The giddy mix of anticipation and despair that Democrats are experiencing today should be familiar to them. It’s the old “nauseously optimistic” feeling that has been their lot in every election since 2016.

All the dashboard indicators point toward big gains for the blue team in Congress and state capitols from coast to coast, but, of course, that’s what they thought when Hillary Clinton was atop the ticket a decade ago. Even as they contemplate races that would have sounded laughable just a few months ago — battlegrounds in Mississippi and South Carolina or blue Kansas — Democrats can’t escape the dreadful fear that it’s all a mirage.

Indeed, those raised expectations may lead to a sense of disappointment, even if Democrats have what should be seen as a successful midterm. As one big-time party operative, a veteran of two presidential campaigns now knee-deep in Senate races this cycle, put it to me, “Another Ted Lasso election. It’s the hope that kills you.”But for most Democrats, the line between success and failure is pretty straightforward: Either Democrats will win back the Senate or they won’t. A Democratic House being a foregone conclusion in the minds of members of both parties, a Senate majority stands as the pass-fail test for a party still stinging from its 2024 defeat.

Democratic nominee Roy Cooper, the former governor of North Carolina, is expected to prevail in his state, inching Democrats closer to their goal.

Can Democrats win four of the seven remaining Senate tossup seats of Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska? Even supposing a midterm polling miss on par with the largest of the century — the 2006 surveys that, taken together, understated Republican support by about 3 points nationally — Democrats lead in an adjusted average of high-quality polls in every one of those battlegrounds except for Iowa. Without weighting for a big polling miss, Democrats lead in all seven.

If the blue team ends up with 53 of 54 Senate seats, it won’t matter to rank-and-file Democrats whether the beautiful dream of flipping South Carolina or Mississippi never comes to pass. They would be too busy celebrating the first Democratic senator elected by Texas since 1988 — who’d also be the first non-incumbent since 1970.

And just like in 2006 when the polls may have missed but Democrats still flipped both chambers with lots of red-state victories, the party’s current base would feel similarly emboldened about the next presidential cycle. Would Democrats have been so willing to throw over Clinton — nearly a prohibitive favorite when the 2008 cycle began — for then-Sen. Barack Obama had their party not just flipped Senate seats in Montana, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia (then still a red state) and Pennsylvania?

Probably not. A great midterm for Democrats would make primary voters less risk-averse and more willing to take a chance on an inspirational but untested choice. The line for the next “generational political talent” would stretch around the block.

So, what if this year’s blue wave crashes into a red wall? To hold the Senate, Republicans would need to see an average polling miss bigger than any of the presidential years when President Trump was on the ballot. But, hey, we don’t have a ton of great state-level polling, especially in seldom-surveyed places like Alaska and Kansas. Plus, Elon Musk has spent something on the order of a half-billion dollars to keep the Senate for his party. If the Republicans narrowly manage to keep a majority, maybe even with the help of a party-switching Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), what would the 2028 Democratic electorate think?

First, would come the bitter recriminations. Imagine a world where Michigan made the difference and Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) became the villain of a narrative about how moderates — especially pro-Israel moderates — are to blame for the unmet expectations of 2026. Or, the counterargument from the mainstream that Democratic Socialists and the far left foisted candidates like Abdul El-Sayed and Troy Jackson on unwilling general electorates and cost the party its chance to make the most of 2026. If today feels like a bust to Democrats, it’s going to make the opening act of the coming presidential contest that much uglier.

Who that would help in the longer run, we can’t know for sure. The already-radicalizing left wing would grow in intensity and, therefore, power. “We tried it your way,” they would say, “now we’re going full Robespierre.”But, a miss this week would also chasten early-state primary voters and lead them to believe that safer candidates — the kind that succeeded in places like North Carolina and Georgia — are the way to go.

Perhaps that’s a world in which a Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) or another establishment pick seems prudent. Would Democrats even become willing to think about a red-state moderate if they thought it would finally bring back the long-lost “blue wall” states?

Remember the lessons of recent primary elections in the Democratic Party: the political professionals and the activist core is substantially to the left of the party’s median voter. Certainly, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) or another progressive populist with a committed, compact plurality could roll through a crowded field in the same way Trump did in 2016.

But, Democrats in the 2010s and 2020s have typically been better at strategic voting than Republicans. For all the talk of the rise in socialism and radicalism, a look across the party’s battleground-state offerings mostly shows a party willing to try to give persuadable voters what they appear to want.

Does that fade with Trump as a lame duck? Democrats, rightly or wrongly, don’t think that Vice President Vance will make a formidable opponent in 2028. Perhaps without the threat of Trump, Democratic leaders will find primary voters unwilling to think about electability. After all, given the track record of “safe” choices in 2016 and 2024, voters may just be ready to let their freak flags fly, whatever happens today.

But make no mistake, that process begins today and it starts with a struggle over claiming credit or placing blame over the results that Democrats right now are so nauseously optimistic about.