
我最近一次访问以色列恰逢该国10月的大选,但这只是巧合。在与将军、情报官员、企业家和大学生进行了10天的讨论后,我想起了摩西·达扬的传记作者沙布泰·特维特对这位以色列著名独眼士兵兼外交官的描述:“他的一只眼睛闪烁着对生命的巨大渴望,另一只眼睛在黑色眼罩下熄灭了,已死。有时他似乎象征着以色列本身,在那里生与死是亲密的伙伴。”
By Eliot A. Cohen My most recent visit to Israel overlapped with its election in October, but that was a coincidence. In 10 days of discussions with generals and intelligence officers, entrepreneurs and university students, I was reminded of what Moshe Dayan’s biographer Shabtai Teveth wrote about Israel’s famous one-eyed soldier and diplomat: “His one eye glimmered with an enormous lust for life, his other eye was extinguished beneath the black patch, dead. At times he seemed to symbolize Israel itself, in which life and death are close partners.”
2023年11月,哈马斯袭击的恐怖记忆犹新之际,我曾访问过以色列——超过800名平民和300名士兵丧生,251人被劫持为人质。我看到了一名残疾老妇被活活烧死在床上的房间;一名父亲在孩子面前被杀害的房屋,散落的玩具和玩具。只有血迹依照犹太教仪式被一丝不苟地清除干净。那是一个处于深度公开创伤中的国家。
I had visited Israel in November 2023, while the horrors of the Hamas onslaught were still fresh—more than 800 civilians and 300 soldiers killed, 251 hostages seized. I saw the room where one disabled old woman had been burned alive in bed; the house where a father was killed in front of his children, the scattered toys and playthings. Only the bloodstains had, in accordance with Jewish ritual, been painstakingly removed. It was a country in deep and open trauma.
创伤不再显露在表面。交通拥堵回来了,餐馆客源不错,加沙地带周边的集体定居点正由逃离者和新志愿者重建。然而,创伤现在就像一条自流井河:流淌在表面之下,却力量巨大。
The trauma is no longer on the surface. The traffic jams are back, the restaurants are reasonably full, and the collective settlements along the Gaza envelope are being rebuilt by those who’d fled them, along with new volunteers. The trauma, however, is now like an artesian river: running below the surface, but immensely powerful.
大选证明了这一点。尽管有重要的实质性问题悬而未决——例如限制司法系统独立性的努力,或全民国民服役的问题——但大选关乎人格:总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡是应被憎恶还是被信任;极右翼领导人伊塔马尔·本-格维尔和贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇是否将留在政府中;以色列是否应信任加迪·艾森科特,这位备受尊敬的退役将军却是政治新手,他在战斗中失去了一个儿子和两个侄子。
The election offered proof of that. Although important substantive issues were at stake—efforts to restrict the independence of the judicial system, or the question of universal national service, for example—the election was about personalities: whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was to be loathed or trusted; whether the ultraright leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich would retain a place in government; whether Israel should trust Gadi Eisenkot, an admired and respected retired general but a political novice, who had lost a son and two nephews in the fighting.
外交和国家安全政策并非主要关切。以色列人比三年多前要强硬得多。那些认为两国方案在短期内可行,而非与巴勒斯坦人达成一种权宜共存模式的人,只存在于政治边缘。在加沙和黎巴嫩激进建立缓冲区——黎巴嫩南部大约10公里范围内遭到毁灭性破坏,平民被迫撤离——获得了普遍认可。大多数以色列人支持的那种用武克制,是基于最狭隘的审慎考量,而非基于外界舆论。
Foreign and national-security policy were not major concerns. Israelis are far harder than they were more than three years ago. Those who believe that a two-state solution is achievable in the near term, rather than a modus vivendi with the Palestinians, are found only on the political margins. The aggressive establishment of buffer zones in Gaza and Lebanon—roughly 10 kilometers of devastation in southern Lebanon, as the civilian population is pushed out—receives general approval. Such restraint in the use of force as most Israelis favor is based on the narrowest considerations of prudence rather than on foreign opinion.
以色列人根本不在乎欧洲领导人的批评,也不在乎那些软弱且做秀的姿态,例如他们承认一个其统治者二十年未举行过选举的巴勒斯坦国。以色列人无视那些只会发表声明和宣言,却懒得亲自访问以色列的外国政客。年轻以色列人争相进入以色列国防军精英部队;战争一爆发,飞往以色列的航班挤满了回国服役的以色列人,而离境航班搭载的主要是外国人。因此,以色列人对那些远在异国他乡、从未经历过战争、裹着克菲耶头巾占领校园的学生毫无好感。
Israelis do not give a damn about criticism from European leaders, or feeble and performative gestures, such as their recognition of a Palestinian state whose rulers have not called an election in two decades. Israelis ignore foreign politicians who make statements and proclamations but do not bother to visit their country. Young Israelis compete to get into elite units in the Israel Defense Forces; when a war breaks out, the planes coming home are jammed with Israelis returning to serve in the IDF, while the ones leaving carry mainly foreigners. Thus, Israelis have little use for students in distant lands who are innocent of the experience of war, wearing keffiyehs and blocking campuses.
他们鄙视那些称其在加沙的军事行动——确实凶猛——为“种族灭绝”的人。自2023年10月8日起,近500名以色列国防军成员在加沙阵亡,数千人受伤。以色列人清楚,人道主义援助一直通过他们的领土流入加沙;加沙人口在过去10年里实际上有所增长;哈马斯虽不再拥有那支利用历史上最大军事隧道网络、装备精良的2.5万步兵大军,但仍控制着加沙,仍在战斗,仍执着于其摧毁以色列国家的终极目标。
They despise those who call their campaign in Gaza—which was indeed ferocious—genocide. Nearly 500 members of the IDF have been killed in Gaza since October 8, 2023, and many thousands more wounded. Israelis know that humanitarian aid has been flowing into Gaza through their territory; that Gaza’s population has actually grown over the past 10 years; and that Hamas, although no longer possessing an army of 25,000 well-equipped infantry exploiting the biggest military tunnel network in history, is still in charge in Gaza, still fighting, and still clinging to its ultimate goal of destroying their state.
在许多方面,以色列人已经转向内向,其后果对他们而言可能是危险的。例如,他们并不太在意反犹太主义言论和犯罪袭击的浪潮,这些浪潮席卷了过去难以想象会发生此类情况的国家,如英国和美国。即便他们关注,也仅仅将其视为其信念的确证,即世界上最古老的仇恨在发挥作用,而非对他们所作所为的反应。
In many ways, Israelis have turned inward, and the results may be dangerous for them. They do not pay a great deal of heed, for example, to the waves of anti-Semitic rhetoric and criminal attacks that have swept countries where they would once have been unthinkable, such as Britain and the United States. To the extent that they do, they merely see it as confirmation of their belief that the world’s oldest hate is at work, rather than a reaction to anything they’ve done.
更糟的是,这种悲观的看法导致许多人,包括军政领导人,对公共外交彻底失望并放弃努力。他们不了解部分约旦河西岸定居者在虐待当地巴勒斯坦人时表现出的流氓行径,对其国家国际地位造成了多大损害。他们未能充分认识到美国两党支持率崩塌的意义,也未能充分认识到犹太社区和福音派基督教社区中一些原本坚定支持者的疏远。
Worse, this grim view leads many of them, including military and political leaders, to give up on public diplomacy as hopeless. They do not understand how much the thuggery of some West Bank settlers brutalizing local Palestinians has damaged their country’s standing. They do not fully appreciate the significance of the collapse of support in both American political parties, or the alienation of some of their previously committed supporters in the Jewish and evangelical-Christian communities.
“全世界都反对我们”,这曾是上个世纪一首嘲讽歌曲的副歌,如今在他们看来似乎成了既定事实。他们为与阿拉伯世界部分国家以及印度等国关系的加深感到自豪,甚至可能过度自豪,却冒着失去欧洲和美国这些最有价值的安全与贸易伙伴的风险。
“The whole world is against us,” once the refrain of a mocking song from the past century, seems to them a given. Proud, possibly overly proud, of their deepening relationships with some parts of the Arab world and with states such as India, they run the risk of losing their most valuable security and trading partners in Europe and the United States.
他们预见到新一轮战斗即将来临。特别是在黎巴嫩边境,真主党已完成重组并开始重新武装。尽管真主党在2023年之前曾计划发动类似于但规模大于10月7日的边境袭击,但它正在改变策略。乌克兰和波斯湾的无人机战争正蔓延至以色列,光纤制导无人机使新缓冲区的相关性大打折扣。以色列人知道,伊朗仍在伺机而动,并拥有能够穿透其复杂但终究有限的防御系统的新型武器。
They see renewed bouts of battle approaching. On the Lebanon border, in particular, Hezbollah has reconstituted and begun rearming. But although it had planned, before 2023, an assault along the border similar to but on a larger scale than that of October 7, it is shifting its approach. The drone wars of Ukraine and the Persian Gulf are coming to Israel, with fiber-optic-guided drones that render the new buffer zone less relevant. Israelis know that Iran is still waiting for its opportunity, and has new weapons that can pierce their country’s sophisticated, but nonetheless limited, defenses.
黑色眼罩的阴影尚存。但也有另一面。以色列经济令人惊讶地继续以每年4%的速度增长。许多以色列人——不仅仅是极端正统派——依然生育三个或更多孩子,这与欧洲和亚洲发达社会的低生育率形成鲜明对比。以色列在世界幸福指数中排名第八,仅次于挪威,却领先于瑞士、爱尔兰和加拿大。
Thus far the black eye patch. But there is another side as well. Israel’s economy has, astonishingly, continued to grow at 4 percent annually. Many Israelis—not just the ultra-Orthodox—continue to have families of three or more children, a stark contrast to the birth dearth of advanced societies in Europe and Asia. Israel ranks eighth in the world happiness index, just behind Norway but ahead of Switzerland, Ireland, and Canada.
以色列或许是“创业国度”,但其强大的关键在于社会凝聚力。一位美国商人在谈到组织文化差异时咧嘴一笑指出,在他曾工作过的纽约金融界,员工都在办公桌前解决午餐。而在以色列,他的公司发放餐券,让员工能一起出去吃顿像样的午餐。无论是世俗还是宗教的大家庭,都会聚在一起吃周五晚餐。当我和一位同事在黎巴嫩边境附近的一个路口等候另一位朋友时,每一辆路过的车——毫无例外——都会停下来询问我们是否需要帮助。
Israel may be a start-up nation, but the key to its strength is social cohesion. An American businessman I asked about the difference in organizational culture noted with a grin that in the New York financial world, where he had worked, employees ate at their desk. Here, his company gives chits to workers so that they can go out together for a proper lunch. Extended families, secular as well as religious, gather for Friday-night dinners. When I waited with a colleague at a road junction near the Lebanese border to meet another friend, every car that passed—without exception—stopped and asked if we needed help.
我的行程始于对里希曼大学的访问,这是以色列唯一的一所私立大学。创始人乌里埃尔·里希曼曾任特拉维夫大学法学院院长,他厌倦了以色列僵化的高等教育官僚体系。他在30多年里打造了一个拥有最先进工作室、教室和实验室的壮观校园。现任荣誉校长的里希曼正全力筹建一所医学院。他朴素的办公室,以及现任校长的办公室,都设在这座光鲜校园里一栋简陋的单层小楼里。
My trip began with a visit to Reichman University, Israel’s only private university. Uriel Reichman, its founder, is a former dean of Tel Aviv University law school who hated Israel’s stodgy higher-education bureaucracy. He created, over 30 years, a spectacular campus with state-of-the-art studios, classrooms, and laboratories. Reichman, now the president emeritus, is hard at work building a medical school. His modest office, and that of the current president, sits in a small, spartan one-story building on the gleaming campus.
这是经过设计的:他和继任者会与师生不期而遇,师生也会与他们撞个正着。校园里有不错的食堂,但没有教职员工俱乐部。
By design, he and his successor bump into students and faculty, and they into them. There are nice cafeterias on campus, but no faculty club.
我的访问恰逢一场纪念仪式,悼念1995年遇刺身亡的总理伊扎克·拉宾,他在1967年六日战争中担任参谋长并取得胜利。这位身材修长的大学校长、一名专攻并购的律师,向聚集的学生们发表了一次振奋人心的演讲。这些学生神情愉快、体格强健,即便是因服兵役而残肢缺臂者也是如此。不远处矗立着纪念他们阵亡战友的碑石,其中包括一名在加沙被劫持为人质者。
My visit coincided with a memorial ceremony for Yitzhak Rabin, the prime minister assassinated in 1995, who had been the victorious chief of staff during the 1967 Six-Day War. The lanky provost, a lawyer whose expertise lies in mergers and acquisitions, gave a powerful speech to the assembled students, a cheerful and fit-looking lot, even those with missing limbs from their military service. Nearby stood memorials to their fallen fellows, including one who had been taken hostage in Gaza. He quoted Rabin’s speech given barely two weeks after the Six-Day War, while receiving an honorary doctorate from Hebrew University. The victories had been spectacular; Rabin’s tone, however, was somber.
他引用了拉宾在六日战争结束仅两周后、接受希伯来大学荣誉博士学位时的演讲。胜利极为辉煌;然而拉宾的基调却沉重。他问道:“以暴力为职业的人,与代表文明和文化的学术界,有什么共同之处?以暴力为职业的人,与精神价值,有什么共同之处?”对拉宾而言,答案在于“整个犹太民族独特的精神”。他接着说:“我们发现在我们的战士中,越来越多地出现一种奇怪的现象。他们的喜悦不是完全的,其中渗透着不少悲伤和震惊。有些人根本不庆祝。前线战士不仅目睹了胜利的荣耀,也看到了胜利的代价——倒在他们身边、流着血的战友。而且我知道,敌人付出的可怕代价,也深深触动了我们许多战士的心。犹太民族可能从未学会、从未习惯体验征服和胜利的快感,因此我们带着复杂的心情来接受它。”
He’d asked: What is there in common between military activity and the academic world which represents civilization and culture? What is there in common between those whose profession is violence, and spiritual values? For Rabin, the answer lay in “the unique spirit of the entire Jewish people.”He’d continued: We find, increasingly, a strange phenomenon among our fighters. Their joy is not total, and more than a little sorrow, and shock, permeates their celebration. There are those who do not celebrate at all. The warriors in the front lines witnessed not only the glory of victory but also its price—their comrades who fell beside them, bleeding. And I know that the terrible price paid by our enemies also touched the hearts of many of our men deeply. It may be that the Jewish people never learned, never accustomed themselves to experience the thrill of conquest and victory, and so we receive it with mixed feelings.
1967年的以色列人头顶悬着大屠杀的恐怖阴影。如今,那些事件的活生生记忆几乎已消逝殆尽。然而,新的魔鬼缠绕着一个经历了更多历史——其中有些卑劣,有些可怕——的以色列,自拉宾发表演讲以来更是如此。这个国家有更多令人羞耻之处,也有更多令人自豪之处。但令人惊讶的是,在这一切之下,包括在拉宾那冷静演讲的活生生精神中,存在的坚实共同基础比人们想象的要多。
Hovering over the Israelis of 1967 were the horrors of the Holocaust. Today the living memories of those events are almost gone. New demons, however, haunt an Israel that has lived through more history—some of it sordid, some of it horrible—since Rabin gave his speech. The country has more things to be ashamed of, and a greater amount of things to be proud of. But surprisingly, beneath it lies, including in the living spirit of Rabin’s sober speech, more solid common ground than one might think.