305.0 143.5 -53 43 伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）黄金价格（美元/盎司） 3,456.5 4,506.3 4,262.2 -5 23 *资料来源：经由世界黄金协会获取的金属聚焦公司（Metals Focus）、路孚特GFMS（Refinitiv GFMS）、洲际交易所基准管理机构（ICE Benchmark Administration）、世界黄金协会数据。
"It's possible that we get a higher full-year total for central banks this year compared to last year," said Krishan Gopaul, WGC senior EMEA analyst. Gold supply and demand by WGC*: Q3'25 Q2'26 Q3'26 q/q % y/y % SUPPLY Mine production 1,040.7 951.3 1,070.9 13 3 Net producer hedging -0.2 -18.6 -16.8 - - Recycled gold 342.7 321.8 314.5 -2 -8 TOTAL SUPPLY 1,383.2 1,254.5 1,368.6 9 -1 DEMAND Jewellery fabrication: 420.0 311.0 340.1 9 -19 Jewellery consumption 376.4 280.5 312.9 12 -17 Jewellery inventory 43.6 30.5 27.2 -11 -38 Technology: 82.0 80.9 84.8 5 3 Electronics 68.9 68.9 72.5 5 5 Other industrial 11.1 10.1 10.4 3 -6 Dentistry 2.0 1.9 1.9 -1 -6 Investment: 554.3 261.2 479.0 83 -14 Total bar and coin 328.6 308.6 267.8 -13 -19 of which bars 251.2 248.7 202.7 -18 -19 of which official coins 31.6 33.7 35.3 5 12 of which medals 45.9 26.2 29.8 14 -35 ETFs/Similar products 225.7 -47.3 211.2 - -6 Central 226.3 296.3 321.2 8 42 banks/Institutions Gold demand 1,282.6 949.5 1,225.1 29 -4 OTC and other 100.6 305.0 143.5 -53 43 LBMA gold price ($/oz) 3,456.5 4,506.3 4,262.2 -5 23 * Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council via WGC.