共和党的2024年选举联盟正在实时瓦解。两年前，唐纳德·特朗普总统凭借在年轻选民和有色人种美国人中的大幅得票增长，强势重返白宫。根据PF Global为《政治报》（POLITICO）进行的最新民调结果，如今这些关键群体似乎正因一场不得人心的伊朗战争及其低迷的支持率而离他而去。
Republicans’ 2024 coalition is cracking in real time. President Donald Trump roared back into office two years ago after making major gains with young voters and Americans of color. Now those key groups appear to be moving away from him amid an unpopular Iran war and his lagging approval ratings, according to new results from the POLITICO Poll conducted by PF Global.
大约9%的2024年特朗普选民计划今年投票给民主党人，而仅有略高于2%的前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯选民现在计划支持共和党人。
Roughly 9% of Trump 2024 voters plan to cast their ballot for a Democrat this year, compared with just over 2% of former Vice President Kamala Harris’ voters who now plan to back Republicans.
这种转变的根源在于两个对特朗普获胜至关重要的群体缺乏热情：拉美裔和年轻人。
Underlying that shift is a lack of enthusiasm from two groups central to Trump’s win: Latinos and young people.
去年底，56%的拉美裔特朗普选民自认为是“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）共和党人。截至今年10月，仅有37%的人仍如此认同，显示出对这一标签的不满——该标签代表总统一些最忠诚的支持者。
At the end of last year, 56% of Hispanic Trump voters identified as MAGA Republicans. As of this October, just 37% still do, revealing a frustration with the label that denotes some of the president’s most loyal supporters.
去年底，50%的20至29岁年轻特朗普选民表示肯定会去投票。截至今年10月，仅有38%的人这么说。
At the end of last year, 50% of young Trump voters ages 20 to 29 said they were certain to vote. As of this October, just 38% say this.
对于即将到来的选举之夜，这是一个令人担忧的信号，因为共和党正争分夺秒地在全美范围内保住深红州席位，并激发MAGA基本盘的投票热情，以避免不可想象的惨败。
It’s an alarming sign for the party heading into election night, as Republicans race to save deep-red seats across the map and juice turnout among the MAGA base to avoid unthinkable losses.
竞选现场的忙乱应对暴露了担忧的程度。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊周二将对得克萨斯州南部进行最后一轮竞选巡回，共和党人一直在竭力安抚拉美裔选民对大规模驱逐和经济的担忧。共和党官员担心持续的通胀和高物价会影响所有种族的工薪阶层选民，包括他们极其担心不会以足够强劲数量现身投票站的年轻男性。
The scramble on the campaign trail reveals the extent of the concern. Speaker Mike Johnson is making one final campaign swing through South Texas on Tuesday, where Republicans have been racing to assuage Hispanic voters’ concerns over mass deportations and the economy. GOP officials are fretting about the impact of lingering inflation and high prices on working-class voters of all races, including young men they’re scared to death won’t show up to the polls in strong enough numbers.
他们还在最后关头向一系列拥有大量黑人人口的南方州投入数百万美元——如密西西比州、南卡罗来纳州，甚至路易斯安那州——这些州的选民似乎正以创纪录的数量涌向投票站，共和党试图巩固这些选票。
They’re also pouring millions of last-minute dollars into a series of southern states with large Black populations whose voters appear to be surging to the polls in record numbers — like Mississippi, South Carolina and even Louisiana — to shore them up.
“我们在特朗普领导下建立的联盟他妈的已经不存在了，”特朗普的长期盟友、亚利桑那州共和党前主席吉娜·斯沃博达说。
“The coalition that we built under Trump doesn't fucking exist anymore,” said Gina Swoboda, a longtime Trump ally and former chair of the Arizona Republican Party.
白宫一直在试图阻止特朗普选民联盟的流失：总统接连造访多个以红州为主的州份，并在最后几天举行了一系列电话集会。
The White House has been trying to stem the bleeding within the Trump coalition of voters: The president has barnstormed a series of largely red states and is holding a flurry of tele-rallies in the final days.
“两年前，特朗普和其他共和党人之所以能赢得那些选民，是因为他们对拜登和哈里斯感到沮丧；两年后，情况可能比两年前好一些——但他们依然感到担忧，”共和党前威斯康星州州长、2016年总统候选人、现任保守派组织“青年美国基金会”负责人斯科特·沃克说。
“Two years ago, Trump and other Republicans had a play with those voters because they were frustrated with Biden and Harris; two years later, things might be less bad than they were two years ago — but they're still concerned,” said Scott Walker, the Republican former governor of Wisconsin and 2016 presidential candidate who now leads the conservative Young America's Foundation.
白宫发言人劳伦·比斯表示，特朗普“奔走全国”为共和党竞选，并与“激进左派民主党人”形成对比。“特朗普总统是共和党毋庸置疑的领袖、最佳传播者和无可匹敌的动员者，”比斯补充道。
White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said Trump has “crisscrossed the country” campaigning for Republicans and drawing a contrast with “the radical-left Democrats.”“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party,” Bis added.
共和党全国委员会发言人娜塔莉·巴尔达萨雷在一份声明中表示，“特朗普政府兑现了对美国人民的承诺”，总统“奔走全国宣传这些成就”。共和党2024年联盟的持久性是该党未来面临的关键考验。共和党在年轻、拉美裔和黑人选民中取得的进展，使该党在华盛顿实现了三权掌控（trifecta of power），保住这些增益将是共和党争取继续掌权的关键。这些群体支持度的回落可能迫使共和党在为2028年总统大选制定制胜公式时重回绘图板。
Natalie Baldassarre, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, said in a statement that the “Trump administration has delivered on its promises to the American people” and the president “has barnstormed the nation to tout these achievements.”The durability of Republicans’ 2024 coalition is a crucial test for the party’s future. Republicans’ inroads with young, Latino and Black voters propelled the party into a trifecta of power in Washington, and keeping those gains will be key to the GOP’s bid to hold onto power. A regression in support from those groups could send Republicans back to the drawing board as they craft a winning formula for the 2028 presidential election.
顶尖共和党人极其担心失去对西班牙裔选民的掌控，因为他们试图避免在南德克萨斯遭遇惨败、在佛罗里达州关键众议院选区失利等更多挫折。
Top Republicans are incredibly worried about losing their grip on Hispanic voters, as they try to stave off a bloodbath in South Texas, losses across key Florida House seats and more.
根据这项民调，在去年11月至今年10月之间，自认为是“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动一员的西班牙裔特朗普选民比例下降了19个百分点，这是特朗普核心基本盘的一部分。虽然这些选民中仍有三分之二打算在中期选举中投票给共和党人，但他们对特朗普议程的不满显而易见。
There’s been a 19-point drop between last November and this October of Hispanic Trump voters who identify as MAGA, part of Trump’s core base, according to the poll. While two-thirds of these voters still intend to vote for Republicans in the midterm election, their dissatisfaction with Trump’s agenda is clear.
调查发现，西班牙裔特朗普选民比非西班牙裔特朗普选民更有可能在过去十年里投过民主党的票——并且认为特朗普政府的大规模驱逐行动过于激进。
The survey found that Hispanic Trump voters are more likely than non-Hispanic Trump voters to have voted for Democrats in the past decade — and think the Trump administration’s mass deportations are too aggressive.
就在一个选举周期前，特朗普凭借西班牙裔选民对边境和经济的担忧，在南德克萨斯州大获全胜；德克萨斯州共和党人去年重新划分了国会选区地图，使南德克萨斯州的席位对共和党更加有利。
Just one election season ago, Trump romped to victory in South Texas over Hispanic voters’ concerns about the border and the economy; Texas Republicans redrew the congressional map last year to make seats in South Texas even more favorable.
但据四位国会山共和党人透露，特朗普政府在白宫高级官员斯蒂芬·米勒的推动下实施的强硬移民执法，导致西班牙裔选民回流。他们被授权匿名讨论内部对话。这损害了曾经看似极佳的机会，原本共和党有望击败民主党籍众议员维森特·冈萨雷斯和亨利·奎亚尔，同时也让共和党籍众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹陷入险境，她所在的选区是去年重新划分的，特朗普在2024年曾以18个百分点的优势赢下该区。一群西班牙裔共和党议员持续直接向约翰逊和白宫高级官员表达担忧。
But the Trump administration’s heavy-handed immigration enforcement, championed by senior White House official Stephen Miller, has sent Hispanics swinging back, according to four Hill Republicans, who were granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations. It’s harmed what once seemed like prime opportunities to unseat Democratic Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, while endangering GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in a newly redrawn district the president won by 18 points in 2024. A group of Hispanic GOP lawmakers have continued to raise concerns directly to Johnson and senior White House officials.
一位德克萨斯州共和党策略师说：“汽油价格如果是2.50美元而不是3.30美元，我会感觉好些。但要在移民与海关执法局（ICE）抓走某人的叔叔时，去劝说他日子过得更好了，祝你好运吧。”该策略师被授权匿名发表坦率言论。
“Would I feel better if gas were $2.50 instead of $3.30? Yeah. But good luck convincing a guy things are getting better while ICE is picking up his uncle,” said one Texas Republican strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly. The White House in response provided statements from Texas GOP Reps.
白宫作为回应，提供了德克萨斯州共和党籍众议员帕特·法伦、布兰登·吉尔、罗尼·杰克逊和兰斯·古登为米勒辩护的声明。
Pat Fallon, Brandon Gill, Ronny Jackson and Lance Gooden defending Miller.
杰克逊说：“西班牙裔美国人将继续看到，共和党正在为他们家庭最关心的议题而战，而斯蒂芬·米勒绝对是冲锋在前的领军人物。”
“Hispanic Americans will continue to see that the Republican Party is fighting for the issues that matter most to their families, and Stephen Miller is absolutely leading the charge,” Jackson said.
资深国会山共和党人在过去几周密集探访，试图挽救岌岌可危的南德克萨斯州众议院席位。但他们私下认为，几天前就已达到这样一个节点：无论投入多少资金都无法避免即将到来的惨败。
Senior Hill Republicans have been trying to salvage the imperiled South Texas House seats in a flurry of visits over the past few weeks. But they privately believe they reached the point days ago where no amount of money would stave off the impending disaster.
“关键在于经济，”科克兄弟资助的LIBRE倡议主席、总部设在德克萨斯州的共和党策略师丹尼尔·加尔萨说。加尔萨指出，过去十年里，共和党在拉美裔选民中的得票率稳步上升，这对该党而言是长期利好。但他表示，自特朗普重返白宫以来，独立拉美裔选民感到幻灭，尤其是在经济问题上。“我认为他们的预期更高，”他补充道。
“It’s the economy,” said Daniel Garza, the president of the Koch-backed LIBRE initiative and a Texas-based Republican strategist. Republicans’ vote share of Latino voters has increased steadily over the last decade, Garza noted, which is a long-term win for the party. But he says independent Latino voters have grown disillusioned since Trump’s return to office, especially on the economy. “I think they had higher expectations,” he added.
一年前，一半支持特朗普的年轻选民确信他们会在今年的选举中投票。
One year ago, half of young Trump voters were certain they’d vote in this year’s election.
但到了今年春天，这一数字大幅下降：曾支持特朗普且确定会去投票的年轻人比例下降了11个百分点。
But this past spring, that number dropped sharply: the percentage of young people who’d backed Trump who were certain they’d vote dropped by 11 points.
早在3月，伊朗战争爆发后不久，年轻共和党支持者就开始表达不满，认为总统违背了一个核心竞选承诺。其他共和党人预测，如果战争持续超过几周，其后果将在投票箱前反噬该党。
As early as March, shortly after the war in Iran began, young GOP supporters began to voice their frustrations that the president had broken a core campaign promise. Other Republicans predicted that if the war lasted longer than a few weeks, its consequences would come back to bite the party at the ballot box.
这一合唱团中包括播客主持人乔·罗根等有影响力的声音，他对年轻男性有显著影响力。在2024年大选前夕，他曾在节目中分别接待过特朗普和副总统万斯。
That chorus included influential voices like podcaster Joe Rogan, who has significant influence over young men. He had hosted both Trump and Vice President JD Vance on his show in the lead up to the 2024 election.
一些共和党人担心，他们仅两年前组建的大帐篷团队已不可挽回地分裂——而缺乏强有力的可负担性信息要为此负责。
Some Republicans are concerned that the big-tent team they formed just two years ago has been irreparably splintered — and their lack of a strong affordability message is to blame.
“我们忘了我们是一个民粹主义政党，”一位佛罗里达州的共和党操盘手说，此人获准匿名，以便坦率地谈论共和党联盟的现状。南佛罗里达地区，尤其是迈阿密-戴德县，是特朗普那个多元化、大帐篷式政党的核心：这位总统在2024年让这个长期由民主党把持的县首次自1988年以来倒向共和党。
“We forgot that we're a populist party,” said one Republican operative in Florida who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the state of the GOP coalition. Areas like South Florida, and Miami-Dade County in particular, were central to Trump’s diverse, big-tent party: the president flipped the longtime Democratic county for the GOP for the first time since 1988 in 2024.
“我们从一个非常民粹、草根、大团结式的政党，变成了这种近乎精英主义的共和党，”他们补充道。
“We went from being a very populist, scrappy kind of kumbaya party to this kind of almost elitist Republican Party,” they added.
但即便民主党看到了大获全胜的前景和共和党联盟瓦解的迹象，一些人也警告说，他们自己也未曾找到一个能在未来选举周期中延续的制胜信息。
But even as Democrats see the prospect of significant wins and a crumbling GOP coalition, some warn they, too, haven’t found a winning message they can build on in future cycles.
“这就像谈恋爱：你和某人分手，拉开了一点距离，然后就开始美化对方了，”民主党策略师迈克尔·塞拉索说，他是伯尼·桑德斯和皮特·布蒂吉格总统竞选活动的资深人士。“我认为民主党人在夏天都非常清楚地意识到，只需退到一边去。因为我们在看着选民表现得像是在说：‘我想结束这段与特朗普的关系。’”
“It's like being in a relationship: You break up with someone and you have a little distance, and then you start romanticizing them,” said Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist and veteran of Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaigns. “I think [Democrats] all have recognized, very much in the summer, just to move out of the way. Because we're watching voters being like, ‘I want out of this relationship with Trump.’”