2026年中期选举将首次考验选民对AI竞赛的态度，提供一个窗口，让我们看到一个小众政策辩论是如何在总统竞选周期来临前转变为一个楔子议题的。
The 2026 midterms will offer the first test of voter sentiment on the AI race, offering a window into how a niche policy debate is transforming into a wedge issue ahead of a presidential campaign cycle.
为何重要：选举结果将揭示，明确以AI监管为竞选平台——或与埃隆·马斯克等科技大亨结盟——是否会成为2028年大选的制胜策略，抑或是一个累赘。
Why it matters: The results will reveal whether explicitly campaigning on AI regulation—or aligning with tech moguls like Elon Musk—is a winning political strategy or a liability for 2028.
- 有一点已经很清楚：候选人越来越无法拿得出半吊子的AI议程。
• One thing is already clear: Candidates increasingly can't afford to have half-baked AI agendas. Here are three major
以下是关于AI政治与政策未来的三大问题，以及我们在选举日将关注哪些竞选以寻找答案。
questions about the future of AI politics and policy and the races we're watching on Election Day for answers. **1.
1. AI议题是否已破圈？中期选举中出现了一种不同类型的AI政治支出。一些团体不再根据候选人的AI立场来支持或反对他们，而是想把AI政策本身变成一个竞选议题。
Did AI break through?** A different kind of AI political spending has emerged in the midterms. Instead of supporting or opposing candidates based on their AI positions, some groups want to make AI policy itself a campaign issue.
- 主张监管的倡导组织“护栏联盟”最近推出广告，针对亚利桑那州、蒙大拿州、北卡罗来纳州和加利福尼亚州的共和党和民主党候选人在AI问题上的立场发起攻击。
• Guardrails Alliance, a pro-regulation advocacy group, recently launched ads targeting Republicans and Democrats over their positions on AI in Arizona, Montana, North Carolina and California.
- 该组织支持密歇根州参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德，后者表示AI是进入选举日前最重要的议题，并将其明确与就业和负担能力挂钩。
• The organization backed Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who said AI was the most important issue heading into Election Day, tying it explicitly to jobs and affordability.
- 民主党团体“共创明天”也在密歇根州、威斯康星州、亚利桑那州和宾夕法尼亚州推出广告，抨击共和党在AI问题上的记录。
• Democratic group Tomorrow Together also launched ads against Republicans' AI track record in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
- 与此同时，相互竞争的AI团体“Public First”和“引领未来”通过关联的超级政治行动委员会（超级筹委会）在近50场竞选中花费了超过5000万美元，但他们的电视和数字广告很大程度上避开了他们试图影响的核心议题：AI。
• Meanwhile, competing AI groups Public First and Leading the Future spent more than $50 million through affiliated super PACs in nearly 50 races, but their TV and digital ads largely avoided the very issue they're trying to influence: AI. These races could offer an early test
这些竞选可能提供一个早期测试，以检验明确以AI为竞选议题在通往2028年的道路上是否为一种可行的政治策略。
of whether explicitly campaigning on AI is a viable political strategy heading into 2028. **2.
2. 埃隆·马斯克是助选还是拖累了候选人？埃隆·马斯克的政治捐款、参与“政府效率部”（DOGE）事务以及与特朗普政府的关系，使他既成为一位强有力的政治支持者，也成为民主党攻击的靶子。他在中期选举中是遥遥领先的最大捐赠者，捐款超过4亿美元。我们正在关注的竞选包括：
Did Elon Musk help or hurt candidates?** Elon Musk's political spending, involvement in DOGE and ties to the Trump administration have made him both a powerful political backer and a target for Democratic attacks. He was the biggest donor in the midterms by far, contributing more than $400 million. Races we're watching include:
- 德克萨斯州第10国会选区：曾代表马斯克处理与“政府效率部”相关事务的共和党人克里斯·戈伯，将面对民主党人凯特琳·鲁克。
• Texas' 10th District: Republican Chris Gober, who represented Musk in connection with DOGE, faces Democrat Caitlin Rourk.
- 堪萨斯州第1国会选区：民主党人劳伦·赖因霍尔德利用其在“政府效率部”的经历，在挑战共和党联邦众议员特雷西·曼的竞选中，抨击马斯克对联邦政府的影响力。
• Kansas' 1st District: Democrat Lauren Reinhold has leaned into her experience with DOGE, criticizing Musk's influence over the federal government in her challenge against Republican Rep. Tracey Mann.
- 俄亥俄州联邦参议员竞选：共和党人乔恩·哈斯特德在与民主党人谢罗德·布朗的较量中，受益于马斯克的“美国政治行动委员会”（America PAC）的支出。
• Ohio Senate: Republican Jon Husted has benefited from spending by Musk's America PAC in his race against Democrat Sherrod Brown.
- 德克萨斯州联邦参议员竞选：与马斯克有关联的支出使得民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科与共和党人肯·帕克斯顿之间的对决，成为检验这位亿万富翁政治影响力的另一场试金石。
• Texas Senate: Musk-affiliated spending has made the contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton another test of the billionaire's political influence. These races could help answer
这些竞选有助于回答马斯克的资金是帮助选出共和党盟友，还是给了民主党一个好用的攻击靶子。
whether Musk's money helped elect Republican allies or gave Democrats a useful target. **3.
3. AI安全运动在下届国会会有多大声量？一小批主张加强AI防护措施的候选人，可能有助于决定下届国会是否会出现一个更具声势的群体，推动反对业界限制监管的努力。我们正在关注的竞选包括：
How loud will the AI safety movement be in the next Congress?** A handful of candidates aligned with stronger AI safeguards could help determine whether the next Congress has a more vocal bloc pushing back against the industry's efforts to limit regulation. Races we're watching include:
密歇根州联邦参议员竞选：埃尔-赛义德主张设立一个新的内阁级联邦机构来监管AI，并禁止超级智能。他利用马斯克的政治参与来攻击共和党人迈克·罗杰斯，后者受益于与马斯克有关联的政治支出。
Michigan Senate: El-Sayed wants a new cabinet-level federal agency to regulate AI and a ban on super intelligence. He has used Musk's political involvement to attack Republican Mike Rogers, who has benefited from Musk-affiliated political spending.
- 科罗拉多州第8国会选区：民主党人曼尼·鲁蒂内尔发起了美国首个全面的AI法案。
• Colorado's 8th district: Democrat Manny Rutinel sponsored the nation's first comprehensive AI bill.
- 加利福尼亚州第11国会选区：民主党人斯科特·维纳的AI透明化立法曾处于一场分裂业界的监管争斗中心，为华盛顿未来的斗争提供了预演。
• California's 11th district: Democrat Scott Wiener's AI transparency legislation was at the center of a regulatory fight that divided the industry, offering a preview of battles in Washington.
- 明尼苏达州第2选区：民主党人马特·利特将为在全国层面推动禁止数据中心建设和保密协议增添一份力量。
• Minnesota's 2nd district: Democrat Matt Little would add another voice to the push to ban data center construction and non-disclosure agreements at the national level. These are some of the races that will help determine the size
这些竞选将有助于决定 AI安全运动的国会联盟的规模和影响力，这是判断2027年及以后AI监管斗争走向的重要指标。
and influence of the AI safety movement's congressional coalition, an important indicator of where the fight over AI regulation is headed in 2027 and beyond. The bottom line:
核心看点：许多因素将塑造全国各地竞选的结果。但相互竞争的AI派系将迅速宣称胜利、为失败找借口，并总结经验教训，为2028年做准备。
Many factors will shape the outcomes of races across the country. But competing AI factions will be quick to claim victories, explain away losses and draw lessons about what worked ahead of 2028.