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阿曼寻求将战时意外收益转化为持久经济增长Oman Seeks to Turn Wartime Windfall Into Lasting Economic Gains

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马斯喀特正在为其港口吸引投资者,计划建设一个国际金融中心,并追赶海湾地区的AI热潮。Muscat is courting investors for its ports, planning an international financial center and chasing the Gulf’s AI boom.

阿曼是一个鲜少受到关注的中东苏丹国,正在实现数十亿美元的经济增长,并成为伊朗战争中区域的大赢家之一。

Oman, a Middle Eastern sultanate that rarely draws much attention, is scoring billions of dollars in economic growth and emerging as a big regional winner from the Iran war.

随着冲突继续动荡该地区,地理、外交和经济政策的结合使阿曼免受战争最严重的冲击,并使其能够在该地区发挥更核心的作用。国际货币基金组织预计,阿曼今年经济将增长4.1%(经通胀调整),即使六国海湾合作委员会的其他经济体正在萎缩。

As conflict continues to roil the region, a combination of geography, diplomacy and economic policy have spared Oman the worst of the war and allowed it to play a more central role in the region. The International Monetary Fund projects that Oman’s economy will grow 4.1% this year, adjusted for inflation, even as the other economies in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council contract.

如今,这个拥有540万人口的国家——在很大程度上逃脱了动荡该地区大部分地区的伊朗袭击——正试图将其收益转化为长期的意外之财。马斯喀特正在为其港口招揽投资者,计划建立一个国际金融中心,并追逐人工智能热潮。与此同时,豪华度假村和海滩俱乐部仍在其海岸线上不断涌现。

Now, the nation of 5.4 million — which has largely escaped Iranian attacks that have upended much of the region — is seeking to convert its gains into a long-term windfall. Muscat is courting investors for its ports, planning an international financial center and chasing the artificial intelligence boom. Meanwhile, luxury resorts and beach clubs are still springing up along its coastline.

在过去几个月里,阿曼与伊朗就霍尔木兹海峡的管理举行了会谈。与此同时,中国国家主席习近平近日在北京接待了阿曼苏丹海瑟姆·本·塔里克,凸显了这个海湾国家日益增长的全球地缘政治重要性。

In recent months, Oman has held talks with Iran on the management of Hormuz. At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping has hosted Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq in Beijing in recent days, highlighting the Gulf country’s growing global geopolitical importance.

与此同时,其地理位置使其拥有位于霍尔木兹海峡之外、通向阿曼湾和阿拉伯海的关键港口。所有这些都确保了,即使阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯的主要股指下跌,阿曼的基准指数今年仍上涨了约24%。

Meanwhile, its geographical location has given it key ports that stand outside Hormuz and open into the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. All that’s ensured that its benchmark index has jumped about 24% this year even as major indexes in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have declined.

伦敦政治经济学院教授斯蒂芬·赫托格表示,阿曼提供了一些,但绝非完美的安全边际,这将使重工业投资稍微更具吸引力。但他警告称,战后该国成为物流枢纽是有局限的。

Oman offers some, but by no means perfect, margin of safety that will make heavy industry investment a bit more attractive, according to Steffen Hertog, a professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science. But there are limits to the country becoming a logistics hub after the war, he cautioned.

赫托格表示:“阿曼南部的港口距离伊朗和霍尔木兹海峡很远,因此可以作为亚洲、非洲和欧洲之间更长航线上的经停点。但它们与海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会的其他成员国并不连通,鉴于所需的规模,它们将很难成为全球枢纽。”

“Oman’s Southern ports are far from Iran and Hormuz so could work as stops along longer routes between Asia, Africa and Europe,” Hertog said. “But they are not connected to the rest of the GCC and will struggle to become global hubs given the scale this would require.”

该国并非没有受到伊朗袭击的影响,萨拉拉港的燃料罐在3月遭到无人机袭击。与此同时,阿曼为就如何管理霍尔木兹海峡与伊朗进行谈判所作的努力,招致了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的愤怒。特朗普今年早些时候断言“阿曼会和其他所有人一样表现乖巧”,并威胁称否则“我们将不得不炸毁他们”。中东地区仍然存在诸多不确定性。

The country hasn’t been immune to Iran’s attacks, and fuel tanks at the Port of Salalah were struck by drones in March. Meanwhile, its efforts to negotiate with Iran on how Hormuz should be managed have drawn the ire of US President Donald Trump, who earlier this year asserted that “Oman will behave just like everybody else,” threatening that otherwise “we’ll have to blow them up.”Plenty of uncertainties remain in the Middle East.

特朗普曾多次表示,他将以某种方式解决伊朗冲突,并不时威胁要在期中选举后恢复打击。最近几天,他表示美国仍对会谈持开放态度,并暗示谈判已取得进展,但没有提供任何细节或证据。

Trump has repeatedly said he would resolve the Iran conflict one way or the other, occasionally threatening to resume strikes after the midterms. In recent days, he’s said the US remained open to talks and suggested there had been progress, without offering any details or evidence.

10月2日,在霍尔木兹海峡附近的阿曼海萨卜海岸外航行的船只。Ships off the coast of Khasab, Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz, on Oct. 2.

与海湾其他阿拉伯国家不同,美国没有在阿曼常驻军队或基地,尽管两国确实开展了军事合作。根据可追溯到几十年前的防务协议,美军可以使用阿曼的设施来执行某些行动。

Unlike in the rest of the Gulf Arab states, the US doesn’t have troops or bases permanently in Oman, although the two countries do cooperate militarily. Under defense agreements going back decades, American forces can access Omani facilities for some operations.

冲突期间,X平台上的几个沙特账号对阿曼在地区内的角色表达了不满,这突显了阿曼官员在该地区如履薄冰的处境。

During the conflict, several Saudi accounts on X have voiced frustrations with Oman’s role in the region, underscoring the tight rope Omani officials are navigating in the region.

即便如此,阿曼相对的孤立状态可能会增强其在物流之外的雄心。马斯喀特最近公布了一项建设国际金融中心的计划,加入了其他海湾国家首都吸引华尔街公司的行列。目前细节仍然匮乏,但阿曼的目标是在今年晚些时候开始注册公司,并在2027年全面运营。

Even so, Oman’s relative insulation could bolster its ambitions beyond logistics. Muscat recently unveiled plans for an international financial center, joining other Gulf capitals in seeking to lure Wall Street firms. Details are still scarce, but Oman aims to begin registering companies later this year, ahead of full operations in 2027.

高盛集团中东和北非经济学家法鲁克·苏萨表示:“在伊朗冲突尚未解决、霍尔木兹海峡航运流继续受损且进一步升级风险持续存在的情况下,阿曼经济在短期内很可能会跑赢海湾合作委员会(GCC)的其他成员国。”但他表示,该国的非石油经济需要时间发展,其比较优势可能不会在战后持续。

“Oman’s economy is likely to outperform its GCC peers in the short term while the Iran conflict remains unresolved, the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains impaired and the risk of further escalation persists,” said Farouk Soussa, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economist for the Middle East and North Africa. Still, the country’s non-oil economy will take time to develop and its comparative advantage may not persist after the war, he said.

阿曼外交部外交学院院长谢赫·胡迈德·阿勒马阿尼表示,阿曼的杜库姆、苏哈尔和萨拉拉港口正在巩固该国的地位。

Sheikh Humaid Al Maani, head of the Diplomatic Academy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said the Omani ports of Duqm, Sohar and Salalah are bolstering the country’s position.

他指出,阿曼的港口以及该国与全球航海业合作开展贸易的努力,不仅为该国经济增添了价值,也为“地区和世界”增添了价值,并强调了10月汇聚了地区和国际企业的马斯喀特海上韧性论坛。

Oman’s ports and its efforts to collaborate on trade with the global maritime industry add value to not just the country’s economy, but also to the “region and the world,” he said, highlighting the Muscat Maritime Resilience Forum that brought together regional and international companies in October.

这场由阿曼阿斯亚德集团与该国交通部和外交部共同组织的海上会议,是该国扩大其在贸易和安全领域作用的更广泛努力的一部分。

The maritime conference, organized by Oman’s Asyad Group with the country’s transport and foreign ministries, is part of a broader effort to expand the country’s role in trade and security.

这一推进建立在戏剧性的经济好转基础之上。就在几年前,阿曼的评级被三大评级机构均列入垃圾级,人们对该国可能需要较富裕邻国财政支持的担忧日益加剧。此后,财政改革、油气价格上涨和私有化帮助阿曼削减了债务并恢复了投资级评级。

The push builds on a dramatic economic turnaround. Just a few years ago, Oman’s ratings were placed in junk territory by all three major rating companies and concerns mounted that it could require financial support from wealthier neighbors. Fiscal reforms, higher oil prices and privatizations have since helped Oman cut debt and restore its investment-grade ratings.

交通大臣赛义德·本·哈穆德·阿勒毛阿利表示,阿曼政府通过2024年OQ勘探与生产公司的上市创纪录地筹集了20亿美元,目前正与国际公司和海湾投资者探讨关键码头的股权出售事宜。今年6月,法国达飞集团与阿斯亚德还签署了一项价值4亿美元的协议,用于开发和运营苏哈尔港的一个物流码头。

The government raised a record $2 billion from the 2024 listing of OQ Exploration & Production and is now discussing stake sales in key terminals with international companies and Gulf investors, according to Transport Minister Saeed bin Hamoud Al Maawali. In June, France’s CMA CGM and Asyad also signed a $400 million agreement to develop and operate a logistics terminal at Sohar Port.

国际货币基金组织中东部主任吉哈德·阿祖尔(Jihad Azour)在谈到伊朗战争的影响时表示:“特别是对于这次冲击而言,地理位置、阿曼境外现有港口的基础设施,不仅让阿曼受到的影响较小,同时也受益于这种准入。”他还指出,各项改革减少了债务,并加强了宏观经济的稳定性。

“For this shock in particular, geography, existing infrastructure in ports that are outside allowed Oman to be less affected, but also to benefit from this access,” said Jihad Azour, the IMF’s Middle East director, said about the impact of the Iran war. He also pointed to reforms that reduced indebtedness and strengthened macroeconomic stability.

另一个挑战将是所得税。去年,该国宣布了征收该税的计划,成为第一个这样做的海湾国家,此举旨在拓宽公共收入来源,不再仅依赖石油。沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和卡塔尔等国免税的收入一直是吸引外国工人的巨大磁石,这使得阿曼在吸引人才方面此举充满风险。

Another challenge would be income tax. Last year, the nation announced plans to impose the levy, becoming the first Gulf state to do so in an effort to broaden its sources of public revenue beyond oil. Tax free income in the likes of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar has been a big draw for foreign workers, making Oman’s move risky in terms of talent attraction.

阿曼在全球金融领域仍落后于地区同行。其规模达600亿美元的主权财富基金在达成交易方面不如邻国的同类基金那样活跃,不过私有化进程推动阿曼在2024年的首次公开募股(IPO)规模上超越了伦敦。其证券交易所也在富时罗素(FTSE Russell)的观察名单上,有望升级为新兴市场地位,同时,据该公司发言人透露,国有背书的OQ勘探与生产公司(OQ Exploration & Production)已指定一个银行小组,以探讨主要在中东、东非和北非开展国际收购。

Oman still trails regional peers in global finance. Its $60 billion sovereign wealth fund is a less prolific dealmaker than those of its neighbors, though privatizations helped propel Oman past London in initial public offering volumes in 2024. Its stock exchange is also on FTSE Russell’s watch list for a potential upgrade to emerging-market status, while state-backed OQ Exploration & Production has appointed a panel of banks to explore international acquisitions primarily in the Middle East, East Africa and North Africa, a company spokesperson said.

阿曼也可能在海湾地区的人工智能和数据中心竞赛中找到优势。这场战争暴露了该地区其他地方设施的脆弱性,可能使这个苏丹国成为更具吸引力的替代选择。马斯喀特即将与英国的亚马纳(Yamna)公司签署一项协议,在塞拉莱建设一个大规模的人工智能数据中心,第一阶段预计耗资超过10亿英镑(约合13亿美元)。在数据中心容量以及与国际人工智能公司的交易方面,阿曼与邻国沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋相比仍有显著差距。

Oman may also find an edge in the Gulf’s race for AI and data centers. The war has exposed the vulnerability of facilities elsewhere in the region, potentially making the sultanate a more attractive alternative. Muscat is set to sign an agreement with the UK’s Yamna for a large-scale AI data center in Salalah, with the first phase expected to cost more than £1 billion ($1.3 billion). Oman still significantly trails its neighbors Saudi Arabia and the UAE in terms of data center capacity and deals with international AI companies.

其旅游业也一直在力求走差异化路线。该国依托从山脉、峡谷到海岸线及多样化气候的自然美景,大体上避开了让迪拜成为主要旅游吸引力的那些浮华海滩俱乐部。

Its tourism industry has also sought to differentiate itself. Leaning on its natural beauty, from mountains and ravines to its coastline and varied climates, the country has largely shied away from the glitzy beach clubs that have helped make Dubai a major tourist draw.

尽管如此,仍有迹象表明马斯喀特正试图吸引同类游客。高端海滩俱乐部“尼基海滩”(Nikki Beach)将于明年在马斯喀特开业。在首都以南,特朗普集团(Trump Organization)正在建设一个俯瞰阿曼湾的封闭式社区,作为包含特朗普国际高尔夫俱乐部在内的开发项目的一部分。

Still, there are signs that Muscat is looking to attract some of the same travelers. High-end beach club Nikki Beach is set to open in Muscat next year. South of the capital, the Trump Organization is building a gated community overlooking the Gulf of Oman as part of a development that will include the Trump International Golf Club.

阿曼官员表示,他们在冲突期间看到的一些经济红利将会持续下去。

Omani officials say that some of the economic benefits they are seeing during the conflict are going to stick.

阿尔·马瓦利表示,一些在海湾地区做生意的公司已经决定将出口产能(特别是针对印度和非洲的出口产能)设在阿曼。“因此,这将带来一些长期利益,”他说。

Some firms doing business in the Gulf have already decided to have export capacity, especially to India and Africa, based in Oman, Al Maawali said. “So that will bring some long term benefit,” he said.

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