国际能源署（IEA）表示，全球天然气市场的紧张局面可能会一直延续到明年，因为欧洲面临在今冬结束时燃料库存降至历史最低水平的风险，并将需要补充库存。
Tightness in the world’s natural gas market could extend well into next year as Europe risks ending this winter with record-low fuel inventories and will need to replenish them, according to the International Energy Agency.
国际能源署周二在一份报告中称，欧盟各地天然气储存水平偏低，加上中东供应中断持续，意味着该地区将在寒冷月份大量消耗储备。
Low gas storage levels across the European Union, coupled with continued supply disruptions in the Middle East, mean that the region will drain its reserves heavily over the cold months, the IEA said in a report Tuesday.
报告称：“欧盟储存设施可能在 2026/27 供暖季结束时库存降至历史最低水平。”这将“大幅增加 2027 年夏季的注气需求，并可能将市场紧张局面延续到次年。”四年前能源危机爆发以来，欧洲经济一直在接近最高水平的天然气价格中挣扎。尽管欧洲大陆刚刚进入冬季用气高峰期，但明年的风险已经蔓延至 2027 年期货合约，交易商正在对冲价格进一步上涨的风险。
“EU storage sites could close the 2026/27 heating season with record low inventories,” it said. That would “substantially increase the need for injections through summer 2027, potentially extending market tightness into the following year.”Europe’s economies have struggled with gas prices near their highest levels since the energy crisis erupted four years ago. Even though the continent is just starting its peak-demand winter season, next year’s risks are already spreading into 2027 futures contracts as traders hedge against further price increases.
欧洲明年 5 月合约的交易价格高于 2027 年 11 月合约，因为市场正在权衡供应风险，包括中东持续的敌对行动以及新天然气项目可能推迟。该价差近期升至历史新高。
Europe’s next May contracts have been trading above those for November 2027 as the market weighs risks to supply, including continued hostilities in the Middle East and potential delays to new gas projects. The spread reached a record high in recent days.
国际能源署的模拟显示，假设“最坏情况”出现，即通过关键的霍尔木兹海峡的液化天然气（LNG）流向持续中断，且天气转冷，欧盟天然气储存水平可能在 3 月底跌至工作容量的 10% 以下——创下历史新低。国际能源署称，这将使欧洲市场面临晚春寒流的冲击，意味着供暖季结束时价格波动将更加剧烈。
IEA’s simulations show that EU gas storage levels could drop below 10% of working capacity — a record low — by the end of March, “assuming a worst case” of continued disruption to LNG flows via the crucial Strait of Hormuz and colder weather. This would leave the European market exposed to late cold spells, the IEA said, meaning even more price volatility by the end of the heating season.
总部设在巴黎的该机构预计，尽管明年将有新的液化天然气产能投产，且全球对该燃料的需求预计将在2026年下降（其中欧洲下降3%），市场仍将保持紧张。预计鉴于价格水平居高不下，欧洲工厂将削减5%的天然气消费量——这还要加上欧洲可再生能源的持续扩张。
The Paris-based agency expects the market to remain tight even though new LNG capacities are coming online next year and global demand for the fuel is expected to drop in 2026, including by 3% in Europe. The continent’s factories are forecast to cut gas consumption by 5% given elevated price levels — in addition to the continued expansion of renewables across Europe.
国际能源署报告估计，霍尔木兹海峡的贸易流量将在很大程度上保持中断状态，至少持续到今年年底。在此假设下，预计今年全球液化天然气供应将下降3%，为有记录以来最陡峭的年度降幅。
The IEA report estimates that trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz will remain largely disrupted, at least until the end of the year. Under this assumption, global LNG supply is projected to decline by 3% this year, the steepest annual decline on record.